cctang,
I beg to differ, I think it is the Taiwanese identity politics that is driving TI. If it wasn’t for identity politics than these constituents would show the same support for the re-establishment of ROC as a normal State in the international community as they would for TI.
WSR and BSR have been marrying and working together under the same government for 50 years. Yet there still exist an independence movement on Taiwan.
[quote=“ac_dropout”]cctang,
I beg to differ, I think it is the Taiwanese identity politics that is driving TI. If it wasn’t for identity politics than these constituents would show the same support for re-establishment of ROC as a normal State in the international community as they would for TI.
WSR and BSR have been marrying and working together under the same government for 50 years. Yet there still exist a independence movements on Taiwan.[/quote]
Most normal people would reach the opposite conclusion based on that information. Yes, the Benshengren vs. Waishengren issue is silly because the vast majority of Taiwanese are of “mixed” blood. It is a non-issue for the majority of people in Taiwan. It is only people like you who continue to bring this issue up. Real Taiwanese people actually living in Taiwan - as opposed to voluntary exiles living in America for over 2 decades - don’t care very much.
So, why does an independence movement still exist in Taiwan, despite 50 years of intermarriage? Perhaps it’s nothing to do with petty ethnic squabbles at all. Perhaps it is political? Perhaps it is an honest disagreement with the PRC over the direction of the Chinese people? Perhaps many Taiwanese prefer a rule of basic human rights and a bit of democracy, however imperfect that might be, to rule by a brutal fascist dictatorship? Most Taiwanese people I talk to would like to reunify with China, at some point - I’ll concede that - but certainly not now, when the system in Taiwan is so much better than the system in China. As soon as China adopts human rights and economic freedom, then perhaps Taiwan might have a good reason to join with China. But not now.
By the way, let the Yuan re-evaluate to it’s real level, and you’ll see the growth going down the drain. At that point, imports will start to flood the Chinese market, as people will have more power to buy better stuff, and exports will start to stop because they will lack competitiveness.
Any person would find that the politics of the CCP and the KMT are the main cause of the independence movement. Had KMT made a good job, they would probably still rule all China. What reasons gave the Chinese the need to expel the KMT that cannot be used this side of the strait?
quentin said: So, why does an independence movement still exist in Taiwan, despite 50 years of intermarriage? Perhaps it’s nothing to do with petty ethnic squabbles at all. Perhaps it is political? Perhaps it is an honest disagreement with the PRC over the direction of the Chinese people? Perhaps many Taiwanese prefer a rule of basic human rights and a bit of democracy, however imperfect that might be, to rule by a brutal fascist dictatorship? Most Taiwanese people I talk to would like to reunify with China, at some point - I’ll concede that - but certainly not now, when the system in Taiwan is so much better than the system in China.
v says: exactly. intermarriage can’t solve everything 
I think there’s an interesting disconnect here. 5 years ago, many on the mainland would’ve agreed without much debate that the system “in Taiwan is so much better than the system in China”. Quite frankly, that’s no longer the case. This is why so many jokingly call Chen Shui-bian a secret Communist Party member; only explanation for his willingness to discredit democracy. Many debating democracy on mainland forums end with the argument “yes, but look at Taiwan.”
But that’s neither here nor there. ac, I agree with you that there’s an ethnic issue here… I don’t know how Quentin can deny the existence of a divide when even Wang Jinping questions whether a WSR can win a presidential election in Taiwan. But I think this is a “secondary” effect… just like the after-effects of 228, just like party assets, just like so many other issues… it’s just another convenient tool leveraged for political gain.
In fact, my personal sense is that the current DPP administration is motivated by its hatred for mainland China first and foremost, and the KMT/WSR as a whole are only being attacked because of their Chinese roots. But I understand your argument is probably exactly counter to that: mainland China is being used as a tool in order to enable political attacks against the KMT/WSR.
I think both are probably equally true, and depends on what faction of the DPP you’re talking about. I think it’s pretty clear that CSB is a fervent follower of the first group: if the KMT willingly embraced a “Taiwanese identity” as CSB has defined it, I personally believe the deadlock in government would end overnight. On the other hand… the rumors are that Hsieh belongs to the second group, and may engage with mainland China if it gives the DPP an advantage versus the KMT.
mr_boogie, I don’t think many find much interest in your prognostications on the Chinese economy. You’ve proven yourself to be absolutely devoid of business sense or knowledge, and I have a hard time believing your net worth is greater than 6 digits… even in NT.
