Ian Easton on Taiwan: ... in the 2020s, Xi Jinping (習近平) is probably going to invade Taiwan if nothing major changes

The Taipei Times laments the slip in preparedness in both the US and Taiwan for an invasion in the next 10 years, and calls for support of Ted “I’m not sexist, I have daughters” Yoho’s Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act introduced last week.

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I wonder if the bill will pass Congress. I believe republicans will vote for it. Guys like Ted Cruz can be counted on and the Republican Party with Trump has made China a major re-election issue.

But will the Democrats vote in favor of the bill. So far, the support for Taiwan has been to my surprise to be bi partisan. But this bill will really take the heat up far more than the US has ever seen with China. The Democrats with Biden seems to indicate they want to go the opposite direction with Trump, they also have to as he will be going all in against China. Supporting this might hurt their chances with Biden. Will they side with what is right over party politics?

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The most recent American tech cable connects Taiwan and not China and Hk so the direction of both the economy and USD is the island in Asia. With America and global alliance Taiwan will benefit in the long term.

We all know the winner if war happens.

I just can’t imagine a world where China invades Taiwan and US does nothing. TSMC alone is far too important to abandon. It became a monopoly in advanced processors this year and it looks like that its choke-hold in semi industry will only get stronger as we move forward (my guess is its control will be absolute in 4 to 5 years). If China invades Taiwan US either surrenders its superpower status or fights China. It is not an exaggeration to say that if TSMC stops supplying, all semiconductor production around the world will grind to a halt leading to complete collapse of all dependent industries.

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Yup, and lose all credibility in the asian pacific. Korea and Japan won’t listen to a thing the US says anymore seeing Taiwan get invaded. This would probably signal the beginning of end of the US as a super power imo. It’s wouldn’t be the end, but it would be the start.

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See the terms of the deal in there about nuking Taiwan …

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anything could happen XI could come down with coronavirus, who knows.

China is still in need of a load of amphibious landing craft b4 they can invade.

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You do realize the USA is trying to move semiconductor production back home? There’s a $25 billion bipartisan bill aimed at doing that right now.

Wow Biden sucks. What kind of crack was the DNC smoking prematurely anointing him.

Weak China is very dangerous China.

A critical moment will be after Three Gorges collapse. There will be a purge to appease the masses. And then a power struggle. Depending on the mess, they will need an easy win. With all the traitors and double agents and plain brain washed idjits here, they may assume Taiwan is an easy morsel as painted. Hence, it all depends on how many current generals and mid level commanders they have bought off. And how well armed are the pro China mobster in Taiwan.

Taiwan would be fighting a two front war, formally enemies from outside but also from within. That would be our weakness: not knowing who to trust.

That’s a drop in the bucket. If they commit to 25 Billion a year that would start to make a dent. Even then I doubt Intel can get back process parity. No one falls behind and catches up again, not in this industry. Once they fall behind revenue nosedives and that makes it even harder to catch up.

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Do you mean this bill?

Couple months ago, I was trying to be helpful to a US CEO of a device company who was explaining his company’s possible need for chips should they get FDA EUA approval for their Covid test. I suggested I could ask around about sourcing the chips here. He replied that they preferred to source in the US as much as possible. Later that week, TSMC announced their second US site (in Arizona).

https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsArchivesAction.do?action=detail&newsid=THGOANPGTH&language=E

So, there is some sensitivity even from SME sized businesses to try to source critical parts in the US

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Power war has already started in the CCP according to the red second generation residing in the USA. America and Trump are containing the emperor economically now. When the economy collapses 90 million apparatchiks will be fleeing with their loot.

Ian Easton writes like things have not been shifting. But things have been shifting, and US opposition to the PRC has not been higher in many of our lifetimes, certainly since the Nixon administration.

For more nuanced analysis, I’ve been listening to guys like Ian Bremmer who have been speaking bluntly about a sharp-edged bifurcation of the world, especially through tech, that’s going to make sure EVERYONE needs to commit to one side: US or PRC. In this bifurcated world, Taiwan will remain linked up with Japan, South Korea, the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, etc. Who right now will sign up for the PRC side?

Guy

Ian Easton works for a Washington D.C. think tank and is just trying to get attention to keep the funds flowing which wouldn’t be as well without attention getting stories.

Taipei Times friends of his and his think buds publish his editorials or whatever.

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You don’t think some countries will try to play both fields if possible as they’ve always have? It will be a painful process for most countries to side against the PRC economically, not everyone is an economic powerhouse like the US that can throw their weight against China.

I think that is the issue Ian Easton is trying to address. Many in the west act like business as usual will be possible. The current climate is turning quickly into if you’re not with me you’re against me. Look how much Boris got pushed by the US, he had no choice if he wants to keep a good relationship with this administration as they go through Brexit.

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When I was in college I learned about China putting a critic of the safety of some dam they were building. Is 3 Gorges it?

Bremmer’s point is that in the tech field, 5G, etc, it won’t be possible for countries to “play both sides.” We’ll have two noncompatible systems going forward, presuming that Huawei can actually survive globally—bad for globalization, bad for efficiency, but a marker of our new world.

Guy

I don’t know enough about the hardware to say if they will indeed be non compatible and to what extent.