I predict: Tsai 55%, Soong 26%, Hung 19%.
I don’t think Tsai is going to come out of this with an outright majority.
Tsai 48%, Hung 26%, Soong 25%
[quote=“Taiwanguy”] I don’t think Tsai is going to come out of this with an outright majority.
Tsai 48%, Hung 26%, Soong 25%[/quote]
I think that the movement from blue to green has been bigger than the 3% you predict, IE last election was 51.6% for Ma, 45.63% for Tsai, and 2.77% for Jimmy.
I would think that at least 5% of the population has gone from blue to green, and that would mean that Tsai will end up with a slim majority.
In the 2014 9 in 1 election, the DPP secured 47.55% of the vote, against the KMT getting 40.7% If you compare that to the 2009 local elections, you see swing at around 6-7%. That would see Tsai at around 51%-52% of the vote, with Jimmy and gollum fighting over the rest.
Tsai 49%, Soong 26%, Hung 25%.
[quote=“Mr He”][quote=“Taiwanguy”] I don’t think Tsai is going to come out of this with an outright majority.
Tsai 48%, Hung 26%, Soong 25%[/quote]
I think that the movement from blue to green has been bigger than the 3% you predict, IE last election was 51.6% for Ma, 45.63% for Tsai, and 2.77% for Jimmy.
I would think that at least 5% of the population has gone from blue to green, and that would mean that Tsai will end up with a slim majority.
In the 2014 9 in 1 election, the DPP secured 47.55% of the vote, against the KMT getting 40.7% If you compare that to the 2009 local elections, you see swing at around 6-7%. That would see Tsai at around 51%-52% of the vote, with Jimmy and gollum fighting over the rest.[/quote]
I think there has been a bigger movement as well…But I also think of the previous green voters, there will be a few percentage points that migrate to Soong for whatever reasons. I still don’t think there will be a clear majority win.
Song will be aiming light blue. he will eat from Hung, not so much from Tsai.
Of course…But aiming light blue will bleed over into the light green as well. He will definitely take more from Hung than Tsai, but I think he’ll take enough from Tsai to keep her from getting a clear majority of the electorate.
Maybe so, however she will win with a clear plurality at the very least. Only deep blues will claim that she lacks legitimacy. Regarding Soong? Early days, a lot can gov rong.
Probably worth remembering that Soong was polling 15-20% in August 2011. He wound up with less than 3%. Hung’s weakness will help him but it remains to be seen by how much.
Too bad you’re not taking bets… 
If I have to bet with my own real money, here’s my prediction.
Tsai 48%
Soong 9%
Hung 43%
Do I at least win a new iPhone 6S Plus if my predictions turn out to be correct? 
Here are my totally arbitrary numbers: Tsai ~45%, Soong 35%, Hung 20%. This is the first general election in Taiwan’s history where the KMT is 99.9% guaranteed to lose, and may even come in last place! Voting excites me.
Hmm, that’s apples and oranges, I think. Local elections tend to focus on local issues as well as partisan politics. In Taichung, Jason Hu suffered because the BRT was a terrible idea; in Taipei, Ko was simply a better candidate than Lien; in Keelung, the popular KMT candidate was discarded last-minute due to corruption charges; in Hualien, independent Fu Kun-chi was the incumbent. If you want to look at what real voter sentiment looks like, use New Taipei as an indicator for “blue-leaning” districts, and Chiayi City as an indicator for “green-leaning” districts; Changhua I think fairly well sums up what a battleground state looks like. We can obviously totally ignore Miaoli and Hsinchu County, which would elect a chicken if the chicken had KMT membership, and Tainan and Kaohsiung, which would do the same for a DPP chicken.
I don’t know what the numbers will look like, but I wonder if some higherups in the KMT are not at this point considering withdrawing the nomination for Hung and making it a Soong-Tsai faceoff. Now that would be interesting.
[quote=“Hokwongwei”]Here are my totally arbitrary numbers: Tsai ~45%, Soong 35%, Hung 20%. This is the first general election in Taiwan’s history where the KMT is 99.9% guaranteed to lose, and may even come in last place! Voting excites me.
Hmm, that’s apples and oranges, I think. Local elections tend to focus on local issues as well as partisan politics. In Taichung, Jason Hu suffered because the BRT was a terrible idea; in Taipei, Ko was simply a better candidate than Lien; in Keelung (Jilong), the popular KMT candidate was discarded last-minute due to corruption charges; in Hualian, independent Fu Kun-chi was the incumbent. If you want to look at what real voter sentiment looks like, use New Taipei as an indicator for “blue-leaning” districts, and Jiayi City as an indicator for “green-leaning” districts; Zhanghua I think fairly well sums up what a battleground state looks like. We can obviously totally ignore Miaoli and Hsinchu County, which would elect a chicken if the chicken had KMT membership, and Tainan and Kaohsiung, which would do the same for a DPP chicken.
I don’t know what the numbers will look like, but I wonder if some higherups in the KMT are not at this point considering withdrawing the nomination for Hung and making it a Soong-Tsai faceoff. Now that would be interesting.[/quote]
KMT came in last in 2000 as well.
Tsai 52%
Soong 18%
Hung 35%
Because nothing makes sense this election.
Didn’t Lien finish last in 2000, the KMT candidate?
Too bad you’re not taking bets…
If I have to bet with my own real money, here’s my prediction.
Tsai 48%
Soong 9%
Hung 43%
Do I at least win a new iPhone 6S Plus if my predictions turn out to be correct? [/quote]
Hung 43%? Yeah, you should be glad you’re not betting real money.
Democracy in the Republic of China is a beautiful thing to watch.
Yes, but there was no guarantee that that’s how it would happen. Lien stood a chance to beat Soong. I don’t think Hung has that same chance.
You are so positive.
Yes, but there was no guarantee that that’s how it would happen. Lien stood a chance to beat Soong. I don’t think Hung has that same chance.[/quote]
yeah, someone please explain to me in simple English why Soong received so many votes in 2000? 
have another question:
Whoever wins the presidency, does his or her oath of office(or whatever it’s called) mention the word “Taiwan” anywhere in the official text?
You are so positive.[/quote]
I’m the exact opposite. World peace is overrated. Do you know how many hundreds of millions
of soldiers, politicians and defense contractors will lose their jobs if world peace happens?