Do you think America will come to Taiwan’s aid if China attacks? Should it?

Politics Taiwan Politics
874

Why wouldn’t the US back its commitment? People forget that the US has security agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and S Korea. They do not want the region destabilized by the Chinese, which any attack on Taiwan would. They have spent far too many years and trillions of dollars to preserve this stability.

Btw, what did the Chinese do recently when the US made it clear it would patrol the South China Sea with military vessels? They said they would never accept this, and then when it happened, they did nothing. Their bluff was called and leaders are beginning to recognize that the Chinese always bluff and never retaliate.

It’s a new world.

875

There is no official commitment between the US and Taiwan and no official agreement between the US and Taiwan that the US will do anything.

It’s all based on U.S unilaterally.

876

Thanks to Senators Barry Goldwater R-AZ and Richard Stone D-FL, who saw how shortsighted and dishonorable it was to abandon Taiwan, R.O.C.

877

How can most of you guys be in Asia for so long and not recognise the changing order in the region?

Taiwan - apart from some die-hards - will roll over the first time a JH-7 drops something loud and metallic near the Presidential Palace.

This is not the '60’s. The Taiwanese no longer have the stomach to fight their evil brothers and sisters from the mainland. The American military is well aware of this and are busy cultivating other friendships - ones where the population has a stronger backbone and a long history of antipathy towards the Chinese - in SE Asia.

878

The die-hard TI-foreigners here on Forumosa will stand up and fight…for a seat on the first flight out of here. Some of them may go to Beijing or Shanghai to teach English. They know which side of the bread is buttered. Those not able to land another plumb English teaching gig will be flipping burgers at McDonald’s by day, bravely volunteering as keyboard warriors by night, urging the Taiwanese to fight to the last man, woman and child.

879

Another noob who thinks it’s still 2008. Lol.

880

It’s hard to know what any of us will do, until the time comes. And then events–and people–may surprise us.

881

Another noob who thinks it’s still 2008. Lol.

Yup. That’s me. A noob :astonished:

I hate to boast (OK, that’s a lie) but I suspect that;

a) I’ve been involved in Asian affairs for slightly longer than you have, and

b) my (daily) contacts in Asia at an ‘appropriate’ level are somewhat better than yours, and

c) you should make a couple of FOI applications to the State Department on current thinking with regard to TW.

But hey, crack on with the doofus remarks if it makes you feel better :stuck_out_tongue:

882

If the best reply you have is an argument from authority then my ridicule stands. But I will reply seriously if you make a serious post. Someone with your vast experience should have more to contribute to this thread than “the Taiwanese will roll over.”

883

China is not Cuba. Uncle Sam knows a full on conflict with China could presage world war 3. And therefore Uncle doesn’t really want to commit to anything. Preferring to see what the situ is really all about first. Wise I think.

Who knows what the US will do? Much of it may depend on who is in the Oval Office as well.

There’s a lot of pieces on the chess board. And one doesn’t even know who is playing .

884

Doing nothing was what the US did last time round when it was Japanese expansionism in the pacific region, that didn’t stop world war 2 and an attack on pearl harbor. I don’t think the US want to go down that path again either.

885

Just because someone might disagree doesn’t mean it’s not a valid point. I for one agree with it. I do think Taiwan would roll over the first sign of trouble, and rightfully so. I also think the US won’t do a damn thing other than sabre rattling, again rightfully so.

I don’t know what that means. Perhaps if the world has so fundamentally changed since 2008 that it’s worth an lol and a noob label, call me a noob too and then please walk me through it. What exactly are you talking about?

886

Dear MM,

Let me offer a brief explanation of how my world works.

People pay me - quite handsomely - for my opinions on matters regarding Asia. As they continue to do this I assume my opinions have value to them.

You aren’t paying me anything. Therefore whatever I’m prepared to share with you will be of equivalent value to your payment.

Permit me to point you, in one small way, to some information in the public domain;

thediplomat.com/2013/01/did-chin … er-killer/

and ask you some simple questions.

Do you think the Chinese needed to paint a mock up in the desert when an ‘X’ to calculate the CEP would have served the same purpose?

If the model size was, in fact, the same size as an American Nimitz class, what message to you think the Chinese were attempting to send?

Do you think the Chinese may have carried out further unreported tests on moving targets at sea since 2013 to prove the terminal guidance aspects of their system?

How do you think the American military may have amended their plans to support TW in the light of the knowledge that a potential adversary has the ability to directly hit a carrier?

Do you think they still feel supporting TW is, strategically, worth the potential pain, or are there other games in the region far more beneficial to the long term interests of America for them to pursue?

In conclusion, Taiwan belongs to China. It will revert to China. The only matters currently being debated are ‘how’ and ‘when’.

I look forward to your reply. Who knows, you may have something to teach me?

887

I understand that people pay you for what you are doing here on this forum but is it really so lucrative these days? Lol.

888

But I will reply seriously…

And this is your serious reply?

I understand that people pay you for what you are doing here on this forum but is it really so lucrative these days? Lol.

MM, I’m paid for my advice elsewhere, not for speaking with you or with anyone else on Forumosa. I do this in the hope you may learn something and I may learn something. Clearly, you have learnt nothing. But I have learnt something about you :slight_smile:

Take care, my little chum. It’s a scary world for simple souls out there…

Lol (I added this 'cos its inappropriate use seems to mean something to you. Though what that is, god alone knows.)

889

The US will support Taiwan if the time comes and if Taiwan does not create a situation independently by declaring independence or something of the sort. The US will meet a Chinese threat at whatever level is needed to meet that threat.

The US is not giving up on Taiwan and looking at other interests in Asia. The US has interests all over Asia including but not limited to Taiwan.

The US believes the people of Taiwan should make their own decisions and will stand by Taiwan to allow “the people” to make those decisions through a democratically elected government.

890

Working for that bonus, eh? :laughing:

891

Too true. Working damn hard, brother!

In fact I’ve been promised a 10% increase on my final monthly fee if I can drag you into further discussion on this subject. Plus I get 100 NTD for every Lol you post and 500 NTD per emoji.

MM, please, keep it up. Without you I’d have to buy my own Pocky.

God, I just love Pocky. Can we start a thread on the chocolate crispy biscuitiness that is Pocky? Yum!

892

tango42, I get where you’re coming from, really I do.

American has been one of the truly great builders of Empire. They’ve supported their friends, stabilized entire regions and faced down several nations who would have done them great harm. We in the West have much to be grateful for.

I was recently in Colorado visiting a facility. At the end of my assignment I decided to hire a dirt bike and drive back East. It took me 18 days (I detoured a little…) but the sheer size of the country, it’s permanence and stability, was immense. It’s a beautiful land populated by a fine people. It felt like it had been this way forever, and would forever remain so.

But all Empires fall. The America of today is not the America of 15-20 years ago, and certainly not the America of the last 80 years. Instead it’s measured, it’s thoughtful and it’s aware its time is finite. Managing a decline is an art as much as a science, and America is learning the skills and compromises necessary to protect its homeland.

The policies of yesterday are not the policies of today or tomorrow. Taiwan knows it will have to stand on its own two feet if China seeks to press its claim by force. It will have help, but it will not be defended by any Western power. For better or worse, those days are gone.

893

There’s a certain personality type that shows up repeatedly on discussion forums that will show no respect whatsoever to those with even slightly differing viewpoints, and when confronted with a reasoned argument will respond in this fashion:

“You’re an asshole. Ha, ha! LOL!” :roflmao: :roflmao: :discodance: :discodance:

They don’t get what that says about their own emotional maturity. It’s useless to argue, and best to ignore them.