I agree it seems unlikely that large numbers of Chinese visitors will be spies. What’s the need? Many of the retirees from and families with children in Taiwan’s military are already doing the spying for Beijing. 
[/quote]
Exactly, why spend the money to send people over and live here, when you could buy hanjians for less cash.
Case officers. Handlers of the assets u mentioned. Also special saboteurs etc in case of war.
China hasn’t found a way to make a profit off war… until it does, war is somewhat unlikely.
(just think… how much of the US economy depends on the defense industry, either directly
or indirectly)
[quote=“FurTrader”]China hasn’t found a way to make a profit off war… until it does, war is somewhat unlikely.
(just think… how much of the US economy depends on the defense industry, either directly
or indirectly)[/quote]
I can’t even imagine how out-to-sea some of the posters to this threads must be to think the PLA’s infrastructure to wage war in Taiwan wouldn’t be in a heap of smoke and rubble within 72 hours of hostilities. This is 2014, not 1944; it takes more than parachutes and landing craft to wage war.
For example: Do you have nay idea the stealth ATG and AS capabilities of the F-22? Most of you sound like my drunk uncle at thanksgiving when you start reciting population figures and the ‘will’ of the Chinese fighters.
As for Taiwan’s response: They will not drop their panties and run for cover at the local KTV, As long as there is American support, which there ver much will be, the Taiwanese will fight to the end. I’ve never met a person on this island that wants to see the ‘5 star red flag’ hanging round these parts.
But this is all Tom Clancy nonsense. China 's not fucking stupid, and their leaders don’t take topless selfies while riding bareback and/or fly-fishing.
Here are some more quotes to help you understand the psychology of the enemy.
Sun Tzu:
“Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting”
“There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare”
“It is best to keep one’s own state intact; to crush the enemy’s state is only second best”
T
You seem much more certain about that than the presidents of any of the three countries involved.
You seem much more certain about that than the presidents of any of the three countries involved.[/quote]
There certainly will be support if a Republican president in office. Democrats on the other hand…
Japan is the wildcard. They know it is in their interest to keep Taiwan out of China’s hands, not to mention their population are overwhelmingly anti-Chinese. I don’t think many Japanese would mind if they revised their constitution in the name of defending Taiwan.
You seem much more certain about that than the presidents of any of the three countries involved.[/quote]
American support? Can I take that to the bank?
Let’s review… President Truman’s original plan was to let Chiang Kai-Shek rot and be overrun by the Chinese communists… fortunately for CKS, the North Koreans saved him by invading South Korea, triggering the Korean War… the US begrudgingly changed its policy and became buddies with the KMT government, saving Taiwan for the next couple dozen years.
Next… one of the most anti-commie US president, Richard Nixon, went to China and shook hands with Chairman Mao.
Next… President Carter went all in and severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan and officially recognized the People’s Republic.
Need I go on?
I’ve heard from a number of people that Taiwan is independent, not part of China and doesn’t want to be part of China, but if the choice came down to war or HK-style SAR, they’d prefer the latter.
You seem much more certain about that than the presidents of any of the three countries involved.[/quote]
There certainly will be support if a Republican president in office. Democrats on the other hand…
Japan is the wildcard. They know it is in their interest to keep Taiwan out of China’s hands, not to mention their population are overwhelmingly anti-Chinese. I don’t think many Japanese would mind if they revised their constitution in the name of defending Taiwan.[/quote]
It was President Bill Clinton who sent two aircraft carriers to Taiwan when China was shooting missiles over the island to prevent elections, which at the time they took as a huge threat. It was not long after that China made it official policy to try to control Taiwan, Tibet, HK, etc, financially instead of with force. President Horse is either wittingly helping them do this or he is too dumb to see what they are doing. You don’t even have to read between the lines. China is not going to attack Taiwan because they would lose the bigger war-they are going to keep doing what they are doing because it is working.
China hasn’t found a way to make a profit off war… until it does, war is somewhat unlikely.
(just think… how much of the US economy depends on the defense industry, either directly
or indirectly)[/quote]
That may be true, but it doesn’t stop them making preparations for it.
I don’t think so. The majority of Taiwan prefers the status quo because it wants to peacefully co-exist with China. This doesn’t necessarily mean they’d prefer SAR over war. When it comes down to it, majority do not want to be under CCP China, even if it takes a war to remain sovereign.
I don’t think so. The majority of Taiwan prefers the status quo because it wants to peacefully co-exist with China. This doesn’t necessarily mean they’d prefer SAR over war. When it comes down to it, majority do not want to be under CCP China, even if it takes a war to remain sovereign.[/quote]
I’m not so sure that most Taiwanese want to unite with mainland
China, even if China has a regime change and a democratically
elected government is in place. (unless the regime change is
effectuated by the United States and/or Taiwan? 
)
I’m sure China is desperate to normalize relations with Taiwan, and benefit from Taiwan’s wondrousness.
All around the world, students, protesters, and ideologues are fond of occupying places.
Macho men like Putin, and Kim Jong Un like to sport particular hairstyles and invade places.
Let us support the most democratic of the disparate systems, and respect the people’s wishes.
Anyone who disagrees is a pretentious bully, a demagogue, and/or a tyrant.
I just posted a novel to Amazon Kindle that is about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan- if anyone would want to read it, I’d like to see how well I covered the details of life on Taiwan. You can see reviews and a description of the novel at: amazon.com/Dragon-Storm-Chin … agon+storm
I will email free copies in .doc format to the first 3 people who contact me at my email address, if they are willing to post the review to Amazon.
As to the initial question…No, this is not the perfect time to invade. China’s current focus is South China sea. After they gain control of the South China Sea I think their next focus will be Taiwan…but that is after a small “war” with the squatters as China labels them…
The problem for China pushing against Japan or the Phillipines is that both are treaty members of SEATO and the US is obligated by it’s own law to join them in their own defense. Taiwan, on the other hand, has no formal treaty with the US. If the Chinese leaders think they can pressure the US into backing off, Taiwan looks like an end run around their SEATO neighbors. Or they could just invade Vietnam- hell, if they did that, most Americans would just pop some popcorn, sit back and watch the show, laughing out loud.
true… so… in the event of an actual Chinese invasion, the best course of action
for Taiwan to take is to make sure the Chinese also attack Japan at the same time?
as in if I’m going down, I’m taking both of you(US and Japan) with me?
(hold on while I put on my tinfoil hat) there are historians who claim that China’s
involvement in the Korean War was suggested to Mao by a couple of ex-KMT
officials who joined the CCP in 1940s. They didn’t want to see Mao launch an
attack to finish off the KMT forces on Taiwan. Seeing the US basically abandoning
Taiwan at the time, they knew that if China joined the North Koreans in the war,
the US would have no choice to get involved and put Taiwan under its protection.
Their plan sure worked… Mao was duped into sending forces to Korea. That
action indirectly saved Taiwan.
(tinfoil hat off)
Taiwan and Mongolia share a similar purpose; and that is they both serve as “assurance buffer zones”. With their own political and legal systems; I very much doubt either country would ever be completely absorbed/integrated back into mainland China. Western countries granting Taiwanese citizens visa-free travel pretty much confirms this diplomatic recognition. The SARs also serve an indefinite purpose as the gateway/backdoor in and out of the mainland. Hong Kong for goods, services and people; Macau for capital (laundering).