And while I don’t think there is a snowballs chance in hell the US helps Taiwan if China forces the issue militarily, I actually don’t think it should or will ever come to that. I really have no idea what the hold up is. It would be so much better for both China and Taiwan to just get it done already.
As Quest said, it’s not a matter of if, it’s just how and when. I hope the answers to both those questions is peacefully, and soon.
I am going to make one last post (maybe, lol), which is not directed at the 007 cast member who is " paid handsomely Mr Bond" for what he does.
I have no problem with people who think Taiwan is going to capitulate. I think they are wrong, and I have argued why repeatedly. But Brent, in 2015, I have as much patience with people who still claim this as you do the liberals on the Muslim threads.
Anyway, why 2008? Because with the win of Ma Ying-jeou, the Taiwan independence cause was looking like it would be swept into that dustbin of history. Remember Obama’s choice for NIC chair (wasn’t accepted thankfully), Charles Freeman? a man who famously said that Taiwanese were building a bridge to China. This was such conventional wisdom at the time that the media almost never challenged the claim.
How’s that going now? Even then it was obvious he was wrong as all surveys showed Taiwanese identity, and the desire to maintain de facto independence growing. But it took many years before the ripples in the emerging new civil movements would give clear voice to what almost everyone in Taiwan really felt. And it also took the efforts of a lot of new academics and writers to challenge the narrative until it is no longer a journalistic reflex.
2015 is a different world. The media is changing its writings on Taiwan and China, the US has accepted the opposition winning (something they visibly did not in 2012), China has admitted its policy for Taiwan has failed and has shown it will not have a better one any time soon (as no one can speak truth to power), China is creating hostilities around the region (most recently with Korea), their persecution of Christians is beginning to anger conservatives in the US, and most importantly, it is all just going to get worse. I follow China and Taiwan matters on a variety of media, from the Diplomat, to Jane’s, to CSIS reports, to the Sinocism newsletter, and nothing is positive.
What the west’s (well, minus the UK) emerging wariness will mean for Taiwan is an interesting question. But if people want to keep arguing that Taiwan will inevitably unite with China, and the only reasons they have are because Taiwanese are Chinese, they are all brothers across the waters, and of course China is big, then I am going to roll my eyes. Because that position, is not a reasoned argument. It’s something people say to appear tough and worldly and if they have been saying this for decades, no matter what the circumstances, then yes, they don’t deserve much respect.
You know these types from the economic threads. Hyper-inflation is always around the corner. The end of fiat currency is upon is. Blah blah blah.
If there was no chance in hell of the US helping why would China not steam roll
In?
Logically either your premise is wrong or you are right and there are some secret unknown factors at work.
I go for option 1 in this case that your premise is wrong and China suspect that the US would not roll over so easily. Indeed for the US to roll over would go against their own security arrangements in the region as well as the act of Congress from 1979 (so would drag in both congress and presidency) it wouldn’t make any sense and indeed would put the US in a much weaker position afterwards.
China is asserting its ‘sovereign Rights’ over more than Taiwan and Taiwan is a very strategic base to do this from.
The other unknown factor is Taiwans willingness to fight. I think it’s foolish to think that Taiwan would simply roll over when faced with an attack from China. They have a substantial military and a large segment of the population would be virulently anti Chinese especially after an attack on the island. They might not be able to defend the island very long, but it wouldn’t necessarily be a walk in the park.
All in all nobody knows the reaction to a Chinese attack, its very unpredictable and Chinese leaders would be taking a huge personal risk in ordering an attack. It’s much lower risk to try and take over Taiwan by gradual economic and political efforts with backing of military might, a tried and trusted strategy of the US itself after all.
Malvinas… cough… sorry Falklands.. cough…
MM, I’m minded that the forum rules prevent ad hominems, so I’ll simply wish you all the best in dealing with the dissonance between the views you express here and the reality of the world in which you’re living.
