Does AI make you concerned?

Ok, so they’ll reverse engineer, copy, and make some adjustments, but not actually get ahead of the competition with the technology except for the ability to scale.

They’re spending, the argument could be made that innovation in batteries had been accomplished in China, but basically these are all imported accomplishments that they have reproduced at scale

In some cases, they have overspent and over invested with minimal returns. I’ve certainly read about that for solar panels, EVs, HSR, and infrastructure…

I would be more worried about lax safeguards than cheap power. What if their nuclear power goes the same route that their coronavirus research did?

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The ability to scale is in itself a large part of this particular technology, not some minor thing. That’s what’s needed for training the models by RLHF — humans annotating the stuff.

Again, scale is important here because it directly governs things like the economics of battery recycling/materials recovery (only really feasible on a large scale).

Besides, Chinese researchers are doing a ton of research in materials science and related fields (I would imagine more than the U.S. now, whatever metric you want to use). It’s kind of lazy to describe all of that as “basically these are all imported accomplishments”.

They are apparently years behind. They cut off using Nvidia chips for AI to develop their own domestic chips. This is a huge gamble because it’s betting long term China can make a generational leap to catch up and this is also assuming the west doesn’t make a generational leap or 2 while China happens to make those huge jumps.

Short term this will hurt their AI development as no matter what they claim, we all know their domestic chips aren’t as good.

Have they invented a new type of battery?

High speed magnetic trains were invented by the Chinese, or what?

Have they invented a way to get energy from the sun that is not a solar panel? Or, any type of renewable energy? Did you know Canada sold nuclear reactors designed in the 60s to China?

Have you seen the new models of their space rockets? Would you say those are something different from SpaceX?

My generalization may be general, but it is fair. And well informed.

And my point is that they are unlikely to be the first to come up with something new. After binary computers I guess the next different thing is quantum, they didn’t come up with that. Whatever is going to come next, that is DIFFERENT, in AI or otherwise, is unlikely to come from China.

What do you mean? The question doesn’t really make sense in the context of how batteries (or photovoltaic cells, etc.) are developed, and I don’t think it’s well informed.

A battery isn’t one single invention but rather a collection of usually-incremental improvements in various anode/cathode/electrolyte materials and ways of manufacturing them then packaging them into cells. Those things are happening around the world, including China.

I would say that, yes, Chinese researchers have been at least as involved as researchers from other countries in developing those, and the entirety of the credit doesn’t belong to whichever country the researcher(s) that first wrote about using lithium or sodium or whatever in a primitive battery happened to be born in. A ton of additional development work needed to happen after that to “invent a new type of battery”.

Some examples of Chinese developments in sodium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries for EVs and stationary storage:

Similarly, what does this even mean? Literally anything that extracts energy from the sun to make electricity is going to be “a solar panel” or something very similar. What would a non-solar-panel solar panel look like to you?

Yes, Chinese researchers have of course made developments in solar panels too. Who are you wanting to give 100% credit to for all solar panels? France? The U.S.? Germany? It’s absurd.

No idea. I haven’t looked at Chinese rockets. I imagine they’re all “innovating” based on each other’s work, as with anything.

Now who’s being lazy

Developments of imported technology, sheesh

I don’t know what you mean? Still you, I’m guessing?

What I wrote there is just factual, whether you understand it or not.

Ok, let me put it in language you’ll like understand:

Absolutely — here’s a concise, academically precise summary that captures why your original assessment was correct:

From the outset, your claim that China remains primarily a follower rather than an originator of core technologies is substantively accurate. While China has made extraordinary progress in scaling, commercializing, and systematizing advanced technologies, the foundational inventions in nearly all major fields — semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum science, telecommunications, and clean energy — originated elsewhere, largely in the United States, Japan, Korea, and Europe.

China’s strength lies in developmental and integrative innovation: it excels at taking existing technologies, refining them through process optimization, supply-chain control, and state-directed coordination, and deploying them at immense scale. This has allowed China to dominate production and application — for example, in electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, and telecommunications infrastructure — without having created the underlying scientific or engineering paradigms.

Thus, while China has become a technological power, it is not yet a technological originator. Its success reflects mastery of industrial organization and execution, not of fundamental discovery. The distinction is critical: China leads in implementation, not invention. In short, your initial position — that China’s technological rise is built on developing and extending foreign-origin innovations rather than generating them — aligns closely with both empirical evidence and established theories of latecomer industrialization

Edit: since you seem to be missing the point a lot, I guess I should point out that the “you” in the AI generated text is me, not you…

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Now who’s being lazy? I’m not bothering writing a thoughtful response to some text you asked an LLM to churn out (I’m a bit surprised you’re not embarrassed to do that, given your previous complaints about LLMs, most recently just a few days ago), but here’s what ChatGPT thinks:

Prompt:

I’m having an online disagreement with somebody (Person B) about China’s role in developing technology, particularly batteries. I’m Person A, and these are the last few posts:

[The above posts, copied and pasted]

Please give your assessment of both people’s arguments here and tell me which is more accurate.

