I’m still not going to guess/ predict, but there is a new poll out today, the first since Soong officially announced:
Tsai: 42.9
Soong: 23.3
Hung: 16.8
m.nownews.com/n/2015/08/10/1776448
That undecided number seems a little low for this early and compared with past election polls in Taiwan. Soong would need all the undecided to win, which is not going to happen. Tsai is in pretty good shape- this is hers to lose.
With so many low approval ratings of the KMT during Ma’s last term, I can’t believe that people even vote for them. As far as Soong is concerned, well I’m not sure why he even runs. Don’t ya love it when politicians run for office when they know they aren’t gonna win?!
But anyway I’m more interested in how the election results are altered when china intervenes. I seriously don’t think china will just sit back and quietly watch the DPP return to power. I believe that china will try using their economic power and influence over Taiwan to force Ma to make compromises before the elections.
If Tsai does win… I wonder what china will do? Since Ma brought in the diplomatic truce which china did not officially agree to, yet they follow it. It hasn’t stopped china from establishing high level economic trade with Taiwan’s allies. And it’s been said nefore that so much trade between china and the 22 countries that still recognize Taiwan could put china in a position where they could very well break the diplomatic truce and conveniently establish ties with many of Taiwan’s allies almost over night. And the economics between china and many of those 22 countries will put Taiwan at a disadvantage when it comes to fighting to maintain their ties with those countries.
China tried doing that in 1996 and it just gave rise to very strong anti-Chinese sentiment in Taiwan. They’re smart enough to know better.
It’s more likely they’ve already gotten in contact with Tsai’s people and are talking about how they will interact in the future. Tsai is no dummy either, and she knows that pushing China the way Chen Shui-bian did will only make life miserable for her, her party, and the Taiwanese people. China hasn’t been a responsible player all the time, but they are certainly capable of being rational and figuring out how to get the best deal out of the inevitable way things will go. The biggest difference between the KMT and CPC is that the KMT would rather shut its eyes and pretend these things aren’t happening, while the CPC will figure out how to turn events to its favor.
(in alphabetical order)
Hung 12%
Soong 13%
Tsai 75%
[/quote]
Tsai would never get that much of a voting turnout. Actually that kinda reminds me of a couple articles I read I think in late 2007 (wish I could find them). It was on taiwanheadlines.gov.tw and they were titled “massive DPP win could move US hand”. Or something like that. And it explained that if the DPP won a 75% winning result in 2008, that could spark the US to review it’s one china policy and their overall policy towards Taiwan. Such a win would be too highly significant and that would be telling the world what the Taiwanese people really want and the US could not just ignore it. I can’t remember exactly how it was explained. Again, I wish I could find that article. It also explained how the US could then pressure some countries in Europe, and other parts of the world to follow through with Taiwan diplomatic recognition as well.
Regardless, it didn’t happen. Too bad that one article alone wasn’t put on the front page of every newspaper in the whole entire country. Hsieh would’ve had a stronger chance for sure. US recognition? Couldn’t say no to that. But regardless, it didn’t happen.
And the idea of Tsai getting a reault that large, ummm… I think china will intervene somehow and make sure that will never be the case.
[quote=“Hokwongwei”]China tried doing that in 1996 and it just gave rise to very strong anti-Chinese sentiment in Taiwan. They’re smart enough to know better.
It’s more likely they’ve already gotten in contact with Tsai’s people and are talking about how they will interact in the future. Tsai is no dummy either, and she knows that pushing China the way Chen Shui-bian did will only make life miserable for her, her party, and the Taiwanese people. [/quote]
She’d be voted out after one or two terms and then she would be charged with any criminal charge that will stick. And she’d suffer the same fate Chen Sui Bian did. And we all know why Chen is really in jail. Only because he stood up to china and led the country down a greater path of human rights and democracy. If Tsai does that, she’ll go to jail too.
And for the record, china isn’t a responsible player at all. I say china is completely irresponsible. Here’s why. Taiwan has a much greater level of social harmony, law and order, civil liberties and freedoms and such, whereas china doesn’t. A Taiwanese friend of mine told me he met chinese who visited Taiwan and after spending a short time there, they now agree Taiwan is a xountry and is far better than china. Also they wished that hina could be more like Taiwan. What’s my point? My point is this. I think china should worry about their own social disharmony and corruption in their own country before they worry about Taiwan. The Taiwanese are much better off and the only real problem facing them is china. So all the effort china puts into worrying about Taiwan could instead be put into fixing their own country, their own social disharmony, their own domestic corruption, and all domestic issues the chinese care about. For that matter, all domestic issues that effect the chinese people have nothing to do with Taiwan at all. A responsible player should attend to the needs of their own people and worry about them first.
