Hi,
Kosovo’s declaration of independence should prove to be an interesting litmus test for Taiwan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKkS.KNAtG.U&refer=home
It will be interesting to compare Kosovo’s situation and Taiwan’s and see what the differences and similarities are.
It will also be interesting to see how the likes of the USA and other nations react to this.
Regards
Michael
And how is Kosovo like Taiwan?
Maybe I missed that year when NATO troops were stationed in Taiwan to keep the “ethnic cleansing” at bay.
AC,
Where in my post did I state Kosovo is like Taiwan?
My post wasn’t too long so it shouldn’t take you too long to point it out for me.
Regards
Michael
Okay my apologizes for mischaracterising your post to imply that Taiwan could follow Kosovo lead to Independence. Because then one would use the word “bellwether,” you clearly used the words “litmus test”…
Should Taiwan petition its independence from Free China, Red China, or Serbia?
Reductio ad absurdum
What I find very disturbing is that you are seeking to put Taiwan in a situation of economic disarry and ethnic strife in orders of magnitude much greater than what currently exist to illicit the sympathy of Western nations.
But why choose that path for Taiwan when it can clearly come to terms with Red China on its own without foreign military intervention, UN resolutions, or needless death and suffering.
AC,
A couple of things to note…
I think Serbia and Russia both disagree about this claim of independence - so it will be interesting to see what happens on that front. Will they declare war on Kosovo perhaps?
and in the articles I read - the declaration was done without the UN Security council’s approval - again something else worth keeping an eye on.
Regardless of which way things go - I personally feel the Kosovo issue will be on interest for Taiwanese whether they are seeking their own independence or not.
For the pro-Taiwan - it will showcase the possible steps required, for the pro-China it will highlight the possible dangers that may occur from those areas that do not want independence.
It will certainly make for a good thread of discussion. I’m looking forward to hearing other people’s views on this matter.
Regards
Michael
Hawaii, too. I’m sure they’re watching this keenly.
mkegruber,
In terms of geopolitics, Kosovo independence is just another vestigage of the collapse of the USSR and their influence in the region.
Unlike the USSR the PRC trend is increase influence in the region. To be not accutely aware of this primary fact would lead to miscalculations of the highest magnitude.
Russia and Serbia don’t have an ASL like PRC? I wonder why they were caught off guard? Obviously there must be some legal talent in PRC that have already foresaw this part of the end game in terms of Taiwan. Because if TI factions of Taiwan politics ever try to declare a Free China Independence, the PRC would just claim they were enforcing the ASL, and tell the western world to respect the rule of law.
So while Taiwanese were dying the street of Taiwan from missile fire. The next president of USA will be a “I don’t support war,” or a “I have more experience,” or a “I hate gooks” knuckle head behooven to PRC trade.
To simplify geopolitics of East Asia, when China is weak any and every cat and dog nation can carve the sphere of influence in the region. When China is strong, these cat and dog nations become vassal States.
One should follow the States that have a long history of being vassal States to China for success, ie Korea, Japan, Vietnam. Those are the real bellwehters in the region. Taiwan is relatively new to the game of vassal State. Blame it on those proud WSR, I guess. But if one watches those States with generational experience in bowing and in what direction they bow, one in Taiwan will know where to place ones bet.
AC,
You make some interesting points there - I agree, when China fell to Japan and surrendered Formosa to Japan in the 1800s, that would have signaled the first step along the same path that Kosovo has taken.
Since you’ve pointed out a similarity - what differences do you see?
I guess one, as you mentioned is that no nation has created an internal law to justify war on an external national, something like the Anti-Succession-Law (ASL) which China created for itself to legitimize a declaration of war on Taiwan. I guess Russia could follow China’s footsteps and create one now since China waiting over 100 years to make theirs - there really isn’t any time limit.
One thing I did find interesting is that Kosovo didn’t ask the UN’s approval to declare independence - thus avoiding Russia’s veto’s power in the security council.
To draw a parallel - “if” (and this a hypothetical mind you), if Taiwan were to follow Kosovo’s lead, then China’s veto power in the same said council would be just as worthless - wouldn’t you agree?
Regards
Michael
if the world has to go to war again for another Serbian nationalist screw-up, why can’t we just bomb the Serbians to hell and call it even.
The pro-western Serbian royalists were our allies in WW2; the Albanians were alligned with Hitler.
It’s not all one sided with the Serbians as the “bad guys.” The Croats were pro-Nazi during WWII. Their Ustashi slaughtered nearly 2 million Serbs, Jews, and Gypsies. When Croatia became independent in the early 90’s, they reinstituted the same policies they had during WWII against the Serbs: Kill 1/3, Export 1/3, and convert 1/3 to Catholicism (Serbs are Eastern Orthodox Christians). They slaughtered Serbs in the Krajina region in the early 90’s and drove most of the majority Serb population away by force.
Not exactly skinhead looking are they?
youtube.com/watch?v=0Gj4kk8BF7Q
As are the teeming separatist hordes on Vancouver, whoops, Victoria Island.
As are the teeming separist hordes on Vancouver, whoops, Victoria Island.[/quote]
What’s the symbol of the Hawaii Indpendence Movement. Numerous Leis?
how will also China react to Kosovo independence?
Will Taiwan announce that they support Kosovo and try to establish diplomatic ties? China might be in trouble with Russia if they make that movement… so a lot to win for Taiwan, if they play the card well…
The whole world waits on baited breath…
Might for sure not.
:roflmao:
Now, that’s funny…
which card is that, the joker?
Maybe CSB should fly to Kosovo right away and give out ROC tax dollars for mutual recognition?
[quote=“ac_dropout”]Maybe CSB should fly to Kosovo right away and give out ROC tax dollars for mutual recognition?
[/quote]
I think the KMT might have more areas of common interest to talk about. 
The GingerMan…
In a time where battling for recognition is a daily job for Taiwan, having one more country (and one that the PRC cannot recognize) will be a win-win situation for the locals.
Kosovo is close to Europe, and has close ties with Europe (€ is the official currency). How good it would be for Taiwanese companies to have preference treatment in a country who desperately needs FDI, and also to Taiwanese companies who need a cheap and easy base in Europe? They have FTA’s with other Balkan countries and could use the FTA’s as easy access to Europe. With a low inflation and a more or less stable growth, it is a good place to invest. With 40-50% unemployment rate, it is also a place where salaries are low. Major concerns that should be addressed first would be the infrastructures and electric grid.
Not to mention religous extremist…
I think Taiwan should wait for the dust to settle before making any pre-mature overchores to Kosovo. That region was reknowned for their ability to remain neutral during the Cold War.
It might be too early to commit and believe that Kosovo is aligned with US interest. Even if they allow for a US military base, I would wait and see.
I think Kosovo just confirms, yet again, that international law usually comes down to power. Without the ability to enforce its interests, Serbia has no choice but to grind its teeth and watch this happen. Regardless, I think the implications of Kosovo’s independence for Taiwan aren’t all that significant. Serbia isn’t China.
It’ll be interesting to see how long Serbia maintains its position on Kosovo. It may be only a few years before they give up their claims, or it may be decades (ala the Koreas).
And it looks like the EU and UN are staying out of the mess, until Serbia and Kosovo come to some understanding about their current situation.
Unlike Serbia, I don’t think the PRC is going to sit idly by if TI factions declared independence in the LY. Not to mention the PRC is on the UN security counsel, so its not like NATO forces are going to separate the PRC and ROC forces.
However, if TI factions declared southern Taiwan independent from ROC, I could see a Kosovo situation happening, since ROC military is hardly prepared to attack Taiwanese civilians anymore. Heck, half the conscripts are trained to direct traffic these days.
But for any of that to happen there has to be a real decline in social stability in Taiwan, which I don’t see on the horizon.