Yikes. Shades of 1929.
all kinds of problems with BBBY, as even last month or so, its share prices have been on a roller-coaster ride of short-covering and then Cohn as one large holder dumping his shares.
As CFO, must’ve not been fun dealing with all this, if indeed the jump was self-initiated and he was not suicided.
1 Like
I’m liking Luckin coffee
Aren’t those the guys whose accounting is even worse than their coffee?
At least they got half of the Starbucks equation right.
Yes that is those guys……
Positives: they’ve paid all the fines. May get relisted. Did well during Covid. Expanding well.
Negatives: their country’s location.
Ooof.
That’s what my newsletter says as well. Energy into the 2030s.
Everything I’ve read lately says just to hold cash (or very short bonds) til the market crashes harder. And that this bear market is likely to last quite a while.
Personally I’m moving my sidelined money into savings, will wait for things to shake out before buying stocks. And will wait for the fed to finish raising rates to maybe buy some bonds while waiting for the market
1 Like
Are you investing from a TW broker or oversea broker?
No one should invest from a TW broker unless investing only in TW securities.
If you are a US citizen, you have a lot of good brokerage options available.
If not Interactive Brokers is probably your best option.
3 Likes
I’m hearing 6-12 months down cycle.
We were doing that since Q1. Now is DCA time. Load the spring and wait.
1 Like
My worry is that the US and the rest of the world will have a year or so of recession (and I’m hearing 10%-25% further down in that case), and then something worse happens with China’s economy that pulls everyone down further or longer. It’s certainly possible to have multiple years of a bear market. The S&P was flat for 10 whole years earlier in the 2000s.
I’m not even gonna DCA until we go down a few more percent at least
Waiting to start DCAing kind of defeats the purpose. The (second) best time to start is now.
2 Likes
Professional managers of billions of dollars are selling right now, hence the drop in the s&p. I don’t think I know better than them. I’m not going to sell, but I don’t think it’s time to buy. A lot of analysts are saying cash is king atm, even with inflation.
Currently I’m looking into floating rate bond funds. Will post what I uncover. I don’t understand bonds all that well, but I do know that bond ETFs/funds lose significant value as rates increase, pretty much negating the benefit of the yield. Now, you could just buy individual bonds and hold to maturity, or put money into bond ETFs after this rate rising has passed, but these floating rate ones seem good because their NAV doesn’t go down as rates go up, they just track the current short-term interest rate, effectively meaning a duration of 0.
1 Like
Professional managers consistently underperform the S&P.
2 Likes
True. As do individual investors.
And yeah you can’t really time the market in the short term, but you also don’t have to be oblivious to market trends. If I had followed my gut I’d have sold a lot in Dec/Jan before things went to shit. Writing was on the wall.
Of course I’ve also followed my gut into mistakes, and not followed it and been lucky I didn’t. But that was mostly short-term assumptions. We’re looking at wider economic trends here. So I’m not trying to time the bottom but I think we’ll have plenty of time to wait and see the general trend without missing out on potential gains by continuing to invest.
Regarding a place to put cash, I’ve narrowed in on TFLO and FLRN. Good yield (about 3%) with basically no downside during rising rates. Beats a high yield savings account by about 50%
1 Like
That’s why most people are better to invest in a balanced fund like SPY or VTI and never stop contributing whether a crash or bullishness.
1 Like
Pretty bleak out there overall, week after week, further down, further down.
I still put some in each month, though. Even if it goes down it does not evaporate, unless companies go bankrupt, of course. What goes down must come up again. And not everything goes down all the time, like oil and energy, EQT up 130% over the last year or so for me for example. Tesla up 30%. I just wait and pick the apples when they are ripe. But of course most in cash right now.
1 Like