It’s a perfect time for China to lay off Taiwan, and pay attention to its northern and western borders.
It’s a perfect time for Japan to throw off the shackles of it’s Macarthian constitution.
It’s a perfect time for South Korea to absorb its other half.
Feng shui and justice work together.
[quote=“Charlie Phillips”]It’s a perfect time for China to lay off Taiwan, and pay attention to its northern and western borders.
It’s a perfect time for Japan to throw off the shackles of it’s Macarthian constitution.
It’s a perfect time for South Korea to absorb its other half.
Feng shui and justice work together.[/quote]
along with karma! 
The only way China will lose interest in Taiwan is when Taiwan’s economy goes down
the crappr… which will happen pretty soon, according to el presidente Ma!
[quote=“Blaquesmith”]
4) If China wanted to invade Taiwan, they would be marching in Taipei in a couple of days. [/quote]
No, it’s far, far more complicated and difficult than that (for China.)
Taiwan retains an advantage in natural defense, as islands have been historically difficult to invade. The British Isles, for example, have not been successfully conquered since 1066, and tiny Pacific islands such as Guadalcanal, Iwo Jima, and Okinawa resulted in appalling loss of life by the Allies in World War II. The terrain of Taiwan island itself – mountainous and urban, with few flat or suitable landing beaches – also situates itself unfavorably for invaders seeking access via parachute or amphibious beachhead.
The PLA’s numerical advantage is misleading, at least in terms of ground troops; its superiority in numbers benefits China nothing in an invasion context. Due to more than 100 miles of water that separate Taiwan from China, any invasion of Taiwan must proceed either by air and/or by sea, and China has hardly the aircraft or shipping necessary to transport a vast invasion force.
The challenges are daunting for Taiwan, too, though, of course. Strategic depth is a concern, not only due to the PLA’s vast superiority in numbers, but also owing to the fact that Taiwanese defense units are likely to suffer large losses as the result of a devastating initial strike, leaving perhaps only a large fraction of all Taiwanese forces combat-ready afterwards. As such, Taiwan must build up a large inventory of weaponry and systems that surpasses its anticipated wartime needs, because it must assume that a portion of it will be lost due to Chinese attack. It is advisable for Taiwan to prepare forces sufficient to meet a 100 percent minimum floor of the capacity required to foil a PRC invasion attempt, then exceed that floor by another 25 or 50 percent to attain an overload. Redundancy becomes essential.
[quote=“Oxtail”][quote=“pugwall”]
I don’t think that is right. Mexico and Thailand would not be able to take the place of China. China has complete control over the supply chain for a lot of products, especially in Guangdong. Thats what stops a lot of companies leaving China despite rising prices and ridiculous bureaucracy.[/quote]
What does the US import from China that can’t be sourced elsewhere at a higher price? There are a lot of things that nobody else bothers to manufacture because it’s cheaper to get it from China. That doesn’t mean other countries can’t manufacture them if the price is right.
The US runs a massive trade deficit with China. China has way more to lose in a trade war because nobody else will be able to absorb that amount of goods they make no matter how low they cut their prices. American customers paying more for goods is an annoyance. Chinese factories shutting down and millions of people losing their jobs is a disaster.[/quote]
I think a lot of things would be difficult to build with out least Chinese components in 2014. American companies having to move their operations elsewhere would be a disaster, not to mention the importance of the Chinese market for American companies. Get over yourself. :loco:
And China won’t notice this buildup and launch a preemptive strike? Your kidding right?
[quote=“PeregrineFalcon”][quote=“Blaquesmith”]
4) If China wanted to invade Taiwan, they would be marching in Taipei in a couple of days. [/quote]
No, it’s far, far more complicated and difficult than that (for China.)
Taiwan retains an advantage in natural defense, as islands have been historically difficult to invade. The British Isles, for example, have not been successfully conquered since 1066, and tiny Pacific islands such as Guadalcanal, Iwo Jima, and Okinawa resulted in appalling loss of life by the Allies in World War II. The terrain of Taiwan island itself – mountainous and urban, with few flat or suitable landing beaches – also situates itself unfavorably for invaders seeking access via parachute or amphibious beachhead.
The PLA’s numerical advantage is misleading, at least in terms of ground troops; its superiority in numbers benefits China nothing in an invasion context. Due to more than 100 miles of water that separate Taiwan from China, any invasion of Taiwan must proceed either by air and/or by sea, and China has hardly the aircraft or shipping necessary to transport a vast invasion force.
