Don't believe the KMT about the economy

Btw nominal GDP per capita is projected to be pretty close to Korea’s this year (something like 27k vs 31k) since they’ve had a crap year, and would be pretty close/tie with Spain/Italy since euro has been weak and they have no growth as per usual.

2 Likes

The brain drain
Workers rights and medieval labour laws
Protectionist Dinosaur banking industry that doesn’t want to invest, compete or innovate, meaning startups can’t get funding
Other old school protectionist stuff
Unfavorable laws for foreign companies (meaning most forced to form jv) which restricts fdi
Immigration laws

On an industry level, Taiwan still needs to move up the value chain rather than chasing costdown.

Taiwan got a reprieve with the trade war, but can’t just go back to the 80s

4 Likes

That’s impossible. It can’t be 27K when it was 24K last year.

All very good points. Completely agree on all of them except I think Taiwanese companies are moving up the value chain recently.

1 Like

You sure that applies beyond banking?

Of course it can. It happens all the time.

Japan has already expressed supported Taiwan’s entry into the CPTPP. Once we get an FTA (or move on TIFA talks) with the USA, the CPTPP will be a sure thing, and the dominoes will fall.

More FTAs means more FDI, because then firms can export.

Add to this things going Taiwan’s way:

  1. Euro and Japanese investment in wind farms, to take advantage of the Strait’s being the most windy area of the world.
  2. Taiwan becoming a regional AI R&D center.

I agree the trade war and trade diversion aren’t long-term paneceas.

But we might also get an FTA with the UK.
Japan and Korea are going another round with the comfort women thingy. They might substitute Taiwanese chips.

1 Like

Grow 12.5%? It grew 2.6% in 2019.

KMT…Will do nothing I’d say.

You have examples beyond TSMC?

I guess Gain is assuming NTD will appreciate some unlikely amount.

That’s not how it’s calculated. GDP is an estimation, it being 27k this year and 24k last year doesn’t mean there’s been a 12.5% growth, it means that the estimation of this year is 27k and the estimation of last year was 24k, and growth rate is relative to the estimation of this year. There have been countries whose GDP per capita figure jumped by 20% in a year such as Ireland.

And you need to factor in exchange rate and inflation.

Nice troll.

1 Like

Good effort using a huge exception such as Ireland which has issues with tax reporting and GNP/GDP differential :sunglasses:.

2 Likes

Inflation needs to be negative to help out real GDP-per-capita.

Off the top of my head:

  • Electric Scooters and bicycles
  • Mediatek (going for higher value added processors in 5G)
  • The whole R&D hub thing
2 Likes

Not Ireland again, it is getting mentioned as much as Norway these days :rage:

1 Like

There are thousands of mini champion SMEs. Some are in the top five or ten worldwide in their respective niches. But they bosses are really stingy sons of bitvhes.
It’s a cultural thing allied with lack of local merger and acquisitions. They don’t reach bigger scales , seen many examples in the medical industry .You will get ten companies doing practically the same thing.

December 29, 2017. 29.7 NT to the Dollar.
December 31, 2018. 30.6 NT to the Dollar.

That’s 3.0% currency contraction.

You also have to subtract inflation and population growth.

Yeah, you’re nowhere near 12.5%.

No it doesn’t !

1 Like