Here’s another rather convincing piece of evidence. Sumatra-Before and After
Here, click on this link and scroll down to table 40a. Regional Forecast for New Moon Period. The prediction for Taiwan is there. Between the time I posted my above post and now, Reg updated his site and it now includes the data from the quake in Japan on the 11th. One column has the prediction and another column has the “observed” data. His accuracy for the Japan quake is 74%.
Also, isn’t it generally true that when Japan gets a large earthquake Taiwan often follows?
I’m trying to find evidence for this. I found no stats but I found this.
[quote]The observation of ELF Schumann resonances in Nakatsugawa, Japan has suggested the presence of anomalous behavior in Schumann resonances (that is, the main point is the enhancement at the fourth (or the third) harmonic) at Nakatsugawa, and we have indicated that those anomalies in the Schumann resonances at Nakatsugawa are highly likely to be associated with the large earthquakes in Taiwan. [/quote] pakistanvoices.com/current_affai … arthquake/
Conversely, such a big quake in Japan is bound to have an effect on Taiwan. But to what extent?
I haven’t made my mind up about Ken Ring, but I have been following Reg for a good while and have used a skeptics approach to try to figure out how he is (or isn’t) finding his predictions. I’ve looked into how his success is measured to see if there are any anomalies or foul play regarding the publishing of results and also the rule of chance, but I can’t find anything. He seems as spot on as you can get with his predictions - if he’d only had a 25% success on his predictions, I’d still find it phenomenal.
Regarding the effect the Japan quake has on Taiwan, well, plate tectonics is a very complex area. It will effect Taiwan one way or another, either soon or way off in the future - and the effect could be positive as well as negative. What is clear is that we currently have a lot of global geological activity, with both volcanoes and quakes. We live in interesting times…
I’m curious, has this discussion resulted in any action to prepare for an earthquake? Personally, I am finally setting up an emergency kit (only taken 16 years of procrastination). Not sure how it helps but at least we’ll have food and water during typhoon days if there is no earthquake. But, are you taking kids out of school? Staying away from old concrete buildings and the highway?
The quakes along the pacific ring of fire actually affect the entire ring. Quakes in Chile for example resonate around this ring and affect ground movements by increasing plate activity. Releasing and increasing pressures at different spots. This also results in increased volcanic activity. Volcanoes have been going off in Indonesia recently and even in Japan I believe. TheJUly 17, 1994 Northridge quake in the USA (moment magnitude 6.7, the highest recorded in an urban area in North America) was followed rather quickly Jan 17, 1995 Kobe quake with a moment magnitude of 6.8 and that was followed in short order (by geological time) by the Sept 21 , 1999 Taiwan quake with a moment magnitude of 7.6 !
Taiwan is an especially active island geologically as it is a very young island by geo standards. It is also the confluence of several tectonic plates, with some unique properties. The ones capable of producing the greatest quakes, subduction plates are also present in Taiwan!
doubleyoudigital.nl/document … Taiwan.pdf
Geologically speaking Taiwan is very volatile. However if you take a persons life in Taiwan over the course of 70 years say, the geological dangers to his/her life are far outweighed by those presented by traffic and sickness. It is important for Taiwan to have many minor quakes because this relieves the huge stresses accumulating with every second along taiwan’s many known (and worse unknown) fault lines.
Taipei also has the unwitting bad fortune to be both sitting on a huge deposit of sediment and also close proximity to Tatun volcanoes (formerly thought to be extinct but now discovered to be “active” with its last eruptions perhaps within 20,000 years instead of several hundred thousand years as previously
thought. There is a known magma chamber under the Tatun Volcano group. What is less known is how big is this chamber and how close to the surface it is. There are active fumeroles in that area as everyone who lives in Taipei knows.
volcanism.wordpress.com/2009/11/ … t-or-what/
So Taipei residents face a potential (albeit small risk in a man’s lifetime) annihilation of its some six MILLION inhabitants in a major major eruption and added to that the sediment the city sits on can result in liquefaction during a major earth tremor.
And to make matters worse, much of Taipei city is not much above sea level .
heres some more “happy” thoughts for ya.
