Japan’s biggest trading partner-
22% of exports Japan to China; 25% of imports China to Japan.
(Taiwan- 40% of trade with China (counting HK))
Call me when that changes.
I don’t agree with your analysis at all. The state will just eat up the housing stuff and punish offshore investors. I think China is definitely going to slowdown, but they seem to be restructuring their economy now and we have to saw how that will play out.
Not sure what you mean with the COVID and manufacturing stuff and why you will think will matter.
China is basically going to slow down but still overtake US in nominal GDP.
What do you mean?
Are you saying that Japan is anti china but still trades a lot with China, so other countries will do similar?
OK. Good thing I don’t get paid for it. 
That’s fine, but people who make more expect more.
We shall see.
There is a good chance China overtakes US and then falls behind again, because of demographic issues. I still see China overtaking US at some time in next 15 years.
Depends what the US does as well. Basically shit all over itself for two decades and if they vote in another Trump, then fucked
I’m curious to what you think China overtaking the US will look like.
I mean, just in the news recently has been proof that the US is not planning on letting control of the shipping lanes go…new carriers, and now the nuke subs to Oz.
Could you clarify?
Yes I mean China will have a larger nominal GDP than the US. It has more people and is still growing and is leading in many industries.
It won’t overtake US in per capita GDP. Shipping lanes and Australia is irrelevant
Well, that’s the only overtaking that I’m interested in. YOurs seems to be an interest in lines on charts. have at it.
What?
I just said that it will overtake the US in terms of nominal GDP, not that will be the global hegemon. That’s a different discussion
You said this first. Just following up.
I find this stuff to be small ball. I believe that the richer the Chinese underclasses get, the more they will expect from the top. It’s just how liberal Capitalism works.
China is a Leninist Marxist country
Also the party is very popular. There are surveys and different metrics used by non Chinese researchers and think-tanks and all pretty much conclude that people are satisfied with the parties performance, especially in the economy. Also that satisfaction is significantly higher than a decade ago.
But roughly I agree that the party will struggle to perform as well as it did for the last two decades and there will be growing dissatisfaction, but it wont end in a challenge to the party.
If they bail them out they would be creating a precedent. Soon all big companies under mountains of debt would be asking for bail outs. It’s a band-aid solution to an entrenched, deeply troubling structural problem.
That’s really bad. China’s growth is already low if it wants to catch up. All countries that escaped the middle income trap had higher, sustained growth when their GDP per capita was 10k. The ones who didn’t (Brazil, South Africa etc.) all ended up stuck. The Chinese Communist Party went after the tech industry and the property construction sector is basically finished with Evergrande going under. China is now running out of growth engine.
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China’s biggest demographic problem is that the population is really uneducated. Only 30% of the working population has high school education or above.
The property stuff will cause slow down and some level of contagion, but the State has enough money and levers to kick the can down the road. Anyone creaming themselves that China is heading for an economic meltdown, doesn’t understand how China works.
I agree China has a lot of issues, especially demographic ones. The next decade will be tough. But at the same time, a lot of the rules that apply elsewhere don’t to China, because they have so many levers and control the media. They also can create new sectors and even order investors where to put their money.
So yeah they will slowdown, maybe even some stagnation, but they will still overtake the US in nominal GDP
That’s also not true if you are following , they just want the tech industry to focus more on the growth sectors of the future and less on e-commerce and entertainment. They are pushing Tencent each other to refocus
Whether they pull it off or not , we will see. But they are doubling down on tech right now
No, I agree, however, the growing dissatisfaction will present challenges to the party that it wont be able to answer with violent crackdowns.
That’s hilarious.
There are no tools in China for organizing nationwide protests. The state controls all means of communication. Anyway I don’t think will be that bad, just a lot of malaise when younger generation realize good times have gone.
China is a Leninist Marxist county, unless you are still living in the 90’s or early 2000’s and didn’t get the memo
I guess I got confused by all the money the people were making in the global market.
Anyway, it’s been fun, but the algorithm suggests we stop talking.
Yeah they tricked everyone.
China is a Leninist society, but a prosperous one
Borders, language, and culture.
Really shameful DC “leadership”
Rapid decline
I would yes. But it doesn’t have to continue.
The biggest issue that even most American skeptics have is that the decline of the US gives way to the rise of China.