Exit Plan(s)

[SuperS54]

@CTaitung

once you go past the point of no return, like now in Taiwan

We’re not there yet, a large part of the numbers are clusters which are relatively easier to track.

[CTaitung]

@SuperS54

@CTaitung

once you go past the point of no return, like now in Taiwan

We’re not there yet, a large part of the numbers are clusters which are relatively easier to track.

speaking of which…

Kansas - Point of Know Return (Official Video)

[Baobab]

Being able to say, “A bunch of people got infected after having contact with a person who recently went to New Taipei” isn’t meaningful tracking.

“Visited Taipei”, “history of Wanhua activity”, etc. doesn’t tell you who a person was infected by.

[SuperS54]

@Baobab

Being able to say, “A bunch of people got infected after having contact with a person who recently went to New Taipei” isn’t meaningful tracking.

“Visited Taipei”, “history of Wanhua activity”, etc. doesn’t tell you who a person was infected by.

Luckily that’s not how it’s done.

[Shui]

@SuperS54

Luckily that’s not how it’s done.

I hope so, but if you look at the press and the CDC website, then this is how they report it. “Taipei/Greater Taipei activity”.

As I jokingly pointed out a few days ago on another thread: Absolutely no untraceable cases. All 100% due to the “Taiwan cluster”

[Marco]

@felinner

Everyone knows Taiwan is not a country, de jure .

What is dejure? We have laws and a monopoly on the use of force, do we not?

Is there some magical god-like registrar for the countries that is omnipotent and declares truly and objectively which places are countries?

[Marco]

@Noel

@Whatevah

@Noel

I am genuinely sad that Taiwan is where it is right now with Covid. Both for the country as a whole, and for my own selfish reasons.

We are trying to put our exit plan together to get out of Canada right now, potentially for January of 2022. Both my wife and I will be fully vaccinated by then, and hopefully our son as well, once they approve the vaccine for 9 year olds.

Our first choice has always been to return to Taiwan, but for the short term it looks like that is unlikely. I guess we will see what the year brings.

Why is it unlikely? I would say it’s almost a guarantee that the situation will be resolves by January

Because in no other country has Covid resolved itself in under a year once it hits. Especially with Taiwan’s current lack of access to vaccines, combined with often intense population density, it seems very unlikely. I hope I am wrong, but I just don’t see it being resolved in 6 months.

Well. They had to start from zero.

We have started during a time where vaccines are available and there’s a month remaining to the domestic vaccine too.

We literally are starting our journey at the end of the tunnel.

We’re gonna be OK.

[stinsonlover]

@CTaitung

the point of no return, like now in Taiwan

Yes. Containment was at the airport. They will be managing this virus for years. No doubt it’s going to continue to spread.

[Noel]

[quote=“Marco, post:487, topic:207326, full:true”]

@Noel

@Whatevah

@Noel

I am genuinely sad that Taiwan is where it is right now with Covid. Both for the country as a whole, and for my own selfish reasons.

We are trying to put our exit plan together to get out of Canada right now, potentially for January of 2022. Both my wife and I will be fully vaccinated by then, and hopefully our son as well, once they approve the vaccine for 9 year olds.

Our first choice has always been to return to Taiwan, but for the short term it looks like that is unlikely. I guess we will see what the year brings.
[/quote]

Why is it unlikely? I would say it’s almost a guarantee that the situation will be resolves by January

Because in no other country has Covid resolved itself in under a year once it hits. Especially with Taiwan’s current lack of access to vaccines, combined with often intense population density, it seems very unlikely. I hope I am wrong, but I just don’t see it being resolved in 6 months.

Well. They had to start from zero.

We have started during a time where vaccines are available and there’s a month remaining to the domestic vaccine too.

We literally are starting our journey at the end of the tunnel.

We’re gonna be OK.

I agree. Taiwan will weather this storm and pass through it. Just not in six months.

It will take several months (My thought is 2-4 months) to acquire enough vaccines for everyone in Taiwan.

