[quote=“Interlocutor”]Thanks for the interesting analysis Jive Turkey. One question:
Jive Turkey wrote:
Yet I have heard of the theory of Taiwan bombing the Three Gorges Dam. In an article titled"China to attack Taipei in 2006? Official, expert agree strike is coming" it states:
[quote]The U.S. Defense Department warned in a report last month that China was developing “credible military options” to prevent Taiwan from achieving independence, including tools to discourage the United States from coming to the island’s aid in a conflict with the mainland.
Separately, the defense ministry issued a statement denying a U.S. report suggesting Taiwan could repel a Chinese attack by bombing China’s Three Gorges Dam. [/quote]
If it is officially denied that means it is true. What capabilities do you know of that Taiwan has for bombing the Three Gorges Dam?[/quote]
You know, I pride myself on having a sick and twisted mind, but this had not occurred even to me. Actually, it is a brilliant military strategy (ethics COMPLETELY put aside).
How about their missile sites across the strait in the Fujian Province? Wondering if we’re going to target these as well, since we should know most of it’s locations. They will most likely change the locations before the war, but wouldn’t that give away it’s intentions?
If they were to prepare a all out attack on us, they will have to move lots of things to make it pretty easy for our intelligence to detect, I would think. Thus gives us more time to respond, including the US.
Seriously, though, there are now ads out for Chinese linguists to work in Washington on contract for two or three month periods. This is something I haven’t seen before, and it might support some of what y’all are saying, that there are indications of an attack or planning for same. The other scary thing is that the rates they are offering are almost a living wage, and that is very uncommon for government translation work. Something could well be afoot.
On that subject, are there no jets in preparedness on bases in South Korea or Japan or even Guam, all a short flight away? .[/quote]
Just because we said we need a month doesn’t make it so. The US would hardly desire to give Taiwan a blank check for a calvary charge. It seems clear to me there are things we can do well before then.
There is an element that doesn’t seem often mentioned in all these China strikes Taiwan scenarios, particularly the surprise attack scenarios. That is, if the Chinese start raining down missiles on Taipei they will kill a lot of Taiwanese and cause a lot of damage but at the same time they will kill a lot of foreigners and much of that damage will be to foreign corporate interests. Those first foreign casualties would surely be cause for a declaration of war on China, perhaps by a coalition (already secretly in place?) of the U.S, Australia, New Zealand, allies of which there would be the mostly likely casualties. Koizumi might even persuade pacifist Japan to join in, having already cracked the door with their Self-Defense Forces troops in Iraq.
And what of the military-industrial complex, of which Microsoft must now be considered part of? Will the computer industry sit by while the largest chip producer on earth is attacked, severely disrupting and threatening their business? I think not. If the Chinese staged a surprise attack (and how much of a surprise could it really be?) I think a lot of international pressure and cooperation could end it quickly, putting China back in the box most nations want it in.
The only scenario I see such a surprise attack really working is if China were to do it in cahoots with North Korea, the nation they are the patron of. If North Korea created a disturbance (i.e. like the lobbing of missiles over Japan they did a few years ago) and the U.S. army is distracted in that region and perhaps still in Iraq, it might create a window of opportunity for China to stage a surprise attack. Their pre-arranged agreement could call for a whole of lot foreign aid to North Korea after the dust settles as a reward.
There is discussion of a blockade but would China want to risk that? Again, this would disrupt commerce and risk a naval confrontation with the U.S.
The new Chinese leadership have put a lot of effort into propping up their reputation as a world player, even getting more involved in diplomacy outside of their region. An attack on Taiwan would blow a lot of progress and plans. However, the old guard still zealously pursues Taiwan with obsession. As long as Jiang Zemin holds the military in his pocket there is cause for worry. If Taiwan can sit tight for a few years it is more likely to see much of the old guard die off and further regime changes and perhaps even see the PRC implode. But with Tiananmen Square (as well as the Falun Fong crackdown) as an example of the PRC’s irrational response to any threat to them, it is always a concern.
I’d love to share such optimism, but I’m not so sure a bunch of old men dying off is going to cause that much change. The younger generation of China seem as aggressively nationalistic as their elders. Repudiation of Maoist communism seems to be where the generation gap lies; those raised in the post-Deng era embrace capitalism, the old guard don’t. Now that Marxist-Leninism has imploded, the PRC relies on Chinese national pride as a source of legitimacy, a cause to rally the People around. So if anything, I suspect the next few years will see the pressure worsen, as Chinese are propagandized into even more strident nationalists than they are now.
Obviously part of the PRC’s military strategy, absent the ability to move large numbers of troops quickly, will be to use their 500 or so missiles to bomb Taiwan (either into submission or to the point where the ability to defend is whiped out). Presumably, as well as military targets there’s be governmental targets in downtown Taipei. Even if there weren’t, there are loads of military bases close to cities, and (correct me if I’m wrong), China’s missiles are pretty similar to the old Scuds, that is to say, not very accurate. Obviously there’s be huge numbers of Taiwanese civilian casualties.
Now people have repeatedly said stuff like “the Taiwanese wouldn’t put up a fight”. Personally, I think that’s probably bullshit, and the more civilian casualties, the more people are going to be pissed off (“you bastards killed half my family”) and willing to resist.
As an aside, I have to wonder whether the common belief that the Taiwanese would just surrender isn’t partially a PRC stategy to make people think Taiwan may as well just give up.
Yes, as a result of the old guard’s propaganda. One hopes the new leadership will tone it down when it comes their turn after the funerals of the remaining old guard.
