Short answer: He was up against Lien Chan, who basically did not work hard to be loved by the people. Everything about Lien speaks to a former era of political campaigning; he acted and spoke like he was ordained to be next in line, and anyone else was a usurper. Also voters were kind of pissed at the KMT for being the KMT.
Longer answer: Everyone recognizes Taiwan has turned more green over the past four years, but this is not the first time that has happened. Prior to 2000, the country was already moving that direction – CSB was mayor Taipei, and a lot of traditionally blue places these days went green, like Taipei County. Soong had been popular as the first and only elected governor of Taiwan Province, and when the KMT passed him over he left in a huff to run as an independent. At that time, Soong was a household name, and so even without the support of his party he draw a huge number of loyal blues who liked him more than Lien.
(My analysis: If Chen had been a better president, probably the 2008 election would look a bit more like this one.)
No, just “the people of the country” and “the country.”
I’d say it’s far from a given that Hung winds up third. Granted, she is an absolute disaster, but she has the 15% or so of the electorate that’s comprised of deep blues sewed up. Soong & the PFP have no real base and no assets on top of that.
Lots of doors will open will for a DPP president. She’ll be able to accomplish anything she wants with the support of her party in the legislature, making the KMT the frustrated and powerless mess that the DPP was during the first term of Ma’s presidency. Psychologically, it would be a mandate that the people really do want the DPP in power, and it could embolden them to pursue their interests more aggressively.
Posting numbers at this point is just guessing, but I can see Tsai potentially breaking 50% even with both Soong and Hung in the race.
In somewhat related news, I just saw Hung on the news talking about all of the power outages after this typhoon. She said to solve this they really need to start building nuclear plant 4 again. Someone needs to explain to her that power needs lines to get from plants to homes. Building 100 more plants of any kind won’t stop power outages during typhoons. She is really a dumb person. :loco:
This is by far the least realistic prediction thus far. While Tsai is likely to win, I doubt it will be this much of a landslide. If she got 75% of the vote, she would have a mandate almost unheard of in modern democratic countries. It would be a blank check to do anything. She could declare formal independence on the second day in office and say, “well I have the backing of nearly all of the country.” That’s… not likely.
I’m the exact opposite. World peace is overrated. Do you know how many hundreds of millions
of soldiers, politicians and defense contractors will lose their jobs if world peace happens?[/quote]
You say that like its a bad thing.
It’s about time three of the occupations that cause the most misery found themselves on the bottom.
just what exactly will happen if DPP does become majority(or even a 2/3 supermajority)
are there things that the can do that can’t do currently?[/quote]
The legislative is the law making body in Taiwan. The president has no veto power and can br stymied by an uncooperative LA. The dpp would be in a position they have never been in if they also win the LA.
As an example the only judicial reform in Taiwan happened around 2002 or 3 when the kmt had lost a majority in the LA (not to the dpp alone of course).
Badly needed environmental legislation would also likely pass if the DPP had both the presidency and LA. They would also be able to appoint judges to the supreme council that we not Ma Ying-jeou stooges. As it is, ALL judges now on the highest body in the judiciary have been appointed by Ma and this is largely because the LA held back all Chen appointments.
This is by far the least realistic prediction thus far. While Tsai is likely to win, I doubt it will be this much of a landslide. If she got 75% of the vote, she would have a mandate almost unheard of in modern democratic countries. It would be a blank check to do anything. She could declare formal independence on the second day in office and say, “well I have the backing of nearly all of the country.” That’s… not likely.[/quote]
hypothetically, even if she won 99% of the votes, can she possibly
declare independence? so the commies are just going to sit on their
hands and do nothing? :roflmao: That seems about likely as Iran
changing its laws and allow same-sex marriages.
just what exactly will happen if DPP does become majority(or even a 2/3 supermajority)
are there things that the can do that can’t do currently?[/quote]
The legislative is the law making body in Taiwan. The president has no veto power and can br stymied by an uncooperative LA. The dpp would be in a position they have never been in if they also win tge LA.
As an example the only judicial reform in Taiwan happened around 2002 or 3 when the kmt had lost a majority in the LA (not to the dpp alone of course).[/quote]
There are a lot of things that DPP can do with a majority in LA, including devolution of power and merger into 6~7 metropolitan states. And like Mucha said, judicial reform into a true independent judiciary at the metro-state level, and also law enforcement at the metro-state level.
Greater political power at the metro-state level then lead to confederation.
There are many ways independence from the ROC can materialized. This is done by simultaneously controlling the ROC on the one hand, and entering into confederation on the other hand. This is feasible without changing a word of the constitution for the ROC institution.
This is by far the least realistic prediction thus far. While Tsai is likely to win, I doubt it will be this much of a landslide. If she got 75% of the vote, she would have a mandate almost unheard of in modern democratic countries. It would be a blank check to do anything. She could declare formal independence on the second day in office and say, “well I have the backing of nearly all of the country.” That’s… not likely.[/quote]
hypothetically, even if she won 99% of the votes, can she possibly
declare independence? so the commies are just going to sit on their
hands and do nothing? :roflmao: That seems about likely as Iran
changing its laws and allow same-sex marriages.[/quote]
Independence can be achieve without declaration of independence. See Canada.
:roflmao:
This is by far the least realistic prediction thus far. While Tsai is likely to win, I doubt it will be this much of a landslide. If she got 75% of the vote, she would have a mandate almost unheard of in modern democratic countries. It would be a blank check to do anything. She could declare formal independence on the second day in office and say, “well I have the backing of nearly all of the country.” That’s… not likely.[/quote]
hypothetically, even if she won 99% of the votes, can she possibly
declare independence? so the commies are just going to sit on their
hands and do nothing? :roflmao: That seems about likely as Iran
changing its laws and allow same-sex marriages.[/quote]
Independence can be achieve without declaration of independence. See Canada.
:roflmao:[/quote]
or better yet… like Singapore 50 years ago, when Malaysia basically said
“get the f*** out and have your own country, we don’t want you in ours” :roflmao:
Can you imagine way out in the future when China is so repulsed by Taiwan
that they reject reunification completely? (while Taiwan begs to be reunited
with mainland China)
just what exactly will happen if DPP does become majority(or even a 2/3 supermajority)
are there things that the can do that can’t do currently?[/quote]
The legislative is the law making body in Taiwan. The president has no veto power and can br stymied by an uncooperative LA. The dpp would be in a position they have never been in if they also win tge LA.
As an example the only judicial reform in Taiwan happened around 2002 or 3 when the kmt had lost a majority in the LA (not to the dpp alone of course).[/quote]
There are a lot of things that DPP can do with a majority in LA, including devolution of power and merger into 6~7 metropolitan states. And like Mucha said, judicial reform into a true independent judiciary at the metro-state level, and also law enforcement at the metro-state level.
Greater political power at the metro-state level then lead to confederation.
There are many ways independence from the ROC can materialized. This is done by simultaneously controlling the ROC on the one hand, and entering into confederation on the other hand. This is feasible without changing a word of the constitution for the ROC institution.[/quote]
This is by far the least realistic prediction thus far. While Tsai is likely to win, I doubt it will be this much of a landslide. If she got 75% of the vote, she would have a mandate almost unheard of in modern democratic countries. It would be a blank check to do anything. She could declare formal independence on the second day in office and say, “well I have the backing of nearly all of the country.” That’s… not likely.[/quote]
hypothetically, even if she won 99% of the votes, can she possibly
declare independence? so the commies are just going to sit on their
hands and do nothing? :roflmao: That seems about likely as Iran
changing its laws and allow same-sex marriages.[/quote]
Independence can be achieve without declaration of independence. See Canada.
:roflmao:[/quote]
or better yet… like Singapore 50 years ago, when Malaysia basically said
“get the f*** out and have your own country, we don’t want you in ours” :roflmao:
Can you imagine way out in the future when China is so repulsed by Taiwan
that they reject reunification completely? (while Taiwan begs to be reunited
with mainland China)[/quote]
The Singapore precedent is applicable in the sense that Taiwan could potentially kick out Kimoy and Mazu. But most likely it is Kinmoy and Mazu that need to hold a plebiscite to determine if they want to join the Taiwanese confederation. If not, then they continue to be under the full jurisdiction of ROC and ROC armed forces. It will not be an odd situation at all.