I must also note my disappointment at the lack of Lol’s in your post and the complete absence of emoji. Does this mean I’m going to have to dig deep into my own pockets for my Pocky in January, or would you be kind enough to produce another highly entertaining Lol and emoji-laden missive?
Not sure exactly what you mean here, icon. We probably all have very different assumptions about that conflict.
Yep. I refer to the taking sides thing, not the conflict itself. I do think though it serves as a warning not to expect a deux macchina.
Think what you want, but that was well stated. Kudos. :bravo:
If you really believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.
Yeah, I would believe fake real estate agent is another one of your fake occupations.
Yeah, I would believe fake real estate agent is another one of your fake occupations.
stamps feet
I WANT LOL’S!!! I WANT EMOJIS!!!
runs off screaming
Sorry, HHII. In the excitement of fending off MM I rather overlooked your contribution to this bunfight. So, to answer your points…
China isn’t ‘steamrollering in’ at the mo’ 'cos there are a myriad of other factors to consider.
Firstly, there is no causa belli in play at present. A reasonable person would wait until after the elections in TW and see if someone is silly enough to offer one.
Secondly, America is running into an election year. The actions of Presidents (and their advisers) on the way out or coming into office are somewhat unpredictable. The Chinese do not like unpredictability.
Thirdly, China does not yet posses the required superiority in men and material to ensure victory should they misjudge the American response. When they do - and we’re probably speaking 3 - 5 years here - this consideration ceases to be a restraining factor.
Fourthly, the Chinese are, at the moment, playing a game with less risk in the South China Sea. They’ll let that game run for a while and see what transpires before setting off after the main prize.
On the question of the Taiwanese ability to fight; yes, recently there has been a popular and widespread movement supporting democracy. However, to suggest that this represents a willingness of the young (and not so young) to risk seeing their wealth and future lost, their homes destroyed, their industry in ruins and their bodies lying bleeding, shattered and stinking in a gutter somewhere is simply a step too far, especially as an orderly transfer of power to mainland China is likely to result in nothing worse than a situation similar to that currently existing in HK.
As for the quality of the Taiwanese military; I’m not giving away any secrets if I suggest you to look at the real-world serviceability of much of its fighting equipment. On paper it looks good. In reality? Somewhat less than good.
Whenever China makes their move it involves risk. But the leader who secures the retaking of Taiwan will have re-unified China and set about fulfilling the destiny of the Han people (and probably earned his very own chapter in history). Do you really think there’s a leader in China who won’t be prepared to take that risk when the balance of probabilities suggests success?
I don’t. And, more relevant in terms of the OP’s thread title, neither do the wise heads in the State Department and at the Pentagon.
Not bad quest for a guy who claims he knows no Mandarin, is not interested in Mandarin, has only been to Taiwan a couple times and knows so little about the people he has to ask an online forum if he will experience racism on the MRT when he moves here. But do continue. I haven’t seen such a good Walter Middy impersonation in a long while.
What kind of logic is that? Just because there would be no opposition that means they should or would attack? Do you realize how many places China or the US, or Russia for that matter can “steam roll into” and there would be no opposition for?
You think that because they haven’t steam rolled in to Taiwan it means it’s because they fear opposition? Have you not followed like any of the conflicts around the world for the last 30 years? China has reasons for taking it slow because they have actual plans for Taiwan that involve Taiwan still being Taiwan afterwards. The economy, the people, the connections in the region. They want Taiwan, not the dirt.
Perhaps you’re not aware of the history of Hong Kong, but there are parallels. What good would it have done China to steam roll into Hong Kong and blow the shit up? They wanted Hong Kong to STILL be Hong Kong when it became part of China. Is it really so hard to imagine they have similar plans for Taiwan? A military solution for Taiwan is the LAST thing China wants, thankfully.