I would not say that is all over the web - looking at the first 10 links that come up: the first three are just from his site, one is for us (forumosa), one is from one of Dr. Reginald Roberts’ (Ph D) family member’s art site, and one is from a site called Planet X and 2012 Survivor’s Town Hall.
I would not say that is all over the web - looking at the first 10 links that come up: the first three are just from his site, one is for us (forumosa), one is from one of Dr. Reginald Roberts’ (Ph D) family member’s art site, and one is from a site called Planet X and 2012 Survivor’s Town Hall.[/quote]That’s just one search query. He’s not a celebrity, but his presence on the web is pretty good, in my opinion.
He would get more attention if the scientific community wasn’t so rigid and reluctant to grant credibility to ANY earthquake prediction. No methods of prediction were accredited yet. (There are many.) Instead, they dwell on false predictions. Typical scientists.[quote]The natural randomness of earthquakes and frequent activity in certain areas can be used to make “predictions” which may generate unwarranted credibility. These generally leave certain details unspecified, increasing the probability that the vague prediction criteria will be met, and ignore quakes that were not predicted en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_prediction [/quote]
[quote=“asiababy”]
So, if the South Island of NZ breaks in half between March 15 and March 25, I’ll believe the guy. Of course, I hope that doesn’t happen.[/quote]
Well, maybe you should hope he is right. No doubt the quake would be horrible to see, but if we could scientifically predict quakes, and the scientific community took it seriously, then that would be a great thing, and could save a great more lives in the long run. . .
Did he get his job back?
I found something significant. The prediction for Taiwan I posted links for earlier, on Table 40a, has been replaced with a different prediction. The problem with this is that the prediction is for March 9th but it was only added to the website on March 16th. Meanwhile, the prediction for March 15th I mentioned above has disappeared from the website. Mr. Reginald Roberts boasts/gloats a 100% accuracy on this particular prediction. It’s to be expected since he predicted it 7 days after it happened! 
I wasn’t sure if he was legit or not but such crafty predictions editing is enough for me to form an opinion.
Kudos to you for admitting this.
I also noticed, on a quick look through his website, that many of predictions have a fairly wide range of magnitudes. Many are something like 3-5 or 3-6 or similar magnitude ranges. If you go look at the earthquake list for Taiwan (http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V6e/index.htm), or a list for N America (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/region/N_America_eqs.php), you will see that there are TONS of small earthquakes in seismically active areas. I could predict M 4-5 earthquakes for a +/- 3 day timeframe for Taiwan with close to 100% accuracy. Because there are earthquake of that size every few days. Such a “prediction” is utterly meaningless.
Also - despite what people might think, science doesn’t involve these cabals of scientists trying to conspire against everyone who doesn’t agree with them. First, scientists are people too - do you really think that they don’t want to be able to prevent such catastrophes? Second, even if they were completely self-interested, a viable system of predicting earthquakes would be GREAT for scientists. Think of the grant money that would flow in, the publications that would come out of it, the amount of attention it would get. the reason that scientists don’t believe any of these earthquake “prediction” methods is because when you actually analyze them, they don’t work. Full stop.
I found something significant. The prediction for Taiwan I posted links for earlier, on Table 40a, has been replaced with a different prediction. The problem with this is that the prediction is for March 9th but it was only added to the website on March 16th. Meanwhile, the prediction for March 15th I mentioned above has disappeared from the website. Mr. Reginald Roberts boasts/gloats a 100% accuracy on this particular prediction. It’s to be expected since he predicted it 7 days after it happened!
I wasn’t sure if he was legit or not but such crafty predictions editing is enough for me to form an opinion.[/quote]
There was a quake in Taiwan on 3/15 though.
[Forumosa - Taiwan's largest and most active Taiwan-oriented global online community in English … 3#p1270043](Taiwan Earthquakes 2011 - #43 by bismarck
[quote=“bismarck”]
There was a quake in Taiwan on 3/15 though.
[forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopic.ph … 3#p1270043](Taiwan Earthquakes 2011
There were quakes bigger than M4 in Taiwan on 3/2, 3/5, 3/8, 3/9, 3/11, 3/15, and 3/16, And that’s just this month. There have been quakes bigger than M3 on 15 out of 16 days this month. It’s just about impossible NOT to get a 100% success rate predicting earthquakes of this magnitude in Taiwan.