It is not an non-issue in all of Taiwan. Perhaps in urban areas like Taipei where WSR and BSR mix readily on all level of life it is less of an issue.
But in rural Taiwan or Southern Taiwan where BSR live in more self segregated communities it is a huge issue.
All “mixie” like myself on Taiwan have encountered situation where we have to demostrate how Taiwanese we are. And the political rhetoric on Taiwan doesn’t help matters much every 4 years. Trying to make people feel ashame that they are of WSR descent doesn’t really help much and in fact confuses people that work with WSR on a daily basis in cities like Taipei.
In all my travels throughout the Chinese communities in HK and the mainland, I think Taiwan is the worst if you don’t meet the stereotypical norms for your group.
From my experience with nativist supporters on Taiwan, I don’t think anyone not of Hoklo extraction will every be accepted within the next 3 generations of dilution with Hoklo.
Hsieh and CSB have their own history which created the dynamic of their respective platform which is independent of identity politics. Hsieh is just using the typical not-him strategy to distinguish himself from CSB platform. Since CSB has the never-engage PRC platform. Hsieh has taken the I’ll-talk-about-maybe-engaging the PRC.
Well, if one judges Taiwan by what one sees in the evening news; no wonder. It is kind of a comedy hour that bears no resemblance to the country I lived in. It also shows a disconnect in the understanding of what a good democracy is. Despite the ills and apparent chaos, Taiwan is making decent progress. 5yrs ago to have charges brought against anyone in the first family was almost unthinkable. 15yrs ago you would have been in jail. How many ‘Princelings’ are totally clean? How about even in totally ‘clean’ HKG? Does the ICAC ever look into areas
Where do you get these strange ideas? Your background may influence/explain your habits & behavior, but not necessarily your politics. 
It’s like having big ears; it’s just a part of you are. It was in Taipei that I first ran into politicisation of it. For many years everyone in the South was deep blue - that was the only way you could get things out ofthe grange or hold a local political postion.
cctang, my annual income is 5 digits, in €, plus all expenses paid - happy now?
The sense of business I have is explained by this simple reason - if the yuan evaluates to it’s real value (which should be more or less 30-50% more than what it is now), that will be the increase of the Chinese exports. Even the NTD is kept down for the sake of the exports. The ECB wastes huge amounts of money to relieve the upward pressure on the €, so that it won’t affect Eurozone growth. The USD is affected by everyone else’s politics.
I speak everyday with people in the IT industry and they tell me that if the government lets the yuan evaluate as much as the americans want, it will be very bad for them. China has no quality competitiveness, so they can only compete on price.
From the International Herald Tribune - http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/20/news/trade.php
From the International Herald Tribune - iht.com/articles/2007/04/23/news/paulson.php
That’s a fair point, Elegua. I can’t deny Taiwan’s impressive progress on that front. I’m envious of Taiwan’s independent legal system, and wish the mainland had the same. But at the same time… is that really the primary metric for determining “progress”? That’s a pretty broad term, and we have to take a holistic view of society as a whole when determining that answer.
I don’t pretend that there’s a single objective equation that we can use to calculate the “status” of Taiwan. But I don’t think I’m wrong in saying that, subjectively, many Chinese (and I believe many Taiwanese) believe Taiwan as an entity has declined over the past 5 years. I certainly feel that way in the metrics that I subjectively am more likely to care about: economic achievement, social stability, likelihood of future prosperity. I don’t think I’m the only one that feels Taiwan is burning up its capital reserves, throwing away the hard won economic and social achievements of the last two decades in one meaningless political campaign after another.
Only history will determine the validity of my point of view. Let’s check back in 20 years and see where Taiwan stands with respect to mainland China, the rest of east Asia, and the world at large.
[quote=“mr_boogie”]cctang, my annual income is 5 digits, in €, plus all expenses paid - happy now?[/quote]Well, first of all, 5 digits in Euros runs a pretty broad range from pathetic to mildly decent. Second, I don’t really care what your annual income is; your business acumen speaks for itself.
Let me put it this way. What specific product would you be successfully importing into China if the yuan dropped 30-50% from what it is now? What manufactured product is 30%-50% of Chinese costs, net of imported material? The answer, of course, is next to nothing. An appreciated yuan just means Chinese firms pay less for the raw resources that are later turned into finished products… not to mention lower costs for imported energy.