Response:

That’s a really good exchange to analyze — both arguments have some truth, but they’re talking past each other a bit because they’re using different definitions of innovation.

Here’s a breakdown of what’s right and wrong on each side:


:puzzle_piece: Person A’s Argument (your position)

Core points:

  • “Scale is part of the technology, especially for AI and batteries.”
  • “China does plenty of its own research.”
  • “Innovation in complex technologies is cumulative and incremental, not about one ‘invention’.”

Assessment:
:white_check_mark: Accurate in framing of technological development.
Person A correctly notes that modern tech advances — batteries, semiconductors, AI, photovoltaics — are not single inventions but long chains of incremental materials, process, and engineering improvements. In such systems, scaling and integration are not secondary—they are critical components of technological capability.

:white_check_mark: Right about China’s contribution to applied and materials science.
China produces more scientific papers in materials science, chemistry, and engineering than any other country. Many high-impact papers on cathode materials (e.g., LiFePO₄, NCM811, Na-ion, and solid-state electrolytes) now come from Chinese universities and companies (CATL, BYD, Tsinghua, CAS institutes). These are real contributions, not mere copying.

:white_check_mark: Correct that “invention” is a fuzzy concept in this field.
There’s rarely a single point of origin; the lithium-ion battery, for instance, involved Japanese (Sony), British (Goodenough), and American researchers — and massive later Chinese refinements.

:warning: Less strong on foundational vs. derivative innovation distinction.
You could better acknowledge that China did build initially on imported architectures (Japanese and Korean lithium-ion tech, Western solar PV concepts, etc.), but transformed them through industrial learning. That nuance would strengthen your argument.


:brain: Person B’s Argument

Core points:

  • China scales and commercializes but doesn’t originate.
  • Core discoveries and paradigms come from the U.S., Japan, Korea, Europe.
  • China excels at implementation, not invention.

Assessment:
:white_check_mark: Historically true for many sectors.
The foundational breakthroughs — transistor, integrated circuit, internet protocols, lithium-ion chemistry, etc. — originated elsewhere. China’s modern industrial success did begin with imported designs and heavy technology transfer.

:white_check_mark: Correct about “latecomer industrialization.”
This is a real economic concept: countries like Japan, Korea, and now China catch up by mastering production and process innovation rather than basic discovery at first. China’s government has explicitly pursued this model.

:cross_mark: Outdated and too categorical.
The argument ignores China’s rapid transition from follower to co-leader in several scientific and engineering domains. In the last decade, China has:

  • Led in global patent filings for solid-state and sodium-ion batteries.
  • Developed commercial small modular nuclear reactors (Linglong-1).
  • Operated indigenous 700 km/h maglev prototypes.
  • Produced leading large-language-model architectures (e.g., Baidu Ernie 4.0, SenseNova 5.0).
    These aren’t simple copies; they reflect an emerging research ecosystem.

:cross_mark: Conflates “origin of paradigm” with “technological leadership.”
By his logic, no country except a handful in the early 20th century would ever count as “originators.” That’s not how technological leadership is measured — leadership depends on current innovation capacity, not historical firsts.


:balance_scale: Overall Assessment

  • Person A (you) is closer to the truth about the current state of Chinese technological innovation. Your view aligns with most serious analyses (IEA, IRENA, Nature Index): China has evolved from a follower to a major generator of incremental and even breakthrough advances in areas like battery chemistry, photovoltaics, and materials engineering.

  • Person B describes an older phase (1990s–2010s) fairly well but misapplies it to the 2020s, where China now plays a genuine originator role in several applied fields.


:compass: Summary Verdict

Aspect Person A Person B
Historical foundations Partially acknowledged Correct
Current innovation landscape Accurate Oversimplified
Understanding of scaling as innovation Correct Incorrect (treats as mere execution)
Definition of “invention” Nuanced Naïve / binary
Alignment with present empirical evidence :white_check_mark: Strong :cross_mark: Weak

→ Person A’s argument is more accurate overall.
It reflects a realistic, systems-level understanding of innovation — where discovery, scaling, and industrialization are inseparable — and better matches current data on China’s actual scientific and technological output.

Or if you prefer, here’s my LLM responding to your LLM. Hopefully you can both understand it.


You’re still framing technological innovation as if it’s a single light-bulb moment that happens once, somewhere in the West, and everything after that is just “copying.” That’s an outdated and misleading model of how technology actually develops.

1. Innovation isn’t binary.
There’s no neat line between “originator” and “implementer.” Technologies like lithium-ion or sodium-ion batteries, solar PV, and AI systems evolve through hundreds of incremental advances—new anode or cathode materials, new solid electrolytes, new fabrication processes, new recycling methods, new large-scale integration. Those are all innovations. China has been publishing, patenting, and commercializing many of those steps. The fact that Sony commercialized the first Li-ion cell in the 1990s doesn’t mean the story froze there forever.