This element also is worrying in that this would be their strategy to attack Taiwan if a distraction is needed from say an economic meltdown (unlikely? Maybe not so.) or an uprising from the vast majority of poor, underfed peasants who have been cheated out of their “iron rice bowls”.
I suspect there is a lot of leftover stewing resentment from the Cultural Revolution (never mind the Great Leap Forward) that exists in the middle-aged that would work against nationalism. The Boxer Rebellion is starting to be a long, long time ago. And if the younger generation ever gets a real education of the PRC’s effect on the people of China, it might change their minds too, especially if the economic miracle collapses. I mean, how long can they keep the Internet in a box in that vast country?
Or they might think western interpretation of their situation is incorrect and make that their focus of learning the more refined English language propaganda.
From what I’ve seen in the Mainland there are those that whine about the good old days of the iron rice bowl and those that pass them by embracing free trade.
As for Taiwan putting up a fight. I wonder…The Dutch, The Japanese, The KMT…A President that dodge the draft and whose military advisor wanted to quit right after his re-election…A 3 year old USA arms package still unpaid for with no delivery date…An unwavering ally that just told us don’t provoke the PRC and if we do he’ll show up 2 weeks late to the party…
What’s your point ac (assuming you have one, for a change)? Are you suggesting that the Taiwanese didn’t fight against the Dutch, the Japanese or the KMT (you left out the Qing dynasty)?
I notice the conspicuous absence of Canada from your list. But yeah, I’m sure the Canadians don’t care about their “English teachers” here, and besides, Canada doesn’t have a military to send.
The missiles are for airbases and radar sites. They won’t be targetting any urban targets with them. The first step for them will be to try to hit the airbases hard, commit acts of sabotage and assassinate government types. If they can take out the airbases, then they’ll have air superiority by default. If the US hasn’t gotten involved by that time, the Taiwanese would probably surrender because what would come next is a full on invasion. With no air cover, the ROC military would be pretty well fucked.
No, their missiles are better than scuds. With a scud, you would aim at a city, or at best a certain quarter of a city. With the DF-11s and especially the DF-15s, the accuracy is such that you could aim for a certain quarter of a city and certain blocks. The guidance on them is supposed to be as good as can be had without using GPS. It has been estimated that it would take at least 10 perfect hits from these missiles to take out an ROC airbase. They’d need to hit the runway (or runways; some airbases have up to three runways) dead center two or three times, hit the aprons (which would be used as runways after the main runway is hit) a couple of times and hit the fuel bunkers and munitions stores. The DF-15 impacts at about mach 6, so it would dig a huge fucking crater in the runway. They keep big piles of sand and gravel at the airbases in case they have to do quick runway repair, but there’s no way they could do more than fill a couple of craters.
That’s not to say that they would have much luck taking out airbases. If it takes ten good hits, then it may take as many as 50 or 60 missiles to get those ten good hits. The ROCAF has nine airbases and five civilian airports that normally handle jets. Then there are a few civilian airports that are now only used for prop-driven planes but could take fighter jets. Some of these civilian airports are quite close to airbases. This means that if the PRC wants to put down the ROCAF completely, they’d need to take out up to 20 airbases/airports. You do the math. They’d have to get pretty lucky to be able to do it.
[quote=“Jive Turkey”]
The missiles are for airbases and radar sites. They won’t be targetting any urban targets with them. … They’d have to get pretty lucky to be able to do it.[/quote]
Well said. this is the real threat posed by the missles. in a full scale invasion scenario they would be an awesome weapon. however they wouldn’t do it by themselves and defenses do exist.
the other threat is the implied one. they do china good service here as an aid to their posturing. however–bottom line: unless taiwan well and truly declares independence, or unforseeable domestic upheaval skews the scales, it will likely never be an intelligent decision for China to exercise the military option.
unintelligent decisions can be taken, but unintelligent people do not maintain control over large nations for long periods of time.
[quote=“ac_dropout”]And don’t forget our high tech ROC highway/runways.
Then need like a thousand missles. Whew, they only have 500. So we’d be like at 50% capacity.[/quote]
What’s up with this “we” shit? Everybody knows where your true loyalty lies. Stop pretending to be an American (you may have the passport, but in your heart and soul you’re still a Chinese boy) and you don’t give a toss about Taiwan. So enough of this “we” this and “we” that. You are THEM.
I’m on the side of peaceful eventual reunification. You must be the evil “them” my mother warned me about.
I admit my own cultural and biological heritage sure does make “we” quite a large population, much larger than most conservatives are willing to admit. But then globalization sure is bitch, ain’t it.
Interesting information about the missiles Jive Turkey. Just how accurate are they though. Even the US’s state of the art missiles aren’t all that accurate are they. I really am curious to know. How often do they miss, and when they do, how much do they miss by. Are Taiwan’s air bases really that far from the cities? Wouldn’t they be aiming for Songshan airport too? I’m guessing that there would still be a large number fo civilian casualties.
Last month they did practice takeoffs from highways. How feasible is it to get the jets to the highways in reasonable time?
Bu Lai En wrote:
Agreed. I still stand by my theory that with so many foreigners from varied countries here (Canada included, sorry for the oversight) casualties of foreigners would happen almost immediately, causing outrage and retaliation, since that would be seen as good cause for such. Particularly with a surprise attack with no warning for foreigners to vacate the island.
Ms. Voice of Reason arrives on the scene 
Something could well be afoot.