Pelosi visiting Taiwan in August 2022

Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan raises concerns China might interfere with airspace, US official says

I say we dont need / want her here. It will just stir up trouble. What’s the point?


I think that is the point. The higher the threat to Taiwan, the more weapons they need to buy from the US. Taiwan is exactly where the US wants it to be.


Maybe she’ll choke on mochi, but I doubt that works on the undead.


It’s a tough one. On the one hand it sends a strong signal to China where the US stands, on the other hand it provokes an unavoidable response (the CCP can’t just wring their hands forever). On one hand China doesn’t and shouldn’t dictate the actions of elected US officials, on the other hand there is no concrete benefit (like there would be from delivering weapons).

Perhaps the announcement of a possible trip is itself a carefully designed message and no actual trip was ever planned? A real trip might just happen and then be announced fait accompli, which would be the safer route to avoid intimidation from inexperienced and jingoistic PLA pilots

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Possible. The US is implementing a “strategic mulling” approach (to visits, trade, dialogue, etc) to draw out the timelines of everything and hopefully keep the tensions slow-moving. Actually the flatten the curve analogy works well politically too.

The impatience of the opposition can also sometimes reveal their hand without requiring action, and thus gives the US an opportunity to counter.

There’s definitely Game Theory at play.


Rumor has it Pelosi is coming to Taiwan to get insider tips on Taiwan tech stocks.


Personally, I don’t think the US should be allowing an 82 year-old to influence the shaping of the future of US/China/Taiwan relationships when she will not be around to deal with the potential outcomes…

I wouldn’t have trusted my grandparents with the car keys…let alone the future of the world order…


I dont really believe getting her plane shot down is the real reason. They wanna put all blame on china if she doesnt visit. The truth is if she didnt come, the real reason is that they chickend out


Because the way to deter China is not to be a wimp.

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Now that Pelosi responded we can see exactly what happened. The infamous Wrap-Up-Smear.

Step 1: the Leak
Pelosi had someone “leak” a visit.

Step 2: the audience Reacts
China hears it and reacts publicly.

Step 3: witness escalates rumor
Then reporters asked Biden about it. Biden said the military thinks it’s not a good idea - very interesting he would divulge that info.

Step 4: Deny prior knowledge then escalate rumor even more and complete the smear, regardless if it’s true or not
By the time Pelosi is available to respond, the rumors have grown. — Pelosi at the presser is then asked by journalist what she thinks about Biden saying the military doesn’t think it’s a good idea. Pelosi says she never announces travel and that she hasn’t heard what Biden said, then she proceeds to escalate the rumor to include China possibly attacking her.

Pelosi successfully smeared China, making the CCP look like the gangsters they really are on the world stage in public discourse. And in this case it’s totally appropriate.

Poke a rattlesnake with a tiny twig, you are bound to be bit. It is needless provocation. Reckless.

If you poke, better have an axe in the other hand ready to chop the snakes head off.

Is the US prepared and willing to do that?

Out smarting a powerful enemy could prove to be more useful than “not being a wimp”.

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I’m all for US officials visiting Taiwan, but this isn’t a great situation. With the US publicly debating whether they’re afraid of what might happen, it’ll look really weak if she doesn’t go. While the US hyping up what China might do puts China in the position of having to do something other than complain, or else they look weak.


US can call Taiwan a country anytime, others will follow suite. the issue is they intentionally dont want to. and the time frame that this is possible without war seems to be closing. Heck, why not keep giving ccp more and more money, time and tech until it’s too late. Now THATS strategic logic!!

unfortunately strategically logical for the Chinese, sigh :frowning: we cant complain about ww3 in a few decades. really, just cant…we earned it.

There’s no way China will try and implement a no-fly zone, as that means war, so what do y’all think they might realistically do?

I could see them having planes shadow hers – but not deep into TW airspace, if at all.

Military exercises in the TW strait.
Banning all flights from TW into China.

Maybe something completely unrelated, like kicking out US diplomats in China, cutting export of rare earth elements, something like that?

maybe start thinking long term. 50 years from now, if the world keeps on enabling this bullshit, you might not think they cant pull that shit as they are too dog then. the worry isnt this year, it’s long term. something China has proven, talks about and isnt shy about. they will win if we (the world) keep being morons focused on the carrot dangling directly in front of our face.

Yeah but I’m not talking about the long-term, but their immediate reaction. I feel like they’ll have to (in their mind) respond in some way

A surprisingly good article:

Another article claims multiple sources say that privately China has warned the US of possible military responses.

I think I understand now the possibility of Chinese jets flying over Taiwan. If they intercepted and escorted Pelosi’s plane, over international waters, flying very close (as they and the Russians often do when confronting US planes), then it wouldn’t be possible for AA or Taiwanese jets to fire on them. So they could theoretically follow her into Taipei.

They could also fly in such a way as to make it unsafe for her plane to descend.

BUT obviously if they follow her in, and she does land, then they have to leave unprotected. If they’re on their way out, does Taiwan shoot them down?

I still think they have so many economic levers that they could pull that they might do that vs something military. They could stop trade with Taiwan or seize TW-owned assets in China. Who knows. Tho that’d lead to an exodus of international companies probably, as already started under Trump.

Playing chicken works until it doesn’t one day.


Someone told her about the Gaoliang in Taiwan :crazy_face:

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ya ,short term fine. long term is more important though as has been proven many times when it comes to the ccp.

I have a feeling Pelosi will back out and the US will continue being the spineless backstabber we have always known them to be.

Hopefully not, but the world probably wont start recognizing Taiwan until its waaaaay too late. likely as a knee jerk to war. It is preventable though, now.

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