Russia invades Ukraine: General Discussion 2023

Interesting:
Chris Busby on how there seems to have been a massive radiation leak from an arms dump explosion in Khmelnytsky, Ukraine on Sunday 14th May. He also discusses why it could have produced the large reported gamma radiation spike and radiation plume over Poland and why NATO and Russia are both covering it up out of embarrassment.

Apparently, the Russians blew the shit out of all but one of the places that held stockpiles of weapons.

Interesting.
When out and about, I hear more normies complaining about this proxy war. They are getting sick of it.

so your not normal?

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Perhaps depleted uranium shells US/NATO were so happy to hand over to Ukies or small tactical nukes

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Why is it interesting?

Who are “normies”?

Normies are the new sheeple, as opposed to the free thinking lone wolves

Edit: I googled the opposite of normie and maverick came up. It fits

palin-maverick

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There is an Ukrainian article dating to 2016 that complains about storage of soviet era rockets and explosives at that facility. Some components of this old tech were radioactive.
Dismantling of those cost money and storing them was the cheaper option. This was seen as dangerous.
It was not a secret facility, easily seen from above. Russia of course spins the explosion as big blow to a huge NATO weapons cache, while technically Russia just blew up their own soviet era stuff.

This sounds more plausible than NATO giving nukes to Ukraine.

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I posted some satellite images from 2010 of the site, in the thread above when it first came up, all that information seams to have just been pushed to one side.


There is a new Google maps review of the Russian border checkpoint.

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As they care about the welfare of Ukrainians and those in fellow NATO member neighbouring countries so much, the UK government has already admitted to sending Depleted Uranium shells to Ukraine.

They’re silent on it because it’s horseshit propaganda :smiley:

Noticing a pattern :wink:

Beautiful

The way I see it, they’ve got two options:

  1. Go for the blitzkrieg, try to take the island as quick as possible. This means combined arms invasion which will be interesting to see the Chinese attempt to execute, given they’ve never really had a proper war in the modern era in which to test their combined offensives. Not to mention D-Day 2 Electric Boogaloo Bigger and Better edition style landing craft necessity. The hope here being that they can render the government defunct swiftly enough to make it a fait accompli and finish the deal. Unlikely at best; even in the case of the U.S. strategic bombing in say, Kuwait, Iraq, and Operation Allied Force targets, they could maybe disorient the forces and would certainly put on some pressure early on in the war, but realistically, much like then, you can only take out so much leadership and infrastructure before it either hurts you or isn’t worth it, at whcih point you switch to tactical or direct bombing of forces or traditional strategic bombing in going after citizens, bombing the morale out. Taking out infrastructure and leadership only temporarily delays the response. Which could be theoretically useful again, if they could move fast enough, but moving through cities will just be slow. Armor and arty will probably be in shortage too, not to mention difficult to transport if they end up hitting the infrastructure too much.
  2. they just duke it out with the US and Taiwan, try to starve the island out to start and then hit it with the typical WW2 era strategic bombing that modern incompetent dictators love so much. Level a few cities, destroy some families, all in a days work, and no closer to a real victory. Just more fierce resistance from the Taiwanese. I could see the Chinese missiles being a problem for ending a blockade of the Island though, although I think the blockade itself will prove an equally big problem for them. Ultimately I think the hope would be that they could reduce American will to fight by showing some destruction and lives lost, destroy as much Taiwanese materiel as possible, and then move in for the coup de grace, but who knows.
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The blockade will be the US and allies blocking ships and supplies to China. I doubt China could block the east coast of Taiwan. Taiwan is increasing its production of anti ship missiles.
Landing ships are easy targets for those prepared. Imagine D Day but with anti ship missiles that have a range that can reach China. Bombers are not likely to fly anywhere near Taiwan which is why they launch cruise missiles. They too are slow and easily shot down. You don’t see Russian bombers flying anywhere near Ukraine for this reason

Getting harder to justify anything Russians have done in Ukraine and their constant failure to achieve their goals even for Russian propagandists.

Reverse demilitarization:

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One cake versus all normies? Unfair struggle :rofl:

Blockade seems to be most likely right now. From what I read anyway.

It makes a lot of sense, but they still have to be sure they can beat the US Navy in a shooting war.

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Once the US and China are engaged in a war, the whole world has changed anyway.

US will use its most severe financial weapons. No exports of Western tech or anything to China if you want to sell to the US. Nothing will be leaving Chinese ports. The whole global system and supply chains will break down.

Everyone is preocupied with TSMC but everything is going to be disrupted. The world will be in freefall.

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Sounds right, though if China can convincingly beat the US Navy, which they basically would have to to make this scheme work, that could change the entire global political and financial calculus. If that day does come it makes a lot of sense they would just use a blockade/air-naval war rather than trying to mount a cross-straits invasion.

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Only the US navy? Japan formally warned China any blockade of the Taiwan strait would see Japan get involved.

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