Chinese margins on exports are very small, probably in the single digit or low double digit range. A decrease in yuan value by 30%-50% probably translates into an increased export cost of 5%-10%. It certainly will be a negative effect on Chinese employment, but China’s exporters are more than able to compete on those terms. Italian shoe-makers and American furniture-makers (and whatever it is that the Portugese make) won’t be able to compete any better with that adjustment.
The yuan needs to be kept somewhat stable for one reason alone: stability in the capital markets. You can destroy healthy companies by changing the rules under which they operate too quickly. The markets are essentially like any other ecosystem; it can effectively adapt to change in environment, but if subjected to too much shock, it can fail.
The RMB has already appreciated 10% since last summer; what effect has this had on the competitiveness of Chinese imports and exports as a whole? Would you like to discuss this?
Not that I want to argue with “people in the IT industry”… but, okay. I wonder just exactly who it will be bad for… and what it exactly means for China to have no “quality competitiveness”. The PC makers of the world are uniformly located in the mainland today; who knew Dell and Apple had no interest in quality, only price.
I believe this little tangent started with your claim that “growth will go down the drain” with appreciation in the RMB. The loss of 5.5 million jobs might sounds like a big number to you, but it’s a minor statistical factor in a country with 1.3 billion people. 5.5 million people, conservatively, represents an uptick in unemployment of 1%.
Keep in mind, as well, as well, that domestic disposable income and retail consumption in China is now growing in the 13%-15% range. That will more than obscure the minor effect represented by this. Frankly, China could really benefit from a slow-down in export sales and economic expansion. (Same theory: too much change too fast is dangerous to the system as a whole.)
I approve of the fact you’re looking up primary sources, though. This is a big step up for you. Now, go find us some articles from top industry newspapers that actually support your thesis that the Chinese economy will collapse with re-evaluation of the Yuan.
That’s a fair point, Elegua. I can’t deny Taiwan’s impressive progress on that front. I’m envious of Taiwan’s independent legal system, and wish the mainland had the same. But at the same time… is that really the primary metric for determining “progress”? That’s a pretty broad term, and we have to take a holistic view of society as a whole when determining that answer.
I don’t pretend that there’s a single objective equation that we can use to calculate the “status” of Taiwan. But I don’t think I’m wrong in saying that, subjectively, many Chinese (and I believe many Taiwanese) believe Taiwan as an entity has declined over the past 5 years. I certainly feel that way in the metrics that I subjectively am more likely to care about: economic achievement, social stability, likelihood of future prosperity. I don’t think I’m the only one that feels Taiwan is burning up its capital reserves, throwing away the hard won economic and social achievements of the last two decades in one meaningless political campaign after another.
Only history will determine the validity of my point of view. Let’s check back in 20 years and see where Taiwan stands with respect to mainland China, the rest of east Asia, and the world at large.[/quote]
In my mind yes, and no. I agree that economics is the driver. But I believe that part is perception and part is reality. I remember quite clearly sense of disbelief and loss of confidence the first time in about 20+ yrs Taiwan had a serious downturn in the economic cycle (2001). Taiwan has had a pretty robust economy since the late 80’s, almost without a break. No one had ever experienced something that is quite common for mature economies. The economy is now mature and post-industrial. With a mature economy, come many mature economy issues and social adjustments as the nature of the economy changes. Just look at any Western economy beginning in the 70s. The economy is still growing decently, it’s just not going to grow the way it did in the early 90’s. The time when the political squabbling hurts Taiwan is when it blocks needed reform. Taiwan needs to reform the service and financial sectors, but possibly not in the way people think - 3 links won’t cure much unless Taiwan is better able to harmonize with global standards and liberalize markets. This will cause pain as pockets of ‘preference’ are removed. Some members of the government that I worked with understood this. Some were living in the past when Taiwan could do what it liked because it was growing fast and one of the few liberalized economies (ironically many of these were the older, deep blue, civil servants). Taiwan needs to stop looking at China, which is in a different economic developmental stage, and fix its internal ills. Then it can worry about how it integrates economically with China.
As for China, let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope that this equity bubble in Shanghai pops gently - else I worry over a backlash once Johnny part-time investor gets burned.
“I can’t. 20% growth a year makes a huge mountain of gold.”
AHH! the richer get richer, the poor get poorer argument.
Right up there with the Nuremburg defence.
