Indeed, Israel faces a truly existential threat. Here, it’d be a change in management; and looking at Taiwanese culture where people tend to submit even to abusive bosses or toxic work places, it doesn’t give me much confidence that the Taiwanese can/will fight beyond some token resistance.
The US is the top dog in defense innovation precisely because the government throws grants and these areas, and the relatively permissive low(er) tax & regulatory environment compared to other countries, although this is changing.
I only have one source for the situation on the ground in this area in China, but from what I heard when the CCP designates a technology and torch-bearer as a priority, the bureaucracy and funding issues disappear. Mandarin is synonymous with bureaucrat, yet for key technologies, at least their government knows how to put money on the table and cut the BS.
Hong Kong isn’t a good example as it wasn’t an invasion, it had been handed over in 1997. As such, China could just leverage the HK Government and HK Police against the people of Hong Kong. Whilst even getting the HK Courts to play along.
I’d suggest that the results would be different in Taiwan, if the transition of power came about by invasion.
For better or worse, the results will certainly be different. The PLA will be involved, it would be a war at every level (kinetic to trade to cyber to psy-ops), with local traitors/sympathizers/informants and the gloves will be off.
True, but the decision will be whether Philippines wants to get involved (directly or as a staging area) in a fight between China and Taiwan.
Let’s be very honest how Taiwanese view their South East Asian neighbors. The exception is Singapore, where it isn’t disdain with a bit of superiority mixed in, but jealousy. Same difference.
The pro-democracy activists and employees of the Apple Daily would beg to differ. The rewriting of the National Security Law and making treasonous acts retroactive - along with the disappearing of many activists - certainly makes it comparable in terms of existential crises.
Beg to differ with what?.. that was what I eluded to. They used the HK police and HK Courts to instigate a crackdown.
That is very different to invasion, detention camps and summary executions. Which are possible outcomes from a war/invasion.
It doesn’t make it comparable at all. For one PLA troops had been stationed in Hong Kong since 1997. Two, they weren’t losing a country, they never had one. Three, the crackdown on civil liberties, press, politicians and incarcerations, is nothing in comparison to what is at risk in Taiwan should there be an invasion.
Well… Here are the options for Philippine leadership to consider.
One is a place that has some racist people towards your people.
One is a place that run by a government intent on subjugating you, has no way to change that government, actively promotes hatred to foreigners within its borders to everyone, runs organised crime within your borders and takes advantage of your corruption to actively set you back and on top of that, wants to expand all of those ills to your sea border.
Hong Kongers would beg to differ that it wasn’t an “invasion”. While short of bombing out buildings and wholesale massacres - the crackdowns on the pro-democracy protests is very much what would take place post-occupation had it been an armed invasion.
The detention camps were further inside the mainland and thousands of people were disappeared or arrested under the National Security law. I don’t at all doubt that the most vocal or prominent faces were executed and we never hear about it.
Having a base with personnel stationed onsite is not the same as having total political and military control over an area. The residents of Hong Kong had far more autonomy prior to the CCP breaking their side of the agreement of HK autonomy and self-rule when the councilmembers were replaced with CCP figureheads.
Not arguing that Hong Kong was a country, but it was a semi-autonomous city-state ala Singapore for many many years. [Edit: Macau I believe still has this similar arrangement]
These acts are part and parcel - not mutually exclusive of - what would take place post-invasion and occupation.
You really have no idea, do you. What has happened in Hong Kong isn’t even on the same level of the White Terror that happened in Taiwan, and that in turn could pale in comparison to what would happen if China is successful in invading Taiwan.
What has happened in Hong Kong has been a civil crackdown. That is far removed from a military crackdown.
The Philipines connection is just for US military staging, anything else is irrelevant. The only real question is whether American leadership sees the value in preserving Taiwan’s independence. Fortunately they seem to at the moment, but…
We don’t know that Taiwan isn’t going to be handed over in a similar (not identical) fashion. I don’t believe the ChiComs have armed invasion as a a first choice. Best for them is a HK-esque handover
It is possible, depends on how bloody the invasion and immediate aftermath is. Also possible that the results of an invasion is that the defence collapses quickly, as does morale, and the people are largely left alone for some years before the changes are salami sliced in (again, not completely different from HK)
I think it won’t meaningfully be their decision, especially if it happens in the next 4 years. Either the US isn’t involved, in which case the Philippines would be martyrs to get involved. Or the US is involved, in which case their own self interest will compel the Philippines to get involved
An invasion of a place where the people arent already ethnically Chinese. Here in Taiwan there are already a lot of family and business ties across the straight, common language and traditions and in many ways culture.
As with HK. Lots of HK people have chosen Taiwan because it isn’t so different from where they left. Many of them could have chosen the UK, but didnt…