As far as Taiwan fighting back, that’s a joke right? Don’t be confused into thinking because Taiwanese men do a year or two of so called military service, that they are willing and able to defend the country against China. They may sound rah rah in the media and they may talk a good game, but after the very first bomb drops the Taiwan Military will unilaterally shit their pants and be looking for a way out. And that’s not an insult, it’s totally rational and i’d do the same thing. Our generation is not wired for war. The young generation in Taiwan would defend their country to the death against China about as aggressively as young Canadians would die fighting against the US. Which is to say, they wouldn’t.
Young Taiwanese men are not religious fanatics that can be convinced to give their life for their flag. The vast majority would just say fuck it, I’d rather be alive and live in a world not a whole lot different than Hong Kong than be dead for a flag that I don’t care about. This isn’t defending our way of life and our very lives against the Nazi’s. Nobody in Taiwan is willing to die to avoid becoming at worst similar to Hong Kong. 
China doesn’t have to invade Taiwan and kill people. Taiwan will be part of China in due time, and it will benefit both economies greatly.
MM, here’s some more Walter Mittyness for you to chuckle over…
Left school at 16 after parents divorced, joined army, got shot, decided I’d like a safer occupation, studied hard, eventually got into Med School, qualified but quit after two years when I discovered I hated patient-facing medicine, started writing on heath and athletic conditioning specifically cardio issues, travelled extensively, met ex-military expats, started writing about defence issues, got more introductions, became friendly with policy makers, more writing / lecturing, acted as consultant to various organisation when asked. Today I just take assignments from people or organisations I like when asked.
I have no Mandarin, I have no interest in learning Mandarin (my wife speaks excellent English, though our child will be brought up bi-lingual), I have been to TW for a grand total of 18 weeks in the past four years, and my query about racism on the MRT was genuine 'cos I was very surprised to see the video. We had planned to move to TW so I raised the question as I have little contact with ‘normal’ Taiwanese. The military are not ‘normal’ 
I’m sorry if my life and experience pisses you off somewhat. It’s not my fault that you chose to spend a fair portion of your life in the backwater that is Taiwan. Perhaps you now regret it, who knows? What your writing does reveal is that you aren’t a happy fellow. I respectfully suggest you cease reading my posts because I have no intention of modifying my opinions or diminishing my experiences merely to make you feel better about your life choices.
And, please, remember the LOl’s and emojis. I miss them.
Now, now, quest. No one responds to multiple taunts unless they are enjoying the exchange. So enough with the nastiness, okay?
If you would be forthright for a moment we could continue a substantive debate on the topic at hand. So you are a medical consultant for the military? Not bad. A whole lot less impressive than a super secret high level policy advisor, but still a very interesting career, and were I still in Taiwan I would like to have a beer with you (on me of course) and hear your story.
Anyway, enjoy your time in Taiwan. I’m sure you will learn lots with or without me to guide you.
WRONG: Some people respond to multiple taunts because they genuinely seek to bring about some form of understanding. Enjoyment has nothing to do with it.
WRONG: I have been forthright in expressing my opinions in all of my postings on this forum from day 1. So much so that TC has seen fit to delete one of them. I still think you were wrong, TC, but let’s not go into it again…
WRONG: Read my post. I’ve not been directly involved in medicine for many years, though I am asked stuff now and again and occasionally write on the subject.
WRONG: I am a ‘super secret high level policy advisor’ though it’s neither super, secret nor particularly high level. I write and lecture about what I see, what I hear and what I can reasonably deduce. I’ve actually written for two of the magazines you quoted as your sources on Asian affairs. Ironic, huh?
WRONG: Having ‘a beer’ with you is not something I would consider even for the briefest of moments. You have nothing to teach me, unless I wish to be schooled in grumpiness and general bad manners. And I don’t.
WRONG: Had you read some of my previous posts you would have seen I’m moving to Burma, not Taiwan.
