Without the U.S., Taiwan has zero chance against a Chinese invasion.
Unfortunately, it is clear that the US can’t do a thing to defend a small country against a large country. (i.e. Ukraine against Russian Federation) Russia knows the US lacks the economic strength, military might, and political to do anything to help Ukraine at the moment.
If China launches an invasion against Taiwan tomorrow night, what is the US going to do? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Sad but true. Taiwan may survive for a week to a month… but eventually, the only option is capitulation. Look at how pathetic those Ukranian soldiers looked when they marched out of their bases in Crimea under Russian guns. Okay, fine, there is the other option for Taiwan, which is to fight until the bitter end. U.S. sanctions against China? Fogetaboutit… it will hurt the US a lot more. People in the U.S. won’t even be able to buy tidy whities at their local Walmarts.
The US and EU haven’t come down hard on Russia because ultimately, they have no interests at stake in the Crimea and no form of defensive relationship with Ukraine. They also recognize that in annexing Crimea, Russia has probably engendered enough animosity to have lost the rest of Ukraine, which the EU will benefit from mid-long term.
China invading Taiwan unprovoked would be an entirely different scenario. Both the US and likely Japan would feel their interests are under direct attack and would be forced to respond.
I don’t know, maybe the PRC could do it without any major problems. Me, I don’t know, me.
On the eve of the American Civil War, lots of people on both sides were certain that it was going to be short-lived, a cake walk for their side.
I think that a pretty good number of conflicts that were initially conceived as “splendid little wars” have turned out to be not so little and not so splendid.
I read that Sulla, the great Roman military leader, who was said to have the cunning of a fox and the courage of a lion, used to pack a small statue of Fortuna with his belongings wherever he went.
The US would do nothing along with Japan except saber rattle.
The Chinese economy is too intertwined with the world to start a war with them without taking out the world economy. Plus both sides have nukes and the means to use them.
if those students who are occupying the Legislative Yuan have the cojones,
I’ll donate my frequent flyer miles so they can fly to Beijing and occupy
Tiananmen Square… I should have enough miles to fly at least 8 or 9.
Wait, make that 16 one-way tickets, since I doubt they’ll need round-trip.
[quote=“FurTrader”]Without the U.S., Taiwan has zero chance against a Chinese invasion.
Unfortunately, it is clear that the US can’t do a thing to defend a small country against a large country. (i.e. Ukraine against Russian Federation) Russia knows the US lacks the economic strength, military might, and political to do anything to help Ukraine at the moment.
If China launches an invasion against Taiwan tomorrow night, what is the US going to do? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Sad but true. Taiwan may survive for a week to a month… but eventually, the only option is capitulation. Look at how pathetic those Ukranian soldiers looked when they marched out of their bases in Crimea under Russian guns. Okay, fine, there is the other option for Taiwan, which is to fight until the bitter end. U.S. sanctions against China? Fogetaboutit… it will hurt the US a lot more. People in the U.S. won’t even be able to buy tidy whities at their local Walmarts.[/quote]
A trade war hurts the country that relies on exports a lot more than the country that imports everything because it’s a few dollars cheaper. The US would just need to find another country willing to sell stuff. Which is like every developing country in the world. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico would jump to land the hundreds of billions in orders that would be on the market if the US dumped Chinese manufacturing. Worse comes to worst, the US just starts manufacturing it’s own goods. Prices go up, but you produce a lot of jobs. China would need to find a massive market willing to run up a huge trade deficit to buy their goods. Not sure such a market exists in the world that could absorb the massive amount of goods they produce each year outside of the US.
People in the US would have to pay a little more for junk at Walmart. Meanwhile people in China get thrown out of jobs as factories shut down.
[quote=“peger”]The US and EU haven’t come down hard on Russia because ultimately, they have no interests at stake in the Crimea and no form of defensive relationship with Ukraine. They also recognize that in annexing Crimea, Russia has probably engendered enough animosity to have lost the rest of Ukraine, which the EU will benefit from mid-long term.
China invading Taiwan unprovoked would be an entirely different scenario. Both the US and likely Japan would feel their interests are under direct attack and would be forced to respond.[/quote]
Well, you have in fact a totally different case scenario there:
More than half of Europe (and specifically, Germany) depends on Russian gas. If the russians get pissed, no gas.
They get that gas through Ukraine. If the ukranians get pissed, no gas.
If they piss anyone, no gas. So they must resort to “condemn” russian actions without raising their voice a lot. Putin knows it’s just for show and continues doing what he does, and if the ukranians complain, they can say “hey, we complained”.
The US is far away and doesn’t depends on anything, but he already has ships in the Mediterranean, so it really doesn’t care.
Russia already did have its ships on the Mediterranean anyways, because they had the military base in Sebastopol.
Crimea is just Josef Stalin birthplace and Putin was getting nostalgic.
Now for the closest scenario:
The US and Japan have interests in Taiwan
Japan can’t do a f*ck if they’re not directly attacked, thanks to their constitution written under close supervision (some would say directly) by general MacArthur. The japanese army is strictly defensive and they can only employ a balanced force equivalent to what the enemy used to counterattack. If the attacker doesn’t use ballistic missiles, they can’t use ballistic missiles, either.
