If China invades Taiwan, should the US intervene militarily?

Politics Taiwan Politics
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41

I would say that a number of countries won WWII, but if I had to pick one, it would be Russia.

[quote=“Shaktipalooza”]. . . and the cold war.[/quote] I would say rather that Soviet-style socialism lost the Cold War. And why? Not enough cheeseburgers. Not enough gewgaws and gimcracks. Or to steal from Steve Martin, not enough fur sinks, electric dog polishers, gasoline powered turtlenecks.

[quote=“Shaktipalooza”]Now we’ve had a war of economic power and influence where China has conquered, all without firing a single shot. The US, once the richest nation on earth has become the biggest debtor in the history of civilization while China in a few decades has become our biggest creditor.

Now that the US is teetering under the weight of its on debt the Chinese are quietly decoupling themselves from our economy. Last June they lowered their US bond holdings by 3%, the greatest amount to date. In just the last few years China has doubled their gold reserves and is encouraging citizens to buy precious metals and pushing banks to offer more precious metals products. In short, they are preparing for a collapse of the dollar and the demise of the US as a global economic superpower.

The day is rapidly approaching when the Chinese will be ready to let the US sink into a financial abyss and enjoy the fruits of their own shrewd economic policies. At this point the Taiwanese government will be smart to make nice with the mainland as the US will be incapable of being an effective ally. Until then, China will have no interest in an armed conflict with Taiwan (and by extension, the US), they’re much too smart for that. Besides, their methods of attaining economic dominance are far more effective than the US style of blowing things up.

Sorry America, China has won the war you didn’t realize you were fighting, have another cheeseburger.[/quote]

But since the late 1960s I’ve been hearing and reading the claim that the U.S. was on the way out. And in a way it was true then and still is, for this reason: we never were the big boss–at least not boss enough to control everything, or even to come within miles of it.

And the knowledge that we can’t control everything certainly predates the 1960s:

One more quote from old Ike, this one from 1952:

So what I’m gonna do is, I’m gonna have another cheeseburger.

42

We need enough neutron bombs to wipe out every major Chinese city, then an army big enough to go in and shoot survivors. Like something out of Jack London’s “The Unparalleled Invasion.” (The story uses biological warfare, but I don’t think that would really work.)

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Absolutely! The sooner Communist China falls and the mainland Chinese people establish a true and free Republic like Taiwan the sooner we can all have a better chance at world peace. I’m all for boycotting Communist China and doing all the U.S. can to help the Taiwanese economy and their defense.

cultbustersgalactica.yuku.com/directory

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Oh dear! It’s gone all :loco:

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I think the question is not “will the US intervene” but “can the US avoid intervening?”

Several longtime Taiwan watchers are fond of making this point, but it is one worth thinking about: any Chinese attack on Taiwan has to come through Japanese air and sea space. It will be very difficult for them to avoid.

The US is bound BY TREATY to defend Japanese air and sea space. Hence it will be difficult to avoid triggering a US military response at some point, though the US will probably attempt to make it look as though all other options are exhausted.

If you were a Chinese war planner, how would you finesse this issue?

I’m thinking Pearl Harbor again – since the US is going to come in anyway, may as well hit them before they hit us, Beijing’s planners might well decide. Alternatively they may come up with some awkward invasion plan where they land in Taichung and then paralyze responses through air interdiction.

But my own view is that they will begin with attacks on the port in Danshui to secure their logistics, and other operations in the north, to get the war finished with before the US intervenes. Especially if there is a pro-China government in office, totally uninterested in resistance in the first place…

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[quote=“super_lucky”][quote=“tomthorne”]‘should’ - yes.

But they won’t. Actually, they probably can’t anymore.[/quote]

The Taiwan Relations Act of 1972 stipulates that the U.S. is required to “provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character”, and “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.” .[/quote]

The TRA DOES NOT require the US to sell arms to Taiwan. It merely states that selling arms is the policy of the US. The actual decision on arms sales is left up to the Preznit.

Vorkosigan

47

You know, back before Carter unilaterally abrogated the mutual defense treaty, there was a provision for Taiwan to come to the aid of the U.S. Neither the treaties with Japan or South Korea had such a clause.

48

neither Japan nor South Korea were US-military occupied territories. Taiwan was, and still is in the eyes of some.

49

Why would China invade anyway, when all they need to do to get their way is lob a few missiles into the Taiwan Straights?

50

That didn’t work last time they still elected Lee, Deng-Smiley Guy. Two months of an embargo and this place would fall. They’d be eating their children.

The people in Taipei would be waving white flags at the first brown out or food shortage. “What no cable? Quick! What are the words to The East is Red?”

