[quote]Quote:
They’d need to hit the runway (or runways; some airbases have up to three runways) dead center two or three times, hit the aprons (which would be used as runways after the main runway is hit) a couple of times…
Last month they did practice takeoffs from highways. How feasible is it to get the jets to the highways in reasonable time?
[/quote]
Well, I guess the important thing here is to consider two scenarios.
Why would you bomb all the aribases?
So that the planes won’t have anywhere to take off and land.
So that you destroy the entire airforce on the ground, which is much easier than in the air (what happened to Egypt in the 6-day war right?).
So, assuming for a moment that the jets could use highways to land, and even to refuel (??? but possible), the question becomes, what would the warning of a missile attack be. and is that long enough for the air force to get most of its planes in the air? Really, I have no idea, but I’m guesing (guessing again), that it may be harder than a non-military person like myself thinks to get planes piloted and up in the sky in a hurry.
No, even the 3rd generation patriots that Taiwan is planning to buy would not be much protection against ballistic missiles. They failed in the gulf war and the upgraded versions would probably only succeed in taking out a few ballistic missiles. Patriots were initially designed for anti-aircraft and anti-cruise missile purposes. The 3rd generation Patriots are supposed to be a little better at dealing with ballistic missiles, but I don’t really believe it. It requires a completely different kind of system to effectively deal with ballistic missiles. The only country that has had any luck with developing such a system is Israel, but it is not cost effective. The intercepter itself is the size of an intermediate range ballistic missile, not something the size of a Patriot-like SAM.
Of course one benefit of having the Patriots around is that they are one more target that the PRC will have to hit with ballistic missiles. They are stationed quite apart from other targets. Although Patriots are next to useless for ballistic missiles, they are a very big threat to any PRC aircraft that go over Taiwan. The mainlanders will definitely have to deal with them at some point.
Uh, sure, no system is perfect, but US laser guided or GPS guided munitions are pretty well deadly fucking accurate. For JDAMs, the ones we dropped from a B-2 on the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the accuracy is within three meters over 95% of the time. Within three meters is pretty well a direct hit. The PRC can’t yet get anywhere near that kind of accuracy, unless of course they do it with laser guided bombs. They’d have to establish air superiority first to do that, which is not their order of battle. They want to use the missiles first. The main thing to fear is not how many missiles they have, but whether they can somehow adopt a GPS system to guide them. That’s not likely. The US will deny them use of our system, and the European Galileo system just left the Chinese out. In order for them to get the accuracy they want, they’d have to put a couple of dozen GPS satellites orbit. That ain’t gonna happen soon.
It’s not. The only thing the highways are good for is recovering aircraft that have nowhere else to land. They couldn’t really hope to conduct real flight operations from the highways, and they will probably never need to. It’s just a show. It would be too much trouble to prepare and sweep the highway of foreign objects and get fuel and missiles there during a war. If airbases get hit hard and fighters need a place to land, they’ll go for any of 20 or so civilian strips before they go for highways. There’s just no way that the PRC’s missiles can take all of it out. For years the ROCAF has had plans to quickly move munitions to civilian strips if airbases get roughed up too much. I don’t know how well that would work, but it is definitely more feasible than using the highways.
[quote=“Jive Turkey”]
Of course one benefit of having the Patriots around is that they are one more target that the PRC will have to hit with ballistic missiles.[/quote]That is what I was alluding to, but thanks for putting it clearly
Next question: If a war (sudden or otherwise) were to break out between China and Taiwan, what percentage of the ROC military do you think would be loyal to the PRC? How much sabotage could be expected? This is a question that requires much more speculation but I would be interested in opinions.
[quote=“Interlocutor”]what percentage of the ROC military do you think would be loyal to the PRC? How much sabotage could be expected?[/quote]Loyal to the PRC? I think none. But, loyal to KMT rather than the government, well there are going to be hardcore KMT officers that’s for sure. I don’t expect them to join the invaders, or help them in sabotage, but I expect they will refuse to fight.
Remember that as recently as 7 or 8 years ago you used to hear complaints from officers who getting a hard time in the military for being supporters of (then) opposition parties? I haven’t heard those kind of complaints for a long time, and if it were a problem you sure would have heard about it. KMT’s grip on the military is not what it was.
I did some work for the ROC Military Police a couple years ago, and I took a little poll of all of the soldiers I worked with. They are supposed to be one of the more “elite” units of the ROC military, and the vast majority said they would not fight, although they would not join with the PRC forces either.
[quote=“LittleBuddhaTW”]I did some work for the ROC Military Police a couple years ago, and I took a little poll of all of the soldiers I worked with. They are supposed to be one of the more “elite” units of the ROC military, and the vast majority said they would not fight, although they would not join with the PRC forces either.[/quote]Bastards should stop drawing those paychecks then, shouldn’t they? :fume: After all, except for the PLA, who the hell are they supposed to be protecting us from?
That doesn’t really jibe with any conversations I’ve had with ROC military types. I think it all depends on how hostilities break out. When did you conduct this little survey? Was it shortly after Chen took office? Moral was quite low then. The military was not prepared to be loyal to a government instead of a political party.
I think it all depends on who the officers see as the cause of war. If they think the PRC is the aggressor, then they are more likely to fight. We also have to take into account that the military is slowly but surely turning green. Perhaps in ten years time, that greening will have extended all the way to the top of the military. Nevertheless, the military will always be more cautious than the politicians. That is true in the US and most other developed countries.
That doesn’t really jibe with any conversations I’ve had with ROC military types. I think it all depends on how hostilities break out. When did you conduct this little survey? Was it shortly after Chen took office? Moral was quite low then. The military was not prepared to be loyal to a government instead of a political