Then there is the potential nightmare of implementation and getting vaccines into arms. In Canada they have made it a complete disaster, whereas in the United States it was done quite effectively. Regardless, this phase takes a minimum of 3 months to have any real effect on overall cases, when you consider the logistics of getting close to 24 million people vaccinated; and that is only the first shot for most of the vaccines. If the second shot is considered, it pushes this phase to around another 3 months. So, based on my thinking, this overall phase will take around 6 months.

After most people are vaccinated, cases go down. The US is a good example of this. However there are still the ongoing issues of Covid: vaccine hesitancy, new variants, etc… These things are likely here to stay and will be an ongoing issue that the entire world will be dealing with for several years.

So even if you don’t take the last point into consideration, based on my above points, it looks like a minimum of 8 months, but closer to a year on the other side, as long as vaccine implementation goes smoothly.

If not … Well we are in our third lockdown, and Manitoba currently has the highest case and mortality rate for Covid in the developed world. It has taken going on 6 months for the first shot of vaccines, and it looks like summer to fall for the second; 9/10 months for vaccine implementation. We have been dealing with this with no end in sight since April 2020. It has been a long time.

Just don’t be like Manitoba. Please.

Taiwan can do this - just don’t screw it up like Canada.

[Marco]

I’m confident on our success @Noel

[radiojams]

Covid isn’t going away anytime soon and it’s going to be a long year or two before enough people are vaccinated for things to be normal. But I’m fine with staying. When there’s reunification with the mainland and the place becomes a carbon copy of HK I will still stay put.

I have loved ones, property and roots here already. And things aren’t exactly that terrible.

[Marco]

@radiojams

When there’s reunification with the mainland and the place becomes a carbon copy of HK I will still stay put.

that’s a big if and it probably wouldn’t ever happen.

[Kingdomparadise]

Canada screwed up earlier by having a botched vaccination rollout. That explains why my uncle died. Now more than 56% of Canadians are vaccinated with one dose, and 5-6% fully vaccinated. And Canada is opening up now.

[CTaitung]

@Kingdomparadise

Canada screwed up earlier by having a botched vaccination rollout. That explains why my uncle died. Now more than 56% of Canadians are vaccinated with one dose, and 5-6% fully vaccinated. And Canada is opening up now.

Sorry to hear about that.
State of Washington, which was kind of the initial point of entry for many Covid-19 cases in early 2020 is planning on opening up in full later in June as vaccination rate gets up near 70%.

[wingedpant]

@Baobab

So how do you explain the countries that have been and are testing at significantly higher rates? Why hasn’t the shortage affected everyone else? To my knowledge, the CECC has never publicly stated that TW can’t test at a higher rate because it lacks PCR items. In fact, I recall the CECC pushing back against calls for mass testing last year on the basis that it would be a waste of TW’s resources and it was better to conserve them for if they were ever needed. Is my memory wrong?

It’s competitive. And deliveries to Taiwan for this sort of thing are always slow.

That said, I’m assuming that this is one reason why testing has been lower.

And I think your memory is correct, and they are indeed testing more than they were before. There’s still not enough prevalence to make mass testing sensible though.

@Baobab

You’re including domestic vaccines that haven’t even started Phase III trials, right?

TW was not nearly as aggressive as other countries in ordering and ordering early when it came to the global vaccines.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I think it’s pretty obvious that politics, not public health, factored into the decision to bet so much on the domestic vaccines.

Taiwan has signed contracts for 5.05 million doses of the Moderna vaccine, 10 million doses of AstraZeneca and 4.76 million doses of unspecified brands through the COVAX program. And an additional 10 million from local vaccines if they pass approval.

I don’t see where you think any politics played in, other than the politics of Taiwan finding it difficult to sign international agreements. We have the money, and the willingness, and they have been trying and asking to buy for a long time.

@Baobab

Sorry, but this just isn’t a valid excuse. BnT is not the only vaccine game in town.

BnT is a public one. It’s very safe to assume China was trying to block every single attempt. But they’re willing to give their wonderful Sinovac (LOL)

@Baobab

There’s plenty of data on the efficacy of the vaccines 2 weeks after a single dose. To question whether it could have made a difference is not based on the science.

That’s not what I’m saying. You’re saying that people being vaccinated would have prevented this current outbreak. I’m saying that that assumption is questionable. Even if all 400,000 doses had been given, there’s no evidence it would have stopped this outbreak.