“If the aborigines of Taiwan understand what come up (sic) of the doctrine, the
Hoklo group will now be classified as immigrants in Taiwan.”
What do you mean “if”.
Wow! tang. I was right along with you till you got to me.
“PS. ccpcannonfodder, sure I could get off my horse…
but that doesn’t change whether it’s high or not.
Keep praising your little Ah-Q pony, and your kids
will be standing on the street looking up as I cruise by.”
Don’t know what an Ah-Q pony is, but my kids will be
flinging pidgeon shit with their sling shots
at your Emperor wears no clothes persona.
tang
" Many debating democracy on mainland forums
end with the argument ‘yes, but look at Taiwan.’"
Very true, better to get run over by a tank than
get hit by a flying chair!
tang
" Many debating democracy on mainland forums
end with the argument ‘yes, but look at Taiwan.’"
Very true, better to get run over by a tank than
get hit by a flying chair!
The double dip
To the young people -
don’t drink beer, you’ll look stupid to your lessers.
Are you familiar with J.K.Galbriath and the tulip bulbs?
Every bubble bursts.
Elegua,
I understand your point about transitional economies. However, there are those of us in the business community who experienced and weathered through the economic difficulties in the US during the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s, and are more than happy to offer counsel to the administration.
Everyone can see that this administration treasures their politics over all else.
When the Taiwanese business community and the AIT both agree that the barriers in place hinder business, it shouldn’t be taken as a coincidence.
I don’t agree that anyone interested in the Taiwanese economy can satisfy themselves with the growth rate as being “decent”, and draw equivalents to the “mature, post industrial” economies of the West. The Taiwanese economy and Western economies remain very different.
The Taiwanese economy remains heavily export driven; the main components of Taiwanese exports happen to be in IT products that are growing at double-digit rates world-wide. This must be differentiated from Western economies that are widely diversified and more driven by internal consumption, services, and productivity increases.
Let me put it this way: it’s not a secret that IT technologies have a very short half-life. 10 years ago the LCD industry didn’t exist, and yet today is a huge part of the Asian export market. Whether it’s motherboards or flash memory, these products quickly evolve from cutting-edge to commodity to obsolete scrap. I for one believe Taiwan is currently in the “commodity” era, still prospering thanks to cutting-edge technology companies that begin to dominate these products 5-15 years ago.
When the LCD industry retires to be replaced by whatever the next major export technology is (energy? nano? agrotech?)… what will happen in the US economy versus the Taiwanese economy? In my opinion, the “mature” US/European economies will still thrive: domestic consumers, domestic service providers will enjoy the productivity advantages without feeling threatened. What will happen to the Taiwanese economy? Are Taiwanese companies dominating in today’s cutting-edge markets? Where are the small Taiwanese startups that will be grossing $10B in sales 15 years from now?
So, to summarize… clearly, no one in Taiwan is in even remote danger of starving today. I’d venture to say that 99% of the people in mainland China would trade their current jobs for even an entry-level position in Taiwan; the pay and personal opportunities are clearly better. But speaking at an “economy” level, I think the trends that I’m describing are real. We’re less than a decade away from seeing urban Shanghai/Zhejiang/Guangzhou surpass Taiwan in per-capita GDP; I see that as being almost inevitable.
I’ll assume that you make this statement out of genuine concern for China and the Chinese. 
I too am concerned, in all honesty. I know a lot of Chinese who are convinced Beijing won’t let the market collapse before the 2008 Olympics (sorta like the theories of some about TI). I think that’s a very dangerous sentiment, and I don’t know what Beijing can do about it: let the market work (in which case it can form a dangerous bubble), or directly interfere in the market to cool it down… in which case liberalization/reform is set back a decade.
Here’s something I’m not very informed about, but been pondering… only approximately 1/3rd of the shares in a publicly traded Chinese company are actually in private hands and available for trade. 2/3rd of the ownership remains in the hands of the government; this made sense at a time when there wasn’t enough capital to buy share and take these huge state-owned enterprises public. Well, isn’t this the perfect time for Beijing to release more of those shares for public trading!?
But that said, even a stock market collapse won’t change the overall trends of the Chinese economy. Keep in mind it’s only a small % of the Chinese population are really engaged in these stock transactions. Also, keep in mind that very very few are trading speculatively on margin… in the worst case, savings are wiped out… but people will retain their jobs and their homes. Very few will face bankruptcy because of a collapse.