[quote=“Cooperations”]I’m still not going to guess/ predict, but there is a new poll out today, the first since Soong officially announced:
Tsai: 42.9
Soong: 23.3
Hung: 16.8
m.nownews.com/n/2015/08/10/1776448
That undecided number seems a little low for this early and compared with past election polls in Taiwan. Soong would need all the undecided to win, which is not going to happen. Tsai is in pretty good shape- this is hers to lose.[/quote]
There was an article in Thinking Taiwan today on Soong’s bid which articulates much better than I did why Soong is unlikely to win a large share of the vote. In addition to being old and baseless, he has to content with Blue voter anxiety that the KMT will finish dead last in a three way vote. That is likely to change a lot of voters minds in the last few weeks to either not vote or side with Hung.
Yes I think it is due to the perception gap. To the Hungs on Taiwan they perceive the imminent defeat as an existential threat. (Soong sees it as an opportunity though). China on the other hand may be frustrated for the moment, but according to Thinking Taiwan and other watchers they have plan Bs.
As we move further and further away from 1949-50, in the near future, China might even ditch the whole theme of ww2 history when it comes to propaganda targeting Taiwan. There is already a fatigue, an apathy developing.
Chen Shui-bian is in jail because he was corrupt. The judge put him there on a technicality that is quite questionable, but I don’t think anyone except his diehard supporters actually believe he was innocent.
Anyway, there will undoubtedly be some terrible thing Tsai has done in the past that has never come to light, which will conveniently be brought to light by a KMT legislator just a few weeks before the election. Prosecutors will begin looking into it and voters will go to the polls with the alleged scandal still unfolding. Shortly after the vote, the case will be dropped. It’s what happened to her last time and what’s still happening to Ko Wen-je.
Well that’s basically the same as saying “according to the DPP…”
Well that’s basically the same as saying “according to the DPP…”[/quote]
No. DPP members do not write on Thinking Taiwan (the English Version of it. That’s what I mean.)
[quote=“Hokwongwei”]Chen Shui-bian is in jail because he was corrupt. The judge put him there on a technicality that is quite questionable, but I don’t think anyone except his diehard supporters actually believe he was innocent.
Anyway, there will undoubtedly be some terrible thing Tsai has done in the past that has never come to light, which will conveniently be brought to light by a KMT legislator just a few weeks before the election. Prosecutors will begin looking into it and voters will go to the polls with the alleged scandal still unfolding. Shortly after the vote, the case will be dropped. It’s what happened to her last time and what’s still happening to Ko Wen-je.[/quote]
Evidence shows that he is innocent. He was sentenced only for the Long-Tan case in which the only evidence was falsified testimony extracted from Jeffrey Koo.
Hanxious went over this at length.
Well that’s basically the same as saying “according to the DPP…”[/quote]
No it’s not and it’s not to your credit you think this.
Ignoring that it’s fully funded by Tsai Ing-wen’s think tank, when’s the last article that was critical of the DPP or said anything good about the KMT? Are there any articles that don’t implicitly espouse the DPP’s positions and philosophies?
Look, I don’t mean to discount the site as propaganda. It’s well thought out and clearly a collection of editorials/opinions that does not try to market itself as hard news. But it doesn’t seem to be living up to its stated purpose as a “premier source of nonpartisan analysis and commentary about politics, society and culture in Taiwan and the region.” Biased media can still be very good, and Thinking Taiwan has some insightful analysis, particularly in cross-strait relations and on China’s policies. That doesn’t change, however, that it is an offshoot of the DPP.
Just out of curiosity, what are the good things that could be written about the KMT, say in the last year? Two years? Historically?
It may just be that with a president who has had approval ratings in the dirt for the last few years and a new candidate polling at 16% (who by all accounts is certifiably dumb), there isn’t much to say?
I just read the article referenced and it didn’t seem biased to me. I had a look at all of the top articles on the site and what I get is a strong pro-democracy theme, but I can see how that might be misconstrued as anti-KMT. 
