If he had other ideas, he probably would have mentioned them.
Anyways, I specifically commented on the plebiscite idea, did you have any thoughts on that?
Everything else I have read lately has been: Russia shit the bed so far, Ukraine has an arsenal in the pipeline, this war is over. But even if Ukraine, pushes Russia out of all annexed territory, do you think that will be the end of this?
If he’s writing for soldiers, that might not be a bad thing. Did you take a look at his works on the Wikipedia link?
I’m not a well published military historian whose books are taught at military academies and translated into several languages, but it does seem reasonable that if neither side is ready to negotiate, just staring at each other across a line of control doesn’t end the war.
What are Putin’s other options here? I’m interested to read about it, if anyone has anything worth sharing
We seem far, far removed from anything like that at present.
I don’t subscribe to those points of view, but I don’t rule them out either. War follows its own logic. Something is going to have to break at this point. Whatever happens, I’m pretty sure it won’t be ending because of a strategy the Russians pick up in Unherd (and I like Unherd!) We can safely assume they have the firmest available grasp on their actual capabilities and the understanding that military defeating Ukraine through any available avenue is their best hope of favorably ending the war.
He could have ordered a retreat — a politically feasible choice since low-level warfare had been underway for years and the entire operation could have been passed off as an exercise in intimidation. Alternatively, he could have declared war, mobilised the Russian Armed forces and invaded Ukraine in earnest.
Yeah, shit or get off the pot, Putin! Except now is too late to get off, he’s been in there for a while and people will wonder what he’s been doing it in there
I wonder about this. A lot of reports make the Russian military bureaucracy sound like total chaos and dysfunction, and that … could be true? It’s also unclear to me what Putin actually expects to achieve.
I agree he probably isn’t reading Unherd for tips, and I’m also not qualified to say whether that guy’s suggestions are realistic, but I do like that the writer is attempting an analysis based on what could actually be done and how it could lead to an end to the war, rather than cheerleading and brinksmanship.
It’s a bureaucracy, and it’s always been a highly authoritarian top down one, so you pretty much expect that. Still, they can certainly conceive of broad strategic plans. All they need to know is that Putin wants to defeat Ukraine. I don’t know, maybe it’s just me but it seems very silly to me.
I’d be interested in some kind of suggestion about diplomatic approaches. I just can’t see what this kind of reasoning can possibly hope to accomplish or contribute to resolving the situation.
I continue to believe that the US is essentially vetoing diplomacy. If they aren’t, then opening some direct lines of communication would be a great start.
What am I missing? Of course forcing Ukraine to the table with a successful invasion will probably lead to some kind of diplomacy. Should we like, wave Russia in or something?
They at least pretended to. We’ll never know whether they were serious, thanks to [puts on tinfoil hat] Boris Johnson. But we don’t need to get into that again.
And yes, what @TT said. If we believe – as we should – that this war must eventually end in some kind of diplomacy, then surely it’s worth talking about how that might happen.
There is precedent for convincing Russians that the cost of occupying a neighboring country is too high. That won’t happen though as long as you fight their kind of war.
