Tsai has been publicly warned by the US not to provoke China or they will not help Taiwan. They hated the Chen era and she has had to spend 4 years convincing them that she is not another Chen.
You are right, China is not ready to make the invasion or incur the costs, especially if the the US is involved, but there are limits. We can live a happy life on this island, strengthen the military, clean out the institutions of spies and double agents and live as ROC-Taiwan until the situation changes.
Sure, infiltration is part of the psychological and political warfare. This tells you China desperately wants to lower the cost of military invasion, because the current cost/risk is still too high, by China’s calculation.
Had it been true that Taiwan’s declaration (or any word game on Taiwan’s part) would compel China to take military action (implying that China “has no choice but”), then it would have followed that China’s military would willingly put itself into a predicament where the timing not of its own choosing.
Does it appear to you that the Chinese military would do so? No. Obviously not. However, they would like you to believe so.
Nope. Tsai and US have tacit mutual understanding. “likeminded” is repeated and echoed. US had a policy change since the 2nd term of Obama administration, where US since then designated China the “aggressor / provocateur” instead of Taiwan.
Well, Taiwan is an island, and it is in the Pacific, and it also happens to be the home of the Austronesian speaking people, so it’s fitting to have a Pacific island looking flag.
The thing is without external support Taiwan can not win and there is no way US will help Taiwan if it “antagonizes” China. At the very least China will capture the outlying islands and no one will lift a finger for Taiwan.
TBH, I am worried about this stuff more. They came really really close with Han. Dont forget he was in the lead for most of 2019.
He spent a lot of time pulling on the cultural strings (they are trying to take our culture) and I am really worried that changes such as wording will ignite this. Feeling of Identity is a powerful thing and can be manipulated (see Trump or Brexit), so Taiwan should tread carefully. The biggest dangers are from within
The period of time when Han was leading in poll was the time when the poll was inaccurate /incapable of capturing the true political leaning of the entire electorate. Many pundits made the wrong judgement then. I wasn’t one of them.
Han was destined to fail. Han was basically Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je’s creation, who deceptively convinced China (through China’s appointee Wan-Wan owner 蔡衍明）that Han could defeat the DPP. Once Ko sensed that China fell for the trap, he proceeded with his plan by elevating Han’s importance, and then convincing Han to run for Kaohsiung. Ko is a brilliant strategist.
China thought Han could win. He was a superstar there mid last year. Everyone loved him and he was the talk of Weibo.
If they went with a more capable candidate that got out of bed before midday, then things could have been bad.
When they realized they had no chance with Han, they forced the KMT to put Wu Sze Huai on the 不分區 list. At least they can still have their man on the inside. Again getting rid of Wu or arresting him is the most important thing right now.
Weibo, being CCP’s own echo chamber, could not have interpreted Taiwan’s politicking and Taiwan’s politician-strategists’ move correctly. CCP’s propaganda has a weakness, which is that it must always consider its domestic consumption as first priority.
You are absolutely correct in reading this CCP move.
That’s basically duplicating another “Crimea” move, which Russia pre-emptivley did so already in 2014, which angered US Obama administration tremendously. Russia “took away” China’s move, in that there is no longer the element of surprise for China to enjoy by copying Russia. This Crimea 2.0 will be followed by US military stationed on Taiwan. Which is a net win for Taiwan.
I don’t know why you are attacking me.
I’m familiar with China talking ‘red lines’, changing the name of the country constitutionally could be on it.
I don’t see the point of doing that when it doesn’t straighten out strategic position.
You are going to piss off the US when you need the US the most.
It’s not important that ROC is removed from Taiwan.
That won’t get Taiwan anymore international recognition. The Republic of Formosa existed in history before…! It didn’t last very long !
What’s important is our fundamental military and economic strength. We need to build up the armed forces and get investment. Not doing a CSB and shouting and raving a lot but nothing happening.
If Taiwan wants to become officially independent they have to be willing to fight a brutal war. Develop WMD. Look around you and ask the willingness to do this. What is the picture of success in your mind ?
What matters is military and economic strength along with support of the people. Tsai is working on all those things.
We need to build up a much more capable military to give China real pause for thought. We all know Chinese only respect strength not weakness.
Her best quality is her calmness against China. But I think Taiwan’s main issue right now isn’t chinese meddling or political Infiltration. There are still so many people that would sell out.
Nothing can change this way. We couldn’t even change our Olympics name with the referendum when even the Japanese were rooting for us to. It’s embarrassing. Even our athletes feared retribution and went to protest the name change from Chinese Taipei on TV. What a joke.
To denote the form of governance. In this case, a representative democracy.
Also, most countries use a longer official title. Mexico is officially Los Estados Unidos de Mexico, for example (yes, their name is the United States of Mexico).
. He couldn’t even get himself registered on time.