Bonds aren’t worth anything anyway. They’re just an excuse for the issuance of dollars, but they aren’t useful if you aren’t allowed to exchange them for anything which is already the case. They can only be stealth spent. The Chinese already hate the dollar, but just not quite as much as losing their big customer the U.S. If the U.S. therefore just created a trade embargo, it would have the same effect.
However if the Chinese just dumped their U.S. dollars on the open market, then the U.S. would be sunk. I can’t see the U.S. going to war without a currency and with limited oil reserves. Their own public would put a stop to that.
I don’t see why the U.S. should intervene. I don’t understand how inflating a violent situation makes it better.
[quote=“tomthorne”]I think it would be similar to Czechoslovakia '68. A big, very dangerous opponent invades a neighbour it has a spurious claim over. UN does nothing because big power casts veto. USA is tied up in an ill-conceived war elsewhere. USA sensibly decides to do nothing.
Only difference is the much higher difficulty in invading Taiwan compared to Czechoslovakia. Can’t just roll the tanks in.[/quote]
Except that USA doesn’t want to give up on the Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea. Plus China’s nuke deterrent is nowhere near what the old USSR had to offer.
[quote=“BigJohn”][quote=“tomthorne”]I think it would be similar to Czechoslovakia '68. A big, very dangerous opponent invades a neighbour it has a spurious claim over. UN does nothing because big power casts veto. USA is tied up in an ill-conceived war elsewhere. USA sensibly decides to do nothing.
Only difference is the much higher difficulty in invading Taiwan compared to Czechoslovakia. Can’t just roll the tanks in.[/quote]
Except that USA doesn’t want to give up on the Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea. Plus China’s nuke deterrent is nowhere near what the old USSR had to offer.[/quote]
I agree… on the other hand, nobody in the world seems to know exactly how
many nuclear weapons are actually in China’s possesion at the moment. IMHO,
China is very much like Russia when it comes to nuclear weapons on wheels.
Oh well… nuclear weapons are so 20th century anyway… if I were the Chinese,
with all the money and technology, I’d continue with the HAARP weapons program.
[quote=“Tsar_Bomba”][quote=“BigJohn”][quote=“tomthorne”]I think it would be similar to Czechoslovakia '68. A big, very dangerous opponent invades a neighbour it has a spurious claim over. UN does nothing because big power casts veto. USA is tied up in an ill-conceived war elsewhere. USA sensibly decides to do nothing.
Only difference is the much higher difficulty in invading Taiwan compared to Czechoslovakia. Can’t just roll the tanks in.[/quote]
Except that USA doesn’t want to give up on the Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea. Plus China’s nuke deterrent is nowhere near what the old USSR had to offer.[/quote]
I agree… on the other hand, nobody in the world seems to know exactly how
many nuclear weapons are actually in China’s possesion at the moment. IMHO,
China is very much like Russia when it comes to nuclear weapons on wheels.
Oh well… nuclear weapons are so 20th century anyway… if I were the Chinese,
with all the money and technology, I’d continue with the HAARP weapons program.[/quote]
how on earth do the Chinese have the capacity to pursue a HAARP program? where might have they installed the necessary transmitters/receivers?
[quote=“BigJohn”][quote=“tomthorne”]I think it would be similar to Czechoslovakia '68. A big, very dangerous opponent invades a neighbour it has a spurious claim over. UN does nothing because big power casts veto. USA is tied up in an ill-conceived war elsewhere. USA sensibly decides to do nothing.
Only difference is the much higher difficulty in invading Taiwan compared to Czechoslovakia. Can’t just roll the tanks in.[/quote]
Except that USA doesn’t want to give up on the Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea. Plus China’s nuke deterrent is nowhere near what the old USSR had to offer.[/quote]
Fair point, but I’m not sure if the nuclear factor will really come into play. The US responded to Cuba because if missiles had been placed there within striking distance it was a direct threat. The US ignored Czechoslovakia because it wasn’t in their national interest to get involved. There was no particular threat to US national interests. This is why I think the word ‘should’ is misleading in the OP’s question. There are lots of things nations ‘should’ do, but in reality US foreign policy only exists to serve national interests. Maybe, ‘If China invades Taiwan, will the US intervene militarily’ might be more useful.
Now, as you say, if the sea routes in Taiwan are that important to the US then they probably will get involved in the event of a Chinese action. The question is, are they really so important to justify the level of risk the US would be taking in playing a game of brinkmanship with China at this point in time? Ten years ago, maybe. Now? I’m not so sure.
how on earth do the Chinese have the capacity to pursue a HAARP program? where might have they installed the necessary transmitters/receivers?[/quote]
Did you miss the news about secret HAARP experiments in Sichuan two years ago?
The experiment was alleged by some to be he cause of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake
which killed nearly 70,000 people. Interestingly, nobody could agree on who was
responsible, China or the US.(!)
don’t even get me started on how Communist China indirectly caused Israel to go to war…
(edit: apparently not a conspiracy theory… it actually happened in the 1950’s, according to Wikipedia)
are you talking about when the US government deploys regular army and national guard units
inside the US in support of ICE’s mass deporation of the estimated 11 million illegal aliens?
