You mean an Ill equipped military who has lost every war they fought? Yeah I know the history. I also know that China knows if it’s to be respected on the global stage, little quarrels like the one with Taiwan aren’t helping. They’re more likely to just ignore than to wage a world war.
That’s what it looks like on paper, but it’s obvious party members aren’t happy with the direction. Insiders has said. Xi has worsened China’s global image, bright them closer to war with many, their reputation with the Wuhan virus, the banking sector, the loans that can never be paid back by citizens who don’t have back up. The government can’t keep taking the numbers and this level of growth is unsustainable, should I go on?
Xi isn’t untouchable. I actually question your knowledge of China to make such statements.
Taking one or more of the outer islands in the next few years makes a lot of sense. They’re so close to China that doing so would be fairly easy and give China’s untested military a morale boost.
I doubt the US would risk a larger conflict over Matsu, Pratas, etc.
There’s hardly any forces on the closest matsu islands .
They know too difficult to defend possibly . Dongyin island will have missiles according to reports.
The opposite is actually happening.
Taiwan govt has invested heavily in beefing up armed forces and Taiwanese are now aware what would happen if taken over by China.
China is pushing south China sea…Militarization . They are also becoming harsher and harsher in their internal control especially restive regions and territories .
America is starting to take China threat seriously.
So the chance for peaceful resolution is actually reducing IMHO. Not necessarily full scale war but why everybody thinks armed conflicct such as Israel and Iran regularly experience won’t happen I’m not too sure.
Missile strikes probably first or outlying island blockade.
Taiwan has access to the open ocean, without anything to stop it.
That means for China to blockade Taiwan they would have to somehow control the waters to the east of Taiwan and block the port of Keelung. There is no possible way for them to do that without the US being able to intervene.
Yes, the US will move a massive amount of military assets, including the 7th Fleet, into a defensive position around Taiwan and hold it indefinitely, waiting for the Chinese to launch an assault on Taiwan proper.
Interviews with current and former Taiwan government officials, serving and former military officers, conscripts, reservists and U.S. and other foreign military experts point to dire weaknesses. With the exception of some elements of Taiwan’s military, including the air force, special forces and parts of the navy, decades of isolation and underfunding by successive governments have left the military hollowed out. In any Chinese invasion, much of the island’s expensive hardware would be unlikely to survive a barrage of PLA precision missiles and air strikes, current and retired Taiwanese officers say. Crack, resilient ground forces would be crucial to repel beach landings by Chinese troops and counter airborne assaults, they say.
In addition, Taiwanese service members and Western observers say, Taiwan is suffering a serious and worsening decay in the readiness and training of its troops, particularly its army units.
One army conscript told Reuters he had only fired between 30 and 40 rounds with his rifle during training and was never taught how to clear a jammed firearm. “I don’t think I’m capable of fighting in a war,” said Chen, the soldier, speaking on condition his full name not be disclosed. “I don’t think I’m a qualified soldier.”
“The military has been whittled down,” said Grant Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel who spent most of last year on the island evaluating its defense capability in a Taiwan government-funded research project. “It is almost as if fighting to defend the country is somebody else’s responsibility,” said Newsham, now a researcher at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies.
