Ian Easton on Taiwan: ... in the 2020s, Xi Jinping (習近平) is probably going to invade Taiwan if nothing major changes

Wei Jingsheng is cooperating with the American government now.

My goodness what can I say it’s profitable business for those companies.

Why does Taiwan need an aircraft carrier? To project force where?

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I don’t know, but the only reason Taiwan is being held back militarily (apart from the lack of willingness to fight the PRC) is because Taiwan isn’t encouraged to develop an independent military industry. I mean Taiwan is a leader in semiconductor industry, where if TSMC shuts down the world would be hurting badly, they also have a robust plastics, petrochemical, textile, precision manufacturing industries, yet they can’t develop their own submarine, destroyer, etc. fleet? Why do we have to keep buying outdated weapons from the US at inflated price? Is it protection money? Many Taiwanese feels this way. And why can’t Taiwan develop their own weapons? Is it because the US discourages it? Basically we’ll sell you advanced weapons at inflated prices if you don’t develop your own.

Taiwan tried to develop their own atomic weapons, and the US discouraged Taiwan from doing that. So we have research reactors sitting around doing nothing. Taiwan talked about developing their own sub fleet, and I don’t know what came of it, but it was a part of that arms deal that the KMT was strongly opposed to back in 2004. And what’s stopping Taiwan from being a blue water navy?? I mean Taiwan has unfettered access to the Pacific Ocean. Perhaps Taiwan does need to project some force, keep China from coming around the East side to try to box Taiwan in. Force them to fight in the shallow strait and see how many submarines can even navigate the waterways.

Truth is America does not want Taiwan to be self sufficient and be able to hold their own against the PRC because America only cares about themselves, and could care less if Taiwan gets glassed. We are neutered the same way Japan is.

EMPs, that is what we need. Send them CCP wumaos back to the Stone Age.

They have threatened our internet access. We need something to protect that line at all costs.

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To retake west Taiwan.

Subs, yes, air carrier, not really, distance is too short. And a carrier is too big of a target.

Maybe some air to air refueling planes, plus hideout bases.

But this won’t be a confrontational, conventional war. The cuts will come from within. And no planes can take off is no one gives the order

The US and China won’t get into a conventional war with each other, nobody goes up against nuclear nations. Nukes ironically have kept peace for years between USA and Russia, India and Pakistan, and even prevented a takeover of North Korea for decades. Not worth the risk. The world economy would also tank. Economic war is the way they are going, all else is sabre rattling.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/china-set-its-sights-on-taiwan-after-hong-kong-crackdown

This is the exact reason. My home country can’t even fart without the US giving permission…

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Wait, what? ain’t nobody touching my internet! You don’t want to have a bunch of angry nerds without internet, that is how you get bombed the f@#$ out!

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Partly this, and partly that Taiwan is a country of 22 million, and most smaller countries don’t develop a full range of their own military equipment. They’ll concentrate on one or two items and buy the rest.
Plus look at Taiwan’s defence spending. After four years of DPP rule it’s still 2.3%- not exactly “all hands on deck” territory.

How does this compare to the Ma Ying-jeou era? If you have the stats, I’d be curious to know.

Guy

This website says that the Tsai government’s spending is higher than the Ma government, but by about one more billion US 2017 dollars. So they spend about 5ish per cent more. The Ma government spent more than the Chen government. Oddly enough, the Chen government decreased spending on the military as the Lee government spent 13 billion US 2017 dollars.

That was because the KMT-dominated legislature kept blocking Chen’s purchase requests.

Guy

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You’re right. Attention is divided between work and this.

But I got you the stats :slight_smile:

R&D and capital costs. Same reason Intel can’t compete with TSMC. When initial costs are very high it only makes sense to invest if you are going to build large volumes.

Also its pure nonsense that Taiwan is buying the weapons at inflated costs. Are they selling for profit? of course they are, they are private entities. Doesn’t mean its an inflated price.

Maybe to you that isn’t the case but most Taiwanese feels that way. That the US sells outdated weapon systems to Taiwan that can’t even dream about competing against the PRC at inflated prices, not because the weapon is useful, but we are paying protection to the US.

USA needs to sell weapons to invest in future research and development of more advanced weaponry.

Well what can I say. They are wrong. The equipment are neither outdated nor at inflated prices. F16V for example is more advanced than most of USAF’s operational planes.

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