…
back to the original question. IMHO, the US should absolutely stay out if and when the PLA
decides to arrive in Taiwan by force. It is inconsistent with the US national interest to get
involved in what is a de factoo civil war. No US soldier should be ordered to risk death and/
or injury in a war that does not involve the U.S.
are you talking about when the US government deploys regular army and national guard units
inside the US in support of ICE’s mass deporation of the estimated 11 million illegal aliens?
[/quote]
No, I’m talking about when China has sufficiently distanced themselves from our junk bonds and pulls our line of credit. Nothing will happen in Taiwan until after then but China will do whatever they want after the dollar (and US economy) has imploded.
That’s exactly my point too. If it came to crunch time I believe China would have the U.S. right under its thumb. The shear threat of releasing their U.S. dollars onto the open market should be enough to sink the U.S… I’m not even sure military action is necessary in this case. Of course China doesn’t want to hurt its business with the U.S. but if China was to attack Taiwan, then they would have taken that into account already.
That’s exactly my point too. If it came to crunch time I believe China would have the U.S. right under its thumb. The shear threat of releasing their U.S. dollars onto the open market should be enough to sink the U.S… I’m not even sure military action is necessary in this case. Of course China doesn’t want to hurt its business with the U.S. but if China was to attack Taiwan, then they would have taken that into account already.[/quote]
even if China and the US are nap partners, it is still important for China to unload a good chunk of its US debt holdings.
China has placed too many eggs in one basket. If the US dollars goes into the crapper, it’s going to drag China down
for a bumpy ride.
That’s exactly my point too. If it came to crunch time I believe China would have the U.S. right under its thumb. The shear threat of releasing their U.S. dollars onto the open market should be enough to sink the U.S… I’m not even sure military action is necessary in this case. Of course China doesn’t want to hurt its business with the U.S. but if China was to attack Taiwan, then they would have taken that into account already.[/quote]
Any kind of war with the US would create vast political uncertainty in China and probably halt virtually all investment into the country, not to mention imports and exports. The economic effect on China would be at least as bad as on the US, and the resultant effect on jobs would create social instability.
The US won WWII and the cold war. Now we’ve had a war of economic power and influence where China has conquered, all without firing a single shot. The US, once the richest nation on earth has become the biggest debtor in the history of civilization while China in a few decades has become our biggest creditor.
Now that the US is teetering under the weight of its on debt the Chinese are quietly decoupling themselves from our economy. Last June they lowered their US bond holdings by 3%, the greatest amount to date. In just the last few years China has doubled their gold reserves and is encouraging citizens to buy precious metals and pushing banks to offer more precious metals products. In short, they are preparing for a collapse of the dollar and the demise of the US as a global economic superpower.
The day is rapidly approaching when the Chinese will be ready to let the US sink into a financial abyss and enjoy the fruits of their own shrewd economic policies. At this point the Taiwanese government will be smart to make nice with the mainland as the US will be incapable of being an effective ally. Until then, China will have no interest in an armed conflict with Taiwan (and by extension, the US), they’re much too smart for that. Besides, their methods of attaining economic dominance are far more effective than the US style of blowing things up.
Sorry America, China has won the war you didn’t realize you were fighting, have another cheeseburger.
[quote=“Shaktipalooza”]The US won WWII and the cold war. Now we’ve had a war of economic power and influence where China has conquered, all without firing a single shot. The US, once the richest nation on earth has become the biggest debtor in the history of civilization while China in a few decades has become our biggest creditor.
Now that the US is teetering under the weight of its on debt the Chinese are quietly decoupling themselves from our economy. Last June they lowered their US bond holdings by 3%, the greatest amount to date. In just the last few years China has doubled their gold reserves and is encouraging citizens to buy precious metals and pushing banks to offer more precious metals products. In short, they are preparing for a collapse of the dollar and the demise of the US as a global economic superpower.
The day is rapidly approaching when the Chinese will be ready to let the US sink into a financial abyss and enjoy the fruits of their own shrewd economic policies. At this point the Taiwanese government will be smart to make nice with the mainland as the US will be incapable of being an effective ally. Until then, China will have no interest in an armed conflict with Taiwan (and by extension, the US), they’re much too smart for that. Besides, their methods of attaining economic dominance are far more effective than the US style of blowing things up.
Sorry America, China has won the war you didn’t realize you were fighting, have another cheeseburger.[/quote]
That is sooooo exaggerated and China nationalist!! China has way more economic problems than the US. One day they may be the world’s number economy but they’re not there yet: many a slip tween cup and lip.
There’s no economic war going on, just the usual rough global economic rugby game where everyone wants to win but they’re all part of the same league.
To be perfectly honest, this is not really a political issue. It’s diplomatic and military. We don’t have a section on that in forumosa.com for good reason, right Taffy? Reluctantly, I’d put it in International Politics where heads are cooler and responses more sophisticated.
Now, as you say, if the sea routes in Taiwan are that important to the US then they probably will get involved in the event of a Chinese action. The question is, are they really so important to justify the level of risk the US would be taking in playing a game of brinkmanship with China at this point in time? Ten years ago, maybe. Now? I’m not so sure.[/quote]
I think the opposite question is the operative one: can the Chinese afford to bet against what the US can and will do? Historically, the US has never taken its commitments lightly, and has continuously developed new military technology.