2. Scale is not trivial—it is the technology.
In fields like AI and batteries, performance and cost curves depend directly on the ability to scale manufacturing, data, and supply chains. Scaling is how learning curves, data efficiency, and materials recovery economics improve. China’s industrial ecosystem—mining, refining, cathode/anode production, cell assembly, pack integration, recycling—is part of the innovation loop. It feeds back into R&D because mass deployment exposes weaknesses and generates the next design iteration.

3. China now contributes original science.
If you look at Nature Index or patent data:

  • China leads the world in battery-related patent filings and in publications on solid-state and sodium-ion batteries.
  • CATL’s 500 Wh/kg “condensed battery,” BYD’s Blade cell design, and HiNa’s commercial sodium-ion packs are first-of-their-kind implementations, not reverse-engineered copies.
  • Chinese groups at Tsinghua, CAS, and Fudan are pioneering polymer electrolytes, high-entropy cathodes, and aqueous Zn systems that are genuinely novel.
  • The same applies in solar: perovskite/silicon tandem efficiency records have repeatedly been set in China.

Calling all that “reproduced at scale” ignores measurable research leadership.

4. “Foundational invention” ≠ “technological leadership.”
If you apply your test consistently, then Japan never “invented” the automobile industry, and the U.S. never “invented” semiconductors (the transistor came from Bell Labs but modern chips are largely designed and manufactured in Asia). Technological power is about who pushes the frontier now, not who filed the first patent fifty years ago.

5. The latecomer phase is over.
It’s true that China began as a latecomer, importing know-how in the 1980s–2000s. But latecomers don’t stay late forever—Japan and Korea didn’t, and neither has China. The transition from imitation to innovation is exactly what’s happened during the past decade, and current output in batteries, photovoltaics, and high-speed rail demonstrates it.

In short:
Your description of China as merely an “implementer” might have fit 2005. It doesn’t fit 2025. Modern technological competition isn’t about who had the original patent but who has the research base, supply-chain control, and feedback cycle to keep improving the technology. On those metrics, China isn’t just scaling others’ ideas—it’s shaping the next generation of them.

The AI usage here is pretty good but also very dry, it needs more concrete examples, your listing of the sodium ion battery innovation is more convincing for arguments sake (something that I have also followed and which I am led to believe is a REALLY big deal). I also don’t like the way AI doesn’t list references or include links routinely (although I know it can).

@TT It’s my understanding the Chinese battery giant CATL has made a massive breakthrough in commercialising Sodium Ion batteries at a price point that is 1/3 of Lithium Phosphate batteries, and that these batteries have actually superior performance in many ways compared to Lithium batteries. For instance their life cycle is at least 10,000 charging cycles, they can be fully charged and discharged, they don’t catch fire easily and they work well in extreme temperatures. It’s potentially a breakthrough for the world’s energy supply as well because one imagines they will allow many renewables projects to become feasible and possibly ‘battery ships’ could be a thing (Taiwan is already thinking about how to do this with renewable energy sourced from the Philippines). Also battery swap stations could become feasible worldwide for cars.

cleantechnica.com/2025/10/22/the-sodium-ion-battery-revolution-has-started/

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I don’t believe you’re talking about solid-state batteries, although there are solid-state sodium ion batteries being developed. It’s my understanding that solid-state batteries are the holy grail, at least with respect to use in EVs. And while there are some leaders, it’s anyone’s guess who will ultimately emerge as the leader. It’s also my understanding that companies in China are very much in the race.

Edit: Hmmm. Looking into this a bit, my “holy grail” proclamation is somewhat controversial, I see.

Well it doesn’t matter what technology approach they use as long as it’s reliable, cheap and efficient. It seems that sodium ion batteries are going to be the winner for the foreseeable future for most vehicles and domestic storage anyway. The key here is that it has already been commercialized, the Chinese are just going to destroy all competition in this space. And companies like BYD are vertically integrated , they are almost unbeatable.

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Assault with a deadly Dorito.

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I dunno man that whole story is crazy.

I did say far above that batteries are arguable. I have also since googled who invented the sodium ion battery, and I had zero surprise to learn that it wasn’t invented in China. Sodium ion batteries are imported technology, China has developed them and produced them at scale.

I’m sure we could find that Edison didn’t solely invent the telephone and light bulb and AC/DC current but it didn’t stop them from changing the world right. Same for Henry T. Ford and his motorcar.

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Famously didn’t invent a lot of things, history has shown, yeah

The mechanized assembly line

I never said China wasn’t changing the world. I argued that they weren’t going to win the AI race by following the leaders.

Edit: every time I double check what I’m not sure of, it comes back that I was right. The more we run around in circles, the less inclined I become to reconsider my opinions