President Tsai?


#1

I received a message of concern from my father. He said something like “I’m worried about news about Taiwan and China”, and I had no clue what was going on. Then I called him and he told me that Taiwan’s president was asking for international help after China told its troops to get ready. Well, apparently the war hasn’t started yet (phew :P) but Tsai did say something:

https://www.ft.com/content/5fbabb8c-10b1-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen has made a fresh call for international support in the face of aggressive signals from China. Ms Tsai, in a rare briefing with foreign media, said given the “worst-case scenario of China using force”, Taiwan was speeding up development of its military and signalled hope for more foreign assistance. “We are working hard to do everything to help ourselves to improve our defence capabilities but at the same time we still hope other countries that attach great importance to democracy and value Taiwan will be able to work together with us,” Ms Tsai said. The call came after Xi Jinping, reiterated the Chinese Communist party’s long-term aim of unification with Taiwan. Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its territory, stopped official communication with Taipei after Ms Tsai and the pro self-rule Democratic Progressive party took office in 2016. It has since ramped-up pressure on Taiwan via military activity in Taiwan-controlled territory as well diplomatic and economic measures. Analysts say that with the power to rule China for life, Mr Xi could be considering making the eventual unification of China and Taiwan a hallmark of his presidency with a more nationalist approach. Ms Tsai’s government has sought to build up Taiwan’s defence industry but military experts said internationally made weapons and technology were still needed, although such sales faced opposition from Beijing. China in September protested against a $330m US arms sale to Taiwan, saying it would damage US-China relations. Beijing has worked to block other countries from selling weapons and defence systems to Taiwan. China has used political pressure “to compromise the transfer of technology or sale of such sensitive technology to Taiwan, either from the European community or from other countries,” said Andrew Yang, a former Taiwan defence minister. Ms Tsai warned of a rise in disinformation campaigns — which have allegedly been linked to China — and urged greater co-operation among democracies in response to the threats posed by Beijing. “If the international community does not step in and help Taiwan now, when the next country suffers the same thing then who is going to speak up for them?”, she said. Despite the US under president Donald Trump showing greater support for Taiwan, experts expect China to increase pressure on Taipei. Elizabeth Freund Larus, a Taiwan expert at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia, said China would probably seek to capitalise on a series of DPP losses in local elections in November to sow discontent among Taiwanese and boost support for the China-friendly opposition party, the Kuomintang, ahead of the 2020 presidential election. “China’s leaders are like sharks in the water: they smell blood,” she said.


#2

President Xi said on Wednesday that China reserves the right to use force to bring Taiwan under its control but will strive to achieve peaceful “reunification” with the island.

In response, Tsai has said the island would not accept a “one country, two systems” political arrangement with China, while stressing all cross-Strait negotiations needed to be carried out on a government-to-government basis.


#3

Status quo, changing real estate scheme or should we be buying plane tickets for real?

Honest question


#4

Not yet.


#5

I would watch how much money is transferred out of Taiwan. The money always leaves first.


#6

Tempest in a pearl milk tea cup.


#7

It’s always status quo until it suddenly isn’t.
In today’s world who knows.

JD is right on, smart money will have a heads up


#8

China attacking Taiwan will signal world war three for sure

There will be no smart money because there will be worldwide upheaval

It’s a game changer for all of us

The USA can not win a non nuclear war with China

China sinks an US aircraft carrier shanghai and Beijing will be nuked before China sends up its birds to attack DC and SF and NYC

Ww3 the end game would be upon us all


#9

I think it can… Imagine , for a moment, that Vietnam, Japan and probably more Allies joined in .IF Russia stayed neutral, then both Militarily and Economically , China could not sustain warfare for long , at that level. The Chinese Stock Market, Banks and Trade , would be decimated rapidly.
That may be the case , if things are done suddenly ( like a ship being sunk or invasion ) but I suspect China will try to gradually choke the Taiwan economy and try to get a more welcoming KMT back in power first.
Pooh would like to survive any confrontation. Nukes would mean that would be impossible in the end. Just my thoughts.
At the moment , China can’t even manage it’s pig population.


#10

What, beside your opinion, do you have to back any of this up?

Why? No one cares much about Taiwan. The UK, Germany, Russia, India, France get next to nothing from Taiwan these days. I highly doubt they would go to war over a regional issue half a world away.

How does China attacking Taiwan upset the world? Is Taiwan exporting something vital to the world that I don’t know about?

A World War won’t necessarily be nuclear. And I beg to differ. The US is a superpower, and it can crush resistance anywhere, in multiple locations, at once, worldwide. China’s Navy can’t carry many troops very far, so any battle will take place in and around China. The Iraqi army had a decade or more of war hardened troops and the US mowed through them. A million Chinese only sons of only sons? :doh:

Read this first: China has a long way to go before they take a shot at the title:

No. Just no, in each part of what you wrote. China would never put its own neck on the chopping block firstly by attempting to sink a carrier. And even if they tried, we have 10 of them and 14 nuclear submarines. Secondly, why would the US destroy the cultural and economic centers of China that they would need to stabilize and rebuild the country after their ass-kicking? Lastly, the idea that China would risk nuking the only viable market that can support their growing needs is ludicrous. Without the US buying Chinese crap, China implodes. A little Trumpian slap in the face trade spat with China has resulted in trillions being lost in their stock market, and tens of billions of dollars being invested overseas monthly in, bumbumbah, US markets.

China would be better off finishing its port in Pakistan, building its supply and trade road back to its East, completing its port and airport steppingstone trade and oil route to Africa and the Middle East, than going after Taiwan, or anyone else in the South China Sea for that matter.


#11

I respectfully disagree. This little looksee into China’s clampdown on the Uyghurs suggests that they are meshing surveillance technologies, Han-based re-education, and domestic social control very well. I mean it’s absolutely horrific and literally Orwellian, but that don’t mean it ain’t working. Case in point: Tibet. 50 years later, I don’t hear a thing about Tibetan uprisings, threats to central rule, etc.


#12

ONe hopes you are right. And I only have my opinion which is worth about 2 cents at todays smart money rates.

But WW1 started with an assassination and WW2 started with the Hitler invading nearby countries and the US got involved after Japan bombed Pearl Harbor. China bombing Taiwan will unsettle all nearby countries and WW3 is very likely to start soon after.

But I have no hot lines to world leaders so what the heck do I know?


#13

The first part, for sure. But unnerving Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, The Philippines, and Indonesia might actually embolden them to start hitting China’s fishing and military boats in the South China Sea. Once THAT happens, safe passage for Chinese oil is gone and then they’re screwed. Right now, China is a chicken with a ten foot neck.


#14

Stating that China is still going to take taiwan is business as usual for pooh. Good on tsai for speaking up though, seems to have created more of a backlash than usual. And yea the chinese govt basically do have their people under control and compliant but how far are they from snapping? Could happen any time


#15

Aside from India, odd choice of countries. It’s the US allies: Japan, Australia, and maybe Korea and India.


#16

Calm down everyone . . .


#17

In practice, the one in Taipei can never regain control of the mainland, but it claims to be the legitimate government of China, not of Taiwan.

That ended in like 1990.


#18

Well, I was piggybacking on 525’s WW3 thing. You need the big boys for that. I mentioned them, save Oz in the following post. :+1:


#19

What are China’s vulnerabilities?


#20

You will be surprised to learn how much Taiwan is integrated in global supply chain. The effects will be felt worldwide. Add to that the effects on regional transport and damages on Chinese output and it matters to everyone.
Also after Taiwan it will be Japan and India time, they won’t just ignore military unification.