Exit Plan(s)

My first knowledge of Taiwan was hearing about The Exploding Whale of Tainan.

Can’t complain.

I think it was sort of fair warning

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Damnit yeah I’m hearing this and I’m also (in this same thread) hearing New Years.

And if the vaccination rate by then isn’t very high, what’s going to happen when cases start popping up again?

We’ve seen this story in so many countries.

There was some survey a few months ago, but those aren’t going to be worth much. I’ve been on this forum since 2008, and I don’t recognize most of the names in that 2002 thread.

I still consider myself new compared to other members of the old guard, but I should have stopped thinking that way at least five or six years ago.

To wit: I wasn’t on forumosa when the below happened - but I was living in Tainan, the city where it blew (and I missed the whole show, only hearing about it via international news a few days later!)

Average age: 60
Sex: male and not often
Nationality: mostly Brits and Yanks

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Based on what we’ve seen, I would not count on this happening.

Guy

I highly doubt the schools will open through the rest of the summer. The CDC said October to get 60% of the population inoculated? One jab by then? They only jab a small number each day. I have my doubts

That’d what they mentioned at today’s conference. Numbers down today and that if we trend in the right direction they won’t need to extend it. But that’s a big if

Well if they can get the numbers down, we can go back to the same as the last year. This time, no special treatment for the pilots. It should go down in the summer anyway. It did in most countries and with mask wearing and some vaccinations, we should be at really low numbers in a month or two.

There was never any sustained community spread with unknown transmission chains last year. There is now.

Given that the virus causes no or mild symptoms in the majority of infected, and TW doesn’t test anywhere near as many people as other countries that have successfully contained outbreaks, there’s no reason to believe that the virus will be eradicated now that it’s in.

Even low numbers will mean that the bubble of last year is a thing of the past until enough people are vaccinated. If you go back to the way things were (packed markets, restaurants, etc. with no social distancing and iffy mask wearing) the virus will pop right back up.

We’ve seen this story in other countries.

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The “summer effect” applies to Western countries in moderate climate zones, not Taiwan.

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I was suspecting the same thing. The main theory it went down in summer in North America is because people were outside and not clustered inside as much. That doesn’t really happen in Taiwan’s heat.

Possible counterpoint: what happened in hot southern US states last summer? Wouldn’t they have a similar flight indoors to air conditioning?

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I wrote yesterday that my daughter has symptoms of a cold even though she’s been at home and away from others for 2 full weeks. The covid virus has been loosed. It will very likely be here for years and years. Managing a virus isn’t the same as eradicating. As soon as things begin opening up the spread will accelerate. I think I had it last year and didn’t go to the hospital. I isolated at home. There are likely hundreds today who have it, are infectious, but won’t go see a doctor.

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Very very unlikely if in Taiwan.

Higher solar radiation levels and higher humidity would both be expected to reduce airbourne transmission, though of course the former mostly applies in the outdoors in daytime.

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They had a few of its organs (heart, penis) not-very-well preserved in tanks of (presumably) formalin or some such chemical in a wee Exploding Whale Museum in Chiaotou.

I used to sometimes run field trips for sophomores/ One girl fainted (!)

They cleaned it up a few years ago and got rid of the interesting bits, leaving just the skeleton.

The Story of Taiwan?

The weather effect was a bit overblown. Look at the number of infections in places like Indonesia and Philippines.

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It didn’t go down in summer in the North America last summer - that’s when the second spike happened in the US (Mexican and Canadian cases were a blip compared to the US, but Mex trended right up from Mar to Aug before declining,.Canada was pretty flat through Summer). Happened across different states with different climates.

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I understand that. Look at India now. It looks like summer doesn’t have much of a positive effect. However, when testing was widespread, there was definitely a summer downturn in numbers. Countries which didn’t test much in the winter, but then upped their game in the summer will obviously find more cases in the summer. I mean more people get sick in the winter months, even in Taiwan. There is still a flu season. Why should this sickness be different?

Sure. The sun isn’t going to save us, since most people naturally avoid it. But it might save you as an individual if you can handle the heat and don’t die of skin cancer .

It also seems to weaken the standard official position discouraging people from being outdoors, as with that Italian Mayor out for a maskless shout at single individuals in deserted parks.