@Baobab

Again, the thing that stands out to me about TW is that the president refused to get vaxxed with AZ in favor of waiting for a domestic vaccine. What sort of message did that send?

Put it another way:

1. Tsai knows that Taiwan is seriously struggling to sign vaccine deals

2. She knows the delivery of foreign vaccines will be a slow trickle

3. She knows there are domestic efforts underway

At the time she was potentially able to take the AZ vaccine, there was only enough of it to vaccinate < 1% of the Taiwan population. And no certainty about future deliveries incoming.

Let’s say she takes the AZ vaccine, which you think she should have done.

Right now, Taiwan is struggling to get more foreign vaccines. They’re arriving at a snails pace. Eventually the domestic, MIT vaccine, is approved.

Then Tsai has to ask her citizens to take the new domestic vaccine, while she took the fancy foreign one. What sort of message would THAT send?

I’ll tell you the answer. People would be attacking that and saying the foreign vaccines go to the rich and powerful while the plebs get the MIT one.

The result would be that uptake of MIT vaccine would be horrible and always seen as second tier.

At the time I agreed with you, and thought she should have taken AZ as a show of faith. But I didn’t realise exactly how bad the foreign vaccine delivery situation was going to be. With hindsight, I think her decision to wait was correct.

(There’s also a separate issue of eligibility. For example, Boris, Prince William, Kate etc all made a point of waiting until their demographic was called. A bunch of politicians queue jumping can also be portrayed badly.)

[wingedpant]

@radiojams

When there’s reunification with the mainland and the place becomes a carbon copy of HK I will still stay put.

Have you not been watching the news for the last five years lol

[Baobab]

@wingedpant

I don’t see where you think any politics played in, other than the politics of Taiwan finding it difficult to sign international agreements. We have the money, and the willingness, and they have been trying and asking to buy for a long time.

You’re conveniently ignoring the fact that TW successfully signed deals with AZ and Moderna. If TW had signed a deal with Moderna for 15 or 20 million doses instead of 5, we’d be in a much better situation, even if those doses would be arriving in phases. Hope and knowledge that vaccine is coming is a good thing in a pandemic. Uncertainty is not.

@wingedpant

That’s not what I’m saying. You’re saying that people being vaccinated would have prevented this current outbreak.

If pilots/flight crew and quarantine hotel staff had been vaccinated, there’s a very good chance that this outbreak would not have occurred.

Instead, we had unvaxxed pilots and flight crew under a stupidly short quarantine (3 days) and then some of them were flouting the self health monitoring rules during the known incubation time for the virus. And we had people working at quarantine hotels going home and out in public every day.

@wingedpant

Then Tsai has to ask her citizens to take the new domestic vaccine, while she took the fancy foreign one. What sort of message would THAT send?

I’ll tell you the answer. People would be attacking that and saying the foreign vaccines go to the rich and powerful while the plebs get the MIT one.

You’re going with a post hoc justification that ignores the narrative that existed IRL, which was “See, even the president doesn’t want to get AZ! Let’s wait for Moderna!”

[radiojams]

I have, Taiwan is one crappy pandemic response and following economic recession away from KMT being voted into power again. Most people I meet here seem more worried about their pensions and apartment value than cross-straight relations.

Ironically I felt Taiwan had a chance of eternal sovereignty when my knowledge was entirely limited to western news. I thought most Taiwanese were green flag waving 獨立 supporters. In my opinion any hope of long term independence and international recognition was lost when CKS did the rather suicidal move of pulling the ROC out of the UN. Taiwan needed nation building and friends in the 1970’s, not in the 2020’s when China is consistently catching up to the strongest super power in the world.

[Whatevah]

I suggest you sometimes talk to other people besides your KMT loving in-laws or whomever it is poisoning your mind. The CCP hate here is absolutely monumental.

[Poundsand]

@radiojams

CKS did the rather suicidal move of pulling the ROC out of the UN

I mean, I guess, in some sort of convoluted literal reading of history; yeah, Taiwan said they wouldn’t play anymore - after they were kicked out.