The US are far away and they don’t want China to invade Taiwan, but breaking trade agreements with China would mean losing a sixth of the global population as a market. US companies don’t want that. And the US companies that make things in China might see how all their data is stolen and their factories nationalized.
If China wanted to invade Taiwan, they would be marching in Taipei in a couple of days. Taiwan can’t stand a long siege without the island getting devastated, and then it would be worthless.
Taiwan has an army, but the chinese could send a single adult to fight to the death for every man, woman and child in Taiwan. They have overpopulation, anyways, and 23+ million people wouldn’t suppose a big dent in China’s pool.
Now everything is fine, but the moment China feels they’re losing face because of Taiwan, we’re f*cked. The DPP guys know (but won’t admit) that, and the KMT guys know that.
The KMT is basically stalling things as much as they can, giving small concessions to China to appease the guys at Beijing and hoping that the moment will come (better sooner than later) when the regime in China becomes a democracy (at least in theory) and then the reunification can happen without them losing face.
And that’s basically it. If it was in occident, the guys would meet someplace private, measure their man-parts, and then one would win and the other lose. no problem. Here, they have too lok at each other’s faces.
[quote=“Oxtail”][quote=“FurTrader”]Without the U.S., Taiwan has zero chance against a Chinese invasion.
Unfortunately, it is clear that the US can’t do a thing to defend a small country against a large country. (i.e. Ukraine against Russian Federation) Russia knows the US lacks the economic strength, military might, and political to do anything to help Ukraine at the moment.
If China launches an invasion against Taiwan tomorrow night, what is the US going to do? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Sad but true. Taiwan may survive for a week to a month… but eventually, the only option is capitulation. Look at how pathetic those Ukranian soldiers looked when they marched out of their bases in Crimea under Russian guns. Okay, fine, there is the other option for Taiwan, which is to fight until the bitter end. U.S. sanctions against China? Fogetaboutit… it will hurt the US a lot more. People in the U.S. won’t even be able to buy tidy whities at their local Walmarts.[/quote]
A trade war hurts the country that relies on exports a lot more than the country that imports everything because it’s a few dollars cheaper. The US would just need to find another country willing to sell stuff. Which is like every developing country in the world. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico would jump to land the hundreds of billions in orders that would be on the market if the US dumped Chinese manufacturing. Worse comes to worst, the US just starts manufacturing it’s own goods. Prices go up, but you produce a lot of jobs. China would need to find a massive market willing to run up a huge trade deficit to buy their goods. Not sure such a market exists in the world that could absorb the massive amount of goods they produce each year outside of the US.
People in the US would have to pay a little more for junk at Walmart. Meanwhile people in China get thrown out of jobs as factories shut down.[/quote]
I dont think that is right. Mexico and Thailand would not be able to take the place of China. China has complete control over the supply chain for a lot of products, especially in Guandong. Thats what stops a lot of companies leaving China despite rising prices and ridiculous bureaucracy.
I don’t think that is right. Mexico and Thailand would not be able to take the place of China. China has complete control over the supply chain for a lot of products, especially in Guangdong. Thats what stops a lot of companies leaving China despite rising prices and ridiculous bureaucracy.[/quote]
What does the US import from China that can’t be sourced elsewhere at a higher price? There are a lot of things that nobody else bothers to manufacture because it’s cheaper to get it from China. That doesn’t mean other countries can’t manufacture them if the price is right.
The US runs a massive trade deficit with China. China has way more to lose in a trade war because nobody else will be able to absorb that amount of goods they make no matter how low they cut their prices. American customers paying more for goods is an annoyance. Chinese factories shutting down and millions of people losing their jobs is a disaster.
Assuming the defense minister weren’t just bluffing, he could hope to hold out for a month. That should give America enough time to get its act together.
The funny thing is, even if America doesn’t intervene, I doubt the current ccp elite cadre lasts a month in an unprovoked (read: without Taiwan unilaterally declaring independence) war on Taiwan.
The attack would last exactly as long as it takes soldiers who don’t want to be in the army anyway to lay down their weapons. With the number of people eagerly trying to go to China to work, I don’t think that many people, relatively speaking, are willing to give up their lives to keep the Chinese out.
Also see: China has no interest in invading Taiwan. They know that doing so is the best way to give independence activists a cause celebre.
For 1, Has anyone ever heard of Yugoslavia? The Balkans? The 1990s? That’s about what Europe and the US really thinks about ex-soviet territories. When the genocide and refugees start numbering in the millions, maybe they’ll get a couple fighter jets.
For 2, America owns the Pacific, it is a place it has fought to control for over 70 years. Eastern Europe on the other hand is not their ‘backyard’.This is, however, supposed to be England and France territory. You know, the big guys of Europe with the nukes and armies. WTF is NATO again? America has some interest in everything, but this is, if anything, Western Europe’s problem.
for 3, Crimea is a Russian territory. It is filled with Russian people, their culture and their language; not to mention their military bases. Russia’s politics and economy is the same as Crimea’s politics and economy. There’s a reason the casualty toll in this conflict is around 0. New boss, same as the old boss.
for 4, China will never invade Taiwan. The days of Chiang vs. Mao are behind us. It’s now all power brokers and carpetbaggers. Much like big business, The territory of Taiwan can be viewed as a lost asset, in the process of a long play strategic move to recoup the lost commodity. Fighting the USA with bullets is a fools game, fighting them at their own games is the way of the wise man.
