Do you think Taiwan will become a poor country in the future?

Taiwan seems to becoming less and less competitive in its manufacturing sectors. Of course semiconductors are an exception. It seems many other manufacturing activities are losing to their counterparts in Southeast Asia. Taiwan’s problem seems to be the inability to develop most of its industries to become world-renowned. Therefore, its salaries and wages have to be kept low to ensure decent profitability for corporations.

No.

Countries don’t need to have ‘world renowned’ companies to be developed.

Why do we need manufacturing?

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Typical low information bad take. Manucfacturing in Taiwan is growing. Much more so than most other countries.

https://i.imgur.com/4TqftHa.jpg

And people need to stop with the SE Asia bs. SE Asia is not going to happen. At least not for a very, very long time. Other than Singapore they are all decades behind and are not catching up at all.

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If you travel around Taiwan you will see so much new investment in new factories and expanded industrial parks.

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Taiwan is less competitive in some export-oriented sectors because of rising costs (mostly caused by a very strong NTD). However it is true that innovation is not valued here, and there are only some niche products - Giant bikes springs to mind - that are going to work well for the foreseeable future.

Taiwan’s economy is weird. The costs of living are rising and I suspect this is due to certain locked-in inefficiencies. I don’t think Taiwan will become poor as such. But it will probably become very expensive to live an ordinary life.

Export value is at all time high despite TWD performing better, and it is still one of the most undervalued currencies in the world.

Cost of living is rising everywhere thanks to covid.

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Comparing a basket of typical goods, I don’t see this. IMO it’s slightly overvalued, but you could argue the toss about that forever. The fact remains that the average person has a significant outlay from his salary for housing and food - probably close to 90% for an ordinary jobbing guy - and this seems to be due to structural problems that are either intentional (eg., the real-estate merry-go-round) or haven’t been adequately addressed (agriculture and energy sectors).

True. The upheavals are global. I was attempting to look past that.

No, this isn’t arguable.

No American or Taiwanese economist would say it’s overvalued.

Taiwan is constantly put on currency manipulator lists by the US.

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Please give examples of what you’re talking about.

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yeah, well, economists mostly wouldn’t be able to find their own asshole with both hands and a flashlight.

Why do you think the NTD is undervalued? I mean, what makes you think that is so, not “what’s the reason”.

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Look at the difference in prices between Taiwan and other advanced countries.

That’s what I already said. A basket of consumer goods is overpriced relative to other countries. That wasn’t true 10 years ago, but it is now.

Sorry what basket of goods are you looking at?

Gucci bags and cars only?

Pick any you like, but I was referring mainly to food and housing. 90% of other goods are sourced from China and therefore have an extra layer of weirdness built-in.

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Food is waaaaaaaaay cheaper than in the US.

Housing is more difficult to compare because population density is higher.

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I’ll check and get back to you.

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Please

That is thoroughly untrue. Income is far higher in Taiwan adjusted for purchasing power parity because basket of goods is far cheaper in Taiwan.

That is completely untrue.

https://imgcdn.cna.com.tw/www/gpho/20190824/201908240001L.jpg

Consumption on housing and food is 30-40% in both Taiwan and Britain. The composition is nearly identical across the board.

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The economy grew 8% year on year in the first half.

This is probably the oddest time to be asking such a question.

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Subjectively I feel food (groceries ) in Britain would be much much cheaper as their supermarket sector is very competitive. In Europe also. And I know when I check Numbeo (you can compare countries and cities) that is indeed the case.

Housing…If you must take into account property prices…And you must since most people want to own their house…Taiwan is more expensive than the vast majority of counties out there in terms of what you get for your money and also in terms of price/income.

I know housing prices went up a lot and now it’s food. Those two account for a big wedge of outgoings. Rents are climbing steadily . And again it’s not just the price but the VALUE of what you are paying for.

Transport , fuel insurance and taxes are still lower than most developed countless…Thank God …Otherwise we would be in trouble.

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