The southerners–they’re a different story–they could eat rocks and drink rat blood, it’d be a Viet Cong holiday for them.

The northern cities couldn’t sustain themselves for very long-most major cities only have 3 days of food anyway.

Yes, the US and the rest of the world should intervene.

51

Last nighht, a fellow countryman came up with a new reaction to my eveil plan to become Taiwanese: you nee dto keep your passport to evacuate when China attacks. :s

Honestly, we have no embassy here, no way my country can even react fast enough to make a request to US or someone else to evacuate…if there is somerewhere to evacuate or any way of doing it. And bombs/bullets basically have a “for whom it may concern” delivery, no names/nationalities attached. US, if possible, will get its people out, but then, it is the Taiwanese wishful thinking as many of them locals hold both passports precisely for this eventuality. Wonder what would stand: their race -Chinese- or a piece of paper. Yeah, sure.

Looking at wars in the 21st century, I do not think this will be an all out, “shock and awe” kind of deal, even if China would like to “kill a chicken to scare off the dog”. It is not worth it and it is not the modern way of doing things. The communists took over China in the good old days because the structure was exhausted -corruption, war, etc.- and held through sheer force. Current cohesion is through ideology -We Chinese are the best and shall rule. This is the true weapon, more powerful than any bomb. The US, if it intervenes, will be as welcomed as in any place in Latin America where they’ve been -the elite that makes business with them may greet them but use them as scapegoat for any shifty business going on, while the population stores karma and puts up civilian casualties as “practice for urban warfare”.

My :2cents: .

52

The Taiwanese electorate has given near-plenary power to the party that favors unification. As far as I can tell, the only reason Taiwan could want U.S. help now is to bolster Taiwan’s position in the unification process, and to attempt to rescue it should this process turn out badly. In other words, the U.S. is supposed to risk its well-being in order to help the unification powers in Taiwan in some kind of self-serving “tweaking” effort.

I don’t favor that. For what it’s worth (admittedly, next to nothing), I vote No.

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[quote=“Cueball”][quote]The submitted form was invalid. Try submitting again.[/quote][/quote] You can get the poll to work by going to User Control Panel > Board Preferences > My board style, and choosing prosilver-forumosa.

55

Pull out of Japan. Give Japan it’s military powers back. Restore the natural balance of power in the region and only intervene if one or the other compromises the independence of Taiwan.

It’s cheaper and we live in a time of fiscal restraint.

56

Thanks.

So, yes - the US should intervene. Even if one thought that defending the independence of 20+ million people was worth it, if the US didn’t take actiont then it would be showing that China rules the Pacific and that the US won’t tangle with it out of fear.

57

[quote=“Charlie Phillips”]Pull out of Japan. Give Japan it’s military powers back. Restore the natural balance of power in the region and only intervene if one or the other compromises the independence of Taiwan.

It’s cheaper and we live in a time of fiscal restraint.[/quote]

something makes me think that China is much much happier with a heavily armed US on its doorstep (in Okinawa and Guam and South Korea) than a heavily armed Japan, its mortal enemy. Well, Japan has little enmity with China but the relationship in the other direction is volatile, shall we say, and ripe with blind nationalist brainwashed sentiment.

Besides, the US holds the nuke card and Japan doesn’t. If you want to kill many tens of millions of Chinese quickly, you want nukes. And starvation. That’s always a good one, if a bit slow.

58

I thought Japan was half an hour and a screwdriver away from having nukes, however…

60

I disagree. I think there’s no way any armed conflict happens.
My predictions

  1. Status quo, very likely
  2. China slowly pressures the rest of the world to accept their control over Taiwan and the KMT/others see no other way and basically give in. There will be some benefits for them. Taiwan basically continues as is, or how HK was. This will take a long time.
  3. Xi gets the boot, he’s not popular in the party

Not too get too off topic

61

The status quo, where Taiwan functions like a country but is effectively excluded from the international community, is like dying from 1,000 small cuts. It’s so slow you don’t realize you’re dying until it’s too late.

China is already using Taiwan’s exclusion from the international community to hurt Taiwan.

I question how anyone who is even generally familiar with the last 100 years of Chinese history could conclude that this is even remotely realistic.

Xi has all but ensured that he will be in control of China for the rest of his life. He’s in the strongest position since Mao.

Obviously, there could be a black swan that changes things but there’s no guarantee a black swan will favor Taiwan. It could easily go the other way. In fact, any threat to Xi’s rule is dangerous to Taiwan since it creates a motivation for an external distraction that aims to unify China behind him.

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