The challenges are daunting for Taiwan, too, though, of course. Strategic depth is a concern, not only due to the PLA’s vast superiority in numbers, but also owing to the fact that Taiwanese defense units are likely to suffer large losses as the result of a devastating initial strike, leaving perhaps only a large fraction of all Taiwanese forces combat-ready afterwards. As such, Taiwan must build up a large inventory of weaponry and systems that surpasses its anticipated wartime needs, because it must assume that a portion of it will be lost due to Chinese attack. It is advisable for Taiwan to prepare forces sufficient to meet a 100 percent minimum floor of the capacity required to foil a PRC invasion attempt, then exceed that floor by another 25 or 50 percent to attain an overload. Redundancy becomes essential.[/quote]
Nope. Taiwan can’t beef up its military in a perceptible manner because then China can say they’re “provoking”. Also, I’m convinced that there are many people in the military that just see that as an easy way to become a public worker, but they don’t really want to fight. In case the Chinese planned a fast strike, with airborne drones and sh*t to take out air defenses (they have a lot of drones, based on the US Predator drones’ blueprints stolen by some spies). Once the air defenses are out, make a quick blockade around the island and begin targeting strategic objectives. Taiwan wouldn’t stand a fast assault.
As for the long siege thing, the perspective is even worse. US could not intervene or they would risk an all-out war with China, and many US companies have serious interests in the chinese market. a US intervention would provoke boycott for the US products there, and the supply of rare metals for the US industry would be cut. Some of them have alternative suppliers, but many don’t. I think the US would prefer returning to the cold war with Russia than risking an open war with China. There are also a lot of chinese students/workers in the US, and there have been cases of sensitive information being stolen and sent to the chinese. No, the US wouldn’t intervene. They don’t even recognize the ROC officially!
[quote=“Blaquesmith”]
Nope. Taiwan can’t beef up its military in a perceptible manner because then China can say they’re “provoking”. Also, I’m convinced that there are many people in the military that just see that as an easy way to become a public worker, but they don’t really want to fight. In case the Chinese planned a fast strike, with airborne drones and sh*t to take out air defenses (they have a lot of drones, based on the US Predator drones’ blueprints stolen by some spies). Once the air defenses are out, make a quick blockade around the island and begin targeting strategic objectives. Taiwan wouldn’t stand a fast assault. [/quote]
how many people honestly think the Taiwan military will fight back if PLA manages to land 100,000+ troops on the shores of Taiwan? for all we know, a few hundred or thousands of them might already be roaming the night markets in Taiwan as we speak.
when that happens, what’s the US going to do? launch a military strike against the Chinese mainland? get real…
[quote=“FurTrader”]
how many people honestly think the Taiwan military will fight back if PLA manages to land 100,000+ troops on the shores of Taiwan? for all we know, a few hundred or thousands of them might already be roaming the night markets in Taiwan as we speak.
when that happens, what’s the US going to do? launch a military strike against the Chinese mainland? get real…[/quote]
The PLA currently lacks the means to do that efficiently. China has always been about land wars and defending its own borders, and less about US style amphibious assaults.
[quote=“FurTrader”][quote=“Blaquesmith”]
Nope. Taiwan can’t beef up its military in a perceptible manner because then China can say they’re “provoking”. Also, I’m convinced that there are many people in the military that just see that as an easy way to become a public worker, but they don’t really want to fight. In case the Chinese planned a fast strike, with airborne drones and sh*t to take out air defenses (they have a lot of drones, based on the US Predator drones’ blueprints stolen by some spies). Once the air defenses are out, make a quick blockade around the island and begin targeting strategic objectives. Taiwan wouldn’t stand a fast assault. [/quote]
how many people honestly think the Taiwan military will fight back if PLA manages to land 100,000+ troops on the shores of Taiwan? for all we know, a few hundred or thousands of them might already be roaming the night markets in Taiwan as we speak.
when that happens, what’s the US going to do? launch a military strike against the Chinese mainland? get real…[/quote]
Exactly my point. They have enough people to spare. With their industry, they can manufacture an attack force in no time (if they don’t have it already). They might send a few thousands as tourists on advance and have them walking around, as you say… they can stay for 90 days with no visa, and you can get a lot of people in in 90 days.
Remember that they already claim sovereignty over Taiwan. It would be inside “their own borders”, in their own perspective. As for Amphibious assaults, I’m sure they can copy whatever they need from the US defense files they got from a couple of spies, like the predator drones:
One day they may have the ships to do it, but they don’t have them now. Please see the title of this thread!
Chinese don’t get 90 day visa free entry to Taiwan.