But thank you for your time. Now run along and try to find some happiness somewhere. Don’t assume everyone is an idiot or trying to deceive you. Be nice to strangers, lest your turn a potential friend into someone who views you as… well… I’m in danger of straying into ad hominem territory, aren’t I?
Well, enjoy Burma, or wherever you end up. Maybe the monks can teach you some self-control. You do seem a pretty wound up guy. My advise: learn not to lose control so easily. Don’t play your hand so quickly before strangers. And don’t defend yourself with long responses. That actually makes you look like you are hiding something. I kind of expected a secret agent who spends lots of time around hard men would understand this already, but life is full of surprises.
Anyway, I wish you well on your quest, my dear quest, and I’ll still buy you a beer should we meet (your drinking it is optional). 
OMG! At last you get things right!
Easily wound up? WTF do you mean by that, huh? Just WTF! TELL ME! TELL ME!
Lose control easily? Nooooooooooo! Do you hear me? Nooooooooooo! walks off shaking and sobbing to himself
Play hand quickly? Is there any other way? Life is short!
Time around hard men? Ha! Those guys are more in touch with their emotions than most girls I know.
Long responses? Yup, I absolutely ADORE the sound of my own voice and enjoy writing long missives which no-one will read. In fact I could probably continue expanding on this subject for, oh, perhaps another 1,500 words. Interesting fact: a friend told me that in the ‘60’s he used to receive $1 per word for an article in a ‘mainstream’ magazine. The rate in 2015? $1 per word. Life sucks 
OTOH, the fees for lecturing are just crazy. I recently pocketed $10,000 (why are fees always expressed in USD?) for two one-hour lectures on heart rate training, plus an hour or two hanging around afterwards chatting to the ‘important’ people. I had to Wiki what a Dato’ was. Bloody Malaysians. And I just know you want to know what sort of music I listen to. So here we go. I interviewed this ultra-talented kiddie for a teen magazine as a favour for a friend who was sick and couldn’t do the hotel interview session. Lousy pay but super-interesting girl. Ah, if only I could wind back the years to the days when I had hair and no wrinkles… youtube.com/watch?v=rVO2byp-tWg Is this enough? I think is probably is. I like ending sentences in ‘it’ and ‘is’ 'cos it upsets the grammar nazis And speaking of grammer nazis, may I advise you that if you want to offer advice you spell it with a ‘c’ not an ‘s’.
So why doesn’t China invade? A few big reasons:
(1) China’s political stability largely depends on its economic stability, which in turn depends on the US economy. Millions of angry, unemployed young men on the street would be bad for the leadership. A war might get rid of them, but it would have to be with a country they have a land border with–not Taiwan, because they don’t have enough ships to transport so many.
(2) Not enough ships to transport enough troops here. Also, for the ships they did send, it would be just like D-Day, if the English Channel were about ten times wider and the Germans had satellites to watch everything with. NB: You can’t take over a country just by bombing it–that just succeeds in radicalizing the local population. (It might be possible to pressure the island’s leadership to negotiate, though.)
(3) Given that the US and Japanese militaries know about the China threat, what other surprises do you suppose they have prepared for the PRC? (On the other hand, military technology is changing very rapidly, and this could work against the US and Japan. For example, weaponized drones may make aircraft carriers vulnerable and hence obselete.)
(4) China is surrounded by other countries which are nervous about it. The last thing it wants, diplomatically speaking, is to scare them into better defense relations with each other.
(5) China’s leadership is hardly monolithic. Whatever faction tried to attack Taiwan, might be secretly betrayed by members of rival factions who got wind of it, in order to diminish the power of the ruling faction. I’m not saying they WILL do this, but they MIGHT do this, which makes it dangerous for the leadership. (Any PRC government which tries to take over Taiwan, but fails, will lose enormous face, especially if the result is a de jure independent Taiwan.)
One more thing: China’s aging population basically means that if they’re going to invade Taiwan, they need to do so within the next 20 years, or else they’ll be bogged down in domestic problems.