President Tsai?


#21

Economy. One thing a lot of people ignore is that Chinese economy is most vulnerable right now. If it tanks now it will fall into the middle income trap and won’t be able to recover for at least a few decades.


#22

Yep, China can blow up TSMC’s fabs in Taiwan and whole tech chain will grind to a halt for months, if not more.


#23

Again I think we are forgetting the nukes and the fact China has ICBM technology. If even one gets through its game over. Yes for them too but also for whoever they fire on.

Which is why I’ve always said the USA won’t risk war with a nuclear nation over Taiwan. See the land grab Russia did with Ukraine as a field test.
Plus if I were putin I’d side with China as it’s the only friend they have these days.

Not so simple as yee haw we have the largest military to kick ass like pushovers such as Iraq


#24

Except they don’t have big enough fabs in China and would destroy their own tech industry too.

Samsung would be the only one profiting from that situation.


#25

Yeah, that’s my take on the whole “trade war.” Testing the fences.

I never said it was a yee ha thing. US military dominance is a fact. Our cyber warfare stuff is not to shabby either, remember shutting down North Korea a while ago? Another test. What I’m saying is that presently China is in no position to do more than saber rattle. Nukes are more of a political chess piece that gets one a seat at the table. If they start making threats with nukes, things might change though.


#26

Could you expand on that? :+1:


#27

Taiwan is an important step in many exports from China to EU & US.
Things get made in China and assembled here. The import tax to is lowered by this step dramatically and many products from China would not be able to compete on EU & US markets without it.


#28

I wasn’t aiming the reply directly at you. :slight_smile:
Just my general two cents.

Conventionally yes USA can mop the floor with anyone. That’s why nations become nuclear armed to level the playing field. You don’t stockpile stuff if you never intend to use it. This is what keeps these big powers in control these days.


#29

Really? I mean, the government is EVERYTHING, they are doing fairly good as a country and economy (for the moment), people are seeing development, and although there are different voices complaining in China, it’s still true that they were educated in US vs THEY, which means that the average Chinese guy won’t complain much publicly because that would be to side by the others, the evil Westerners. I don’t think that Chinese are in general inclined to complain and revolt against their government because that would mean to be somehow against their own country, and also they probably think their Chinese democracy is normal or better than what is outside.

But then again what the fuck do I know, there might be some other internal factors, tensions, social conflicts, etc… going on, of which I’m not aware at all TBH.


#30

Their toxic air, water and food.


#31

True, however, “use” is the key term. Nukes get you recognition.

Now, PLACING nukes in countries that do not have them is a very different story. Russian nukes in Cuba for example. Let’s hope we never get there again.


#32

In large part, I agree with you.

China’s internal stability relies on their economy not slowing down substantially. From what I can tell, US foreign policy is to slow it down, hopefully, not to the breaking point, but to the slowyerroll point.


#33

With the way things are now with the economy in Taiwan for the average Taiwanese, they would lay their arms down at their feet and bow down to their new overlords just to have a piece of the prosperity pie China has been enjoying this past decade. Many Taiwanese I know have no vision for a prosperous Taiwan in the coming decades. They only see Taiwan becoming weaker and poorer. They really have lost hope and lost the will to make Taiwan anything worth fighting for.

All of the Taiwanese I know have said that they don’t want to be a part of China, they want to remain Taiwanese. But, if China forced a military confrontation, they would rather capitulate and sacrifice their internet freedoms for peace and stability and a future for their kids. I have not met one Taiwanese who said they would stand and fight.

The US will not fight China unless China directly attacked them. At most, sanctions would be put in place to slap China’s hand and that is about it.

I fear it is just a matter of time (as within a decade) for Taiwan to be assimilated into the PRC or the PRC to become so unstable they leave Taiwan alone for a few more decades.


#34

It would cause a major disruption to t/e SEAsian economy as well. That was one of purposes of Lee’s original southbound policies.


#35

The US economy slows if the Chinese one does. Heck it’s happening now.


#36

Shouldn’t the title of this thread read President Tsai???


#37

Done.


#38

I agree with everything you said, except for the part about sacrificing internet freedoms. In Hong Kong, you can go to any website you want. Of course, you may be referring to something else in terms of internet freedom.


#39

When I talked to them about losing freedoms under PRC rule, they seemed to only be worried about censorship on the internet and losing access to social media. The PRC is now cracking down hard on VPN users, slapping them with fines that are the same level as fines for drug use. As far as other freedoms…freedom of speech, etc. the Taiwanese I talked to didn’t really blink.


#40

If that’s the only worry, then they have little to worry about. Full access to any site from HK without having to use VPN. Unless if people think Taiwan will enjoy much less freedom than HK/Macau SAR which is very unlikely. But I’m surprised that’s the main/only worry. There are many things to worry about under a Taiwan SAR scenario, but losing access to internet isn’t one of them.