[quote=“Blaquesmith”][quote=“FurTrader”][quote=“Blaquesmith”]
Nope. Taiwan can’t beef up its military in a perceptible manner because then China can say they’re “provoking”. Also, I’m convinced that there are many people in the military that just see that as an easy way to become a public worker, but they don’t really want to fight. In case the Chinese planned a fast strike, with airborne drones and sh*t to take out air defenses (they have a lot of drones, based on the US Predator drones’ blueprints stolen by some spies). Once the air defenses are out, make a quick blockade around the island and begin targeting strategic objectives. Taiwan wouldn’t stand a fast assault. [/quote]
how many people honestly think the Taiwan military will fight back if PLA manages to land 100,000+ troops on the shores of Taiwan? for all we know, a few hundred or thousands of them might already be roaming the night markets in Taiwan as we speak.
when that happens, what’s the US going to do? launch a military strike against the Chinese mainland? get real…[/quote]
Exactly my point. They have enough people to spare. With their industry, they can manufacture an attack force in no time (if they don’t have it already). They might send a few thousands as tourists on advance and have them walking around, as you say… they can stay for 90 days with no visa, and you can get a lot of people in in 90 days.
Remember that they already claim sovereignty over Taiwan. It would be inside “their own borders”, in their own perspective. As for Amphibious assaults, I’m sure they can copy whatever they need from the US defense files they got from a couple of spies, like the predator drones:
motherboard.vice.com/blog/hacker … cas-drones[/quote]
Wow, imagine being so paranoid that you think tourists are some kind of advanced scouting force.
By that logic, we should be safe then, because Taiwan has a lot of people in mainland too, we could sneak our crack commando units to assassinate Xi when that happens. Just have them pretend to be tourists in forbidden palace and hop over to 中南海 when the time’s right.
[quote=“Blaquesmith”]
Taiwan can’t beef up its military in a perceptible manner because then China can say they’re “provoking”. [/quote]
Then what exactly do you call Taiwan’s acquisition of F-16s, Mirage 2000s, Kidd-class destroyers, AH-64E Apaches, AH-1W Cobras, UH-60s, Pave Paws, PAC-2, PAC-3, SM-2, I-HAWK, TK-2, HF-2, HF-3, AIM-120s, M-60 tanks, C-130s, CH-47 Chinooks, E-2T Hawkeyes, Perry-class frigates, Lafayette-class frigates, P-3Cs, and M-109 Paladins over the past two decades… if not “beefing up its military in a perceptible manner?”
So you don’t think there are any spies amongst them?
Wasn’t Sun Tzu Chinese?
Here are three quotes relevant to this thread:
Quote A: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting”
Quote B: who wishes to fight must first count the cost"
Quote C: “Every battle is won before it’s ever fought”
Take away: China will wait. They are currently in a position they control. This is the most important thing to them.
T
[quote=“BigJohn”][quote=“JillyPolla”]
Wow, imagine being so paranoid that you think tourists are some kind of advanced scouting force.
[/quote]
So you don’t think there are any spies amongst them?[/quote]
I suspect most are sleepers, not spies. (i.e. they don’t do any active spying, just hanging around waiting for orders once the PLA land on Taiwan)
[quote=“FurTrader”][quote=“BigJohn”][quote=“JillyPolla”]
Wow, imagine being so paranoid that you think tourists are some kind of advanced scouting force.
[/quote]
So you don’t think there are any spies amongst them?[/quote]
I suspect most are sleepers, not spies. (i.e. they don’t do any active spying, just hanging around waiting for orders once the PLA land on Taiwan)[/quote]
Yeah, all those housewives, retirees, family with children, etc are all sleeper agents.
I can’t imagine being so paranoid to think tourism from mainland is some kind of grand conspiracy to grant a backdoor to China. If they really want to send agents, they certainly don’t need tourism to do it.
[quote=“JillyPolla”][quote=“FurTrader”][quote=“BigJohn”][quote=“JillyPolla”]
Wow, imagine being so paranoid that you think tourists are some kind of advanced scouting force.
[/quote]
So you don’t think there are any spies amongst them?[/quote]
I suspect most are sleepers, not spies. (i.e. they don’t do any active spying, just hanging around waiting for orders once the PLA land on Taiwan)[/quote]
Yeah, all those housewives, retirees, family with children, etc are all sleeper agents.
I can’t imagine being so paranoid to think tourism from mainland is some kind of grand conspiracy to grant a backdoor to China. If they really want to send agents, they certainly don’t need tourism to do it.[/quote]
Go to the Taiwan National Immigration Agency’s own published reports and see how many
mainland Chinese males aged 20 to 35 were admitted as residents in the last 11 years.
Don’t take my word for it, see the official reports.
Tourism would be be the easiest way to get people over just prior to an invasion, sure. They wouldn’t be much use without weapons although they could pinpoint targets for landing forces.
Landing on Taiwan wouldn’t be that easy, so they’d have to accept possibility of large losses initially, and they could accept that I am sure. The military aspect of the initial campaign is by no means assured success, but again they could just blockade. A blockade would be damaging to their own economy too.
I don’t see the military thing happening anytime soon as long as Taiwan continues to make it a lot more difficult than Crimea and Ukraine to invade!
I agree it seems unlikely that large numbers of Chinese visitors will be spies. What’s the need? Many of the retirees from and families with children in Taiwan’s military are already doing the spying for Beijing. 