At this current stage in China - Taiwan - US relations, how deep do you think US’ commitment to Taiwan actually is?
In your opinion, how far would the US go to protect Taiwan’s independence?
(I think it depends on how many weapons Taiwan are willing to buy from US?)
Thanks for any feedback!
At this current stage in China - Taiwan - US relations, how deep do you think US’ commitment to Taiwan actually is?
In your opinion, how far would the US go to protect Taiwan’s independence?
(I think it depends on how many weapons Taiwan are willing to buy from US?)
Thanks for any feedback!
The way I see it, if there still was a chance the US would be stirring up shit in the region to shore up more arms deals. Then again maybe Taiwan is on the back burner as there are deeper pockets in the region.
It’s as deep as the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). There is lots of discussion about it here on this board. Search for it and you’ll get a lot of information, and can add your own thoughts, and others will probably also add.
If push came to shove, my guess is the US commitment to Taiwan would be nearly zero, so hopefully Taiwan doesn’t make any moves thinking the US has it’s back or something…
These BBC reports are kind of relevant.
bbc.com/news/world-asia-35097054
America has done diddly squat about this for years
But…but the Japanese did underestimate the US response during WWII. Taiwan would a major challenge.
If the US is committed to anything, it’s committed to preventing a unilateral resolution of the straits issue. That’s not going to end without a fight.
Not very deep as long as Obama is in The White House…
Some people . . .
The USA is run by corporate lobbyists who love doing business with China (all that cheap slave labor, you know). Their only interest in Taiwan is selling stuff (ie chemical-laden American beef, and soon poisonous pork and chicken…and weapons). If push comes to shove, they will abandon Taiwan like a stray dog with rabies. Anyone who thinks that the USA will go to war against China on Taiwan’s behalf is engaging in self-hypnosis.
Of course they wouldn’t go to war on Taiwans behalf but on their own interests behalf. If China gains control of Taiwan they will dominate the shipping lanes far out into the Pacific Ocean and semi surround Japan. Taiwan would be the unsinkable carrier . So for that reason alone I expect the US not to give much ground in Taiwan proper. The strategy in the South China Sea however shows how far behind the curve they have been, effectively allowing China a free hand.
The only recent major development seems to be their establishment of Guam as a major base now.
The commitment means a lot in itself too. If the US backs down from its long-standing commitment to Taiwan, just for a start, what will it fight China over? That could be a real can of worms.
I’d say the US commitment is very solid and is only growing. The tide has turned is US-China relations, from a passive acceptance of China’s rise, to one where the US is actively challenging China’s aggressions in the region, and more and more considers China an adversary rather than ally.
Furthermore, the US military is dead certain that Taiwan is a vital ally. Again, giving the turning tide this carries more weight than even a few years ago.
Anyone convinced the US commitment to Taiwan is sliding is simply not paying attention to what has been happening these past 5 years. It’s not 2008 anymore.
Perhaps. But one could also say that anyone who thinks the US would somehow defend Taiwan against China isn’t paying attention to the extreme level that the US and Chinese economies are interdependent. What’s the US going to do to China? What’s China going to do to the US? Neither has any economic incentive or power over the other.
If China made a move against Taiwan, I think we’d quickly see that economic reasons not to intervene outweigh any past promises to this little island. Everything we see is just rhetoric and speeches. In the real world money talks, and China is far more important than Taiwan will ever be in the global economy.
We won’t know for sure until the 2016 elections are over. Maybe not even then.
The unbearable lightness of the Lightworker is all we have for now. It’s strictly JV foreign policy. The current administration is simply not to be trusted on anything. Don’t try to read the Rorschach Test in Chief. There’s less there than meets the eye.
Varsity foreign policy presumably was the trillion dollar, 30,000 dead/severely wounded War About Nothing in Iraq and Ted “Carpet Bomb’em” Cruz’s big plans.
Thanks but I’ll pass.
It would vary according to the administration, department, and official. In general, State is pro-China while the military understands the value of Taiwan. Bill Clinton understood this too, as Hillary presumably does as well. George W. was foolish enough to get bogged down in West Asia; Obama tried to do an “Asian Pivot” but it hasn’t meant very much.
I suspect there are secret agreements in place–dating from the Nixon administration–to the effect that China promises not to invade Taiwan, while the USA promises to limit its military involvement.
Again, this simply ignores develops over the past 5 years. China wants to gain hegemony over the Asian region. The US does not want that, which means continuing to protect Taiwan. The rhetoric is changed. We rarely hear the VSP telling us we must sell out Taiwan.
China shot itself in the foot with its actions in the South China Sea. No one, well except maybe the Cameron government, has any illusions about the peaceful riser.
I don’t think the economic argument to abandon Taiwan is very strong or compelling when pitted against allowing Chinese control over half the earth.
Exactly, once they, and the rest of the word, know the US won’t do anything to back up its commitments, what happens then?
Does anyone really think China would be acting the way they are in a sphere they consider theirs by right if they knew the US wouldn’t do anything?
Again I think it’s just public rhetoric. Behind closed doors I’m sure the US and China have already worked out the details of how situations around the world should proceed. China knows their place, as does the US. China is not Iraq, or Syria, or even Russia. China is a big deal, economically, militarily, as well as growing influence around the world. The reason China hasn’t done anything is the same reason the US wouldn’t either. They both have economic reasons to stay in their lane right now…