I found something significant. The prediction for Taiwan I posted links for earlier, on Table 40a, has been replaced with a different prediction. The problem with this is that the prediction is for March 9th but it was only added to the website on March 16th. Meanwhile, the prediction for March 15th I mentioned above has disappeared from the website. Mr. Reginald Roberts boasts/gloats a 100% accuracy on this particular prediction. It’s to be expected since he predicted it 7 days after it happened!
I wasn’t sure if he was legit or not but such crafty predictions editing is enough for me to form an opinion.[/quote]
Was very surprised from the beginning to see you fall for this, because you are usually a voice of reason on here, and happy to see you found it out yourself. This was such an obvious question about a website making this kind of claim(is anyone watching to see whether data is posted or adjusted after the fact?), but I didn’t want to point this out until I had evidence, which unfortunately wasn’t forthcoming from any quick google searches on “scam” and Reg Roberts" – which was the first thing I typed out of my own interest after seeing your initial posts. Thanks for following up on this for us.
[quote=“zyzzx”][quote=“bismarck”]
There was a quake in Taiwan on 3/15 though.
[forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopic.ph … 3#p1270043](Taiwan Earthquakes 2011
There were quakes bigger than M4 in Taiwan on 3/2, 3/5, 3/8, 3/9, 3/11, 3/15, and 3/16, And that’s just this month. There have been quakes bigger than M3 on 15 out of 16 days this month. [color=#FF0000]It’s just about impossible NOT to get a 100% success rate predicting earthquakes of this magnitude in Taiwan.[/color][/quote]
Exactly. 
I found something significant. The prediction for Taiwan I posted links for earlier, on Table 40a, has been replaced with a different prediction. The problem with this is that the prediction is for March 9th but it was only added to the website on March 16th. Meanwhile, the prediction for March 15th I mentioned above has disappeared from the website. Mr. Reginald Roberts boasts/gloats a 100% accuracy on this particular prediction. It’s to be expected since he predicted it 7 days after it happened!
I wasn’t sure if he was legit or not but such crafty predictions editing is enough for me to form an opinion.[/quote]
Was very surprised from the beginning to see you fall for this, because you are usually a voice of reason on here, and happy to see you found it out yourself. This was such an obvious question about a website making this kind of claim(is anyone watching to see whether data is posted or adjusted after the fact?), but I didn’t want to point this out until I had evidence, which unfortunately wasn’t forthcoming from any quick google searches on “scam” and Reg Roberts" – which was the first thing I typed out of my own interest after seeing your initial posts. Thanks for following up on this for us.[/quote]
I was never sold on it, but I thought it had good chances of being credible. If you think about it, the scientific community will not easily endorse earthquake prediction methods. Predictions have to be VERY accurate to justify mass evacuations, shutting down public services, public unrest, etc, etc. So I thought maybe Reg’s predictions were just not accurate enough to gain media notoriety.
I wasn’t intentionally following up on Reg’s predictions. We felt a small jolt yesterday evening in Kaohsiung. I immediately wondered if perhaps it was the tail end of a larger jolt in the north of Taiwan. I found nothing online about the quake we’d just had. I also looked on Forumosa knowing that if the ground shook up north, someone would post about it. I concluded that it was just a small one and decided to look again on Reg’s site to see if he had predicted this one. Maybe I had missed something. That’s when I notice severe discrepancies.
It’s a bit funny for Mr. Roberts to get busted because a “real” earthquake shook my house halfway across the world from where he publishes his “predictions.” 
You should have looked in the [url=Taiwan Earthquakes 2011 - #46 by bismarck Earthquakes 2011[/url] thread.
But as we’ve already said, these 3-5 mag quakes happen almost everyday, most of which we don’t even feel. So predicting them isn’t exactly the height of fortunetelling.
Here’s a new one:
CWB Refutes May 11 Doomsday Prophecy
chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/nati … efutes.htm
Magnitude 14? 170m tsunami? And people are buying this?