He’s a smart operator, he saw a chance to annex Crimea one way or another, and took it. In the end Ukraine doesn’t have a strong claim on Crimea and if the people vote to join Russia, well that’s it.
I think Crimea is a done deal since it looks like 70% is leaning Russian anyway. How could anyone go in there to liberate people who just said that they don’t want to be liberated.
Make no mistake, China is watching these developments with interest.
[quote=“bob_honest”]Well, I think he is basically a rational guy. So he wants to avoid WW3. He makes kind of a secret service gamble, the stuff he is used to. Like playing chess. Kill someone here and there, but not too many not to make a big thing out of it. Explore weaknesses, take advantage of them.
I personally think raising the level of deterrence will stop him. For instance, the Baltic states are NATO now. However a seemingly weak NATO may tempt him to gamble still about it.
Ain’t that somewhat logical?[/quote]
His secret service and spies murdered people in the UK with a poisoned umbrella, attempted assassination on the Chechen president until a war broke out, then he blamed it on the Chechens. And he’s got a peace award nomination, wtf?
They gave it to Ukraine in the first place. No one’s gonna do anything about it. But make no mistake-Putin wants the whole pie. This is just a lever.
The latest bad news is that Barraco Barner, the British President, is going to get involved in this mess.
[quote=“hansioux”]
His secret service and spies murdered people in the UK with a poisoned umbrella, attempted assassination on the Chechen president until a war broke out, then he blamed it on the Chechens. And he’s got a peace award nomination, wtf?[/quote]
People have been awarded the prize after having accomplished far less. Not that it matters.
The world belongs to people like Putin. Love them or hate them, you can’t ignore or despise them. In the cosmic battle between good and evil, Putin’s no bystander.
[quote=“hansioux”]
His secret service and spies murdered people in the UK with a poisoned umbrella, attempted assassination on the Chechen president until a war broke out, then he blamed it on the Chechens. And he’s got a peace award nomination, wtf?[/quote]
Just to clarify, the umbrella bit happened in 1978, and was a Bulgarian affair.
Litvinenko’s poisoning by the FSB involved tea.
FSB assasinations have targeted far more people inside Russia than out.
As for the Nobel Peace Prize, it is always been a bit of a sham. Established by a producer of armaments, there are a multitude of unsavoury winners of the prize. To say nothing of those that were nominated: even Hitler was for a brief period in 1939. We don’t even know the full list of other swine who have nominated, as they keep the list of nominations secret for 50 years.
I don’t understand the geopolitical situation in Ukraine, particularly after having just returned from Hungary where I asked my Hungarian colleagues what they thought of the situation in neighboring Ukraine. While expressing resentment at Russia’s sixty year occupation of their country, they seemed to support Russia’s historical claims in Crimea. Because of their deeply ingrained reticence about discussing politics in public though it was difficult to get them to elaborate on their belief so I ended up none the wiser. One thing I do understand clearly though is how farcical it is for a country which rolled troops into Panama, Grenada, Afghanistan and Iraq and which is bankrolling the annexation of Palestinian lands - a country which routinely recklessly fires missiles into civilian populations in Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan and Somalia - to be arguing that international law demands respect for the territorial integrity of sovereign nations.
International law demands all sorts of stuff, but doesn’t always get its way. The world can be unkind to highminded abstractions.
winstonsmith:
I imagine that many who are engaged in onanistic concerns germinated from a health dosage of moral relativism might be thus confused… I encourage you to continue to be thus confused… but ask yourself one question: would a Ukraine in the EU be different and may I be so bold as to continue in a now moralistically infused vein to ask “better” than one in a Russia-forced customs union? Naturally, I expect little in the way of a sensible response from one who probably imagines that the Taliban are a morally equivalent state actor along the lines of the US, Netherlands and Japan? Eh?
International law demands all sorts of stuff, but doesn’t always get its way. The world can be unkind to highminded abstractions.[/quote]
If those “highminded abstractions” are spoken from the high moral ground they carry surprising weight It’s been so long though that any nation has occupied the high moral ground that few remember the power of moral authority to sway minds and defeat tyranny.