The other thing, in relation to the Soong vote, is the overseas Taiwanese. It’s long been known that many of the old guard KMT fly to Taiwan just to vote. I don’t think Soong or Hung will inspire them to do that, so that might just balance out the ones who fear a KMT last place finish (I think that is what the KMT needs to become viable again-they won’t reform without it).
Cooperations, I have no love for the KMT. There may not be much positive to say about them, but if there literally were nothing at all good done by KMT lawmakers, local politicians, or officials there would be massive street protests not just from students but from everyday citizens. I know it’s not fair to ask a DPP-funded paper to write good things about the KMT, but that’s exactly my point.
The worse thing though is that it’s so non-critical of the DPP. No matter how much someone may dislike the KMT (understandably), the DPP is also a political party, and therefore it also has its dregs. It is no more perfect than the Democrats or Republicans in the US, and there is plenty bad to say about them. The closest I’ve seen to a rebuke of the DPP in Thinking Taiwan was what they wrote about Lai Ching-te refusing to do his job: “Whether Lai’s decision was warranted or not is debatable.”
Meanwhile, when referring to Eric Chu, who is well-regarded within his own party, the words used include “China’s dominance over Chu.” A description of Tsai in an article not really even about her: “her very fiber emits nuance and well-modulated statecraft.”
It’s good writing. They have good arguments. But just realize that they will avoid portraying their party of choice in a negative light. Fair and balanced, it is not.
[quote=“Cooperations”]
I just read the article referenced and it didn’t seem biased to me. I had a look at all of the top articles on the site and what I get is a strong pro-democracy theme, but I can see how that might be misconstrued as anti-KMT. 
[/quote]
Yes that’s the problem.
The solution would be a few articles advising Taiwan to adopt Neopatrimonialism and Autocracy, and another few articles about the decline of the American Empire and the inevitability of the Chinese dreams, how China ruled the world in 1543…
[quote=“Hokwongwei”]Ignoring that it’s fully funded by Tsai Ing-wen’s think tank, when’s the last article that was critical of the DPP or said anything good about the KMT? Are there any articles that don’t implicitly espouse the DPP’s positions and philosophies?
Look, I don’t mean to discount the site as propaganda. It’s well thought out and clearly a collection of editorials/opinions that does not try to market itself as hard news. But it doesn’t seem to be living up to its stated purpose as a “premier source of nonpartisan analysis and commentary about politics, society and culture in Taiwan and the region.” Biased media can still be very good, and Thinking Taiwan has some insightful analysis, particularly in cross-strait relations and on China’s policies. That doesn’t change, however, that it is an offshoot of the DPP.[/quote]
Directionally, I agree with Hok. Even as a pro-unification person, I like Thinking Taiwan and its editorials. Knowing that it is affiliated with TIW and thus reflects to some extent her views and the DPP’s has never bothered me; in fact I respect that they are open about their potential biases. In a similar vein, I am comfortable with WantChinaTimes editorials because they are also clear about their biases and Tsai Engmeng has even spoken about how he wanted WCT to present unification/China-friendly news and views.
Regarding TT’s claim to be “nonpartisan”, I imagine that the word is kind of a “term of art” for think tanks meaning that the group isn’t formally affiliated with a political party on an organizational basis, and it doesn’t solely advocate for views simply because such views are those of a particular party. The American Enterprise Institute and the Center for American Progress both claim to be “nonpartisan” as well although their outlooks tend to match those of many Republicans and Democrats respectively.
That’s just the author’s perception and it’s not at all an exaggeration. Another author (not on Thinking-Taiwan) once described Tsai as “wonky.” It’s just an observation about the personality of a particular person. It doesn’t mean or make the point of view biased.
If I write about Hung I’d describe her as a fear-mongering fanatic who thinks too highly of her archaic oratory. Does that mean I’m biased? No. I didn’t pick her as the candidate. Who’s to blame?
Correction: No one ever described Tsai as wonky. TIME described her as a policy wonk, which UDN in all its propagandist brilliance decided to translate as “靠不住，不可靠.”
From context, it’s painfully obvious that UDN is viewing the world through blue-colored glasses. “… gained a reputation for being wonky—the type who likes to debate protectionism over early-morning sips of black coffee or oolong tea.” This is praise, not criticism. All of my friends in translation circles were up in arms at this brazen display of partisanism and misinformation on UDN’s part.