International law demands all sorts of stuff, but doesn’t always get its way. The world can be unkind to highminded abstractions.[/quote]
If those “highminded abstractions” are spoken from the high moral ground they carry surprising weight It’s been so long though that any nation has occupied the high moral ground that few remember the power of moral authority to sway minds and defeat tyranny.[/quote]
Yeah, that jelly doughnut bit made all the difference in the world.
Reagan said something much later that was even more cool, but that didn’t really do the trick either. What did the trick was economic muscle and the willingness to let it do its work. Neither of which we have anymore.
There’s a certain silly sort of person who thinks that just because some rhetoric was inspiring and uplifting to him, that it must somehow change the world, or at least matter a lot. It doesn’t, at least not in the way these people think it does.
By the way, what’s the League of Nations up to these days? Haven’t heard much from them.
How’s that ruble doing these days? 10yr low despite a lot of support? Seems someone believes in sanctions, or at least the possibility of sanctions. Military adventures can be surprisingly hard to run when you run out of hard currency.
So that is morally equivalent to say, take Baja California, hold a referendum with the tourists and make it California?
Restrict the money flow as much to Russia as possible, start drill for shale gas, and import as much gas as possible for other sources, and Putin will be forced to back off.
Russia’s economy is in a terrible state, only part reformed and with no world beaters. They are selling oil and gas, and that’s the only thing keeping them afloat.
If we dare to cut off the money over say spring and summer, you will see them neutered relatively fast.
The political will for that does not exist, and that’s the problem.
[quote=“Mr He”]Restrict the money flow as much to Russia as possible, start drill for shale gas, and import as much gas as possible for other sources, and Putin will be forced to back off.
Russia’s economy is in a terrible state, only part reformed and with no world beaters. They are selling oil and gas, and that’s the only thing keeping them afloat.
If we dare to cut off the money over say spring and summer, you will see them neutered relatively fast.
The political will for that does not exist, and that’s the problem.[/quote]
Nor should it. First, the West has really no business getting involved. There was basically a pro-EU coup, and then the former president - still recognized by Russia - asked for Russian help. Russia has critical strategic interests in the Ukraine, and has not been violent in its moves. Yes, it’s messy but nothing the West need get deeply involved in.
Second, what’s Europe supposed to do for energy over the next few years until these shale oil deposits are conveniently exploited?
We could pay the funds into an escrow account until they budge. Summer is coming, after all.
World energy supplies are tight, so Russia holds a fairly good hand, it just needs to play it well. It would suit Russia to have Crimea vote to join Russia, for it to be annexed, for the world not to recognise Crimea for 10 years, and things to go on broadly as they were. I’d very surprised if they go for anywhere else in Ukraine, that to me would risk overstretch.
Unknowns in this, whether somebody starts a shooting match first!
None of that matters once they’ve seized those pipelines. They’ll loot whatever they need until there’s nothing left to loot. Just like before.
[quote=“rowland”][quote=“Elegua”]
How’s that ruble doing these days? 10yr low despite a lot of support? Seems someone believes in sanctions, or at least the possibility of sanctions. Military adventures can be surprisingly hard to run when you run out of hard currency.
[/quote]
None of that matters once they’ve seized those pipelines. They’ll loot whatever they need until there’s nothing left to loot. Just like before.[/quote]
They still have to sell it. But you have a point there: Without this mess, the price of oil would be dropping below 108 USD/BBL. Doesn’t Russia need something one the order of 117 USD/BBL to break even? 
Well, I for one am glad that Germany is getting rid of its evil nuclear industry so that the world will be safe from radiation. And I am glad that so many people are against shale gas development for its deleterious effects on water supplies. I am also thrilled that traditional energy sources have been taxed, over regulated and otherwise had investment discouraged. We don’t need any more evil pipelines, refineries and other nasty carbon-based energy forms and transportation methods. That is clearly why Europe is now within the enviable position of being able to tell Russia off about its behavior in Ukraine and to resist its econmic and energy pressures. I am sure that this week or maybe next or at the latest next month Europe will come up with a truly scary set of economic and political measures that will scare Putin into leaving Crimea. And with all the gun-toting cowboy leaders out there… thank God for the soft power of Europe. Clearly, this is something that has Putin pausing for thought… Europe will teach him that flouting international law is a very serious case of bad manners indeed! and I cannot wait to see his comeuppance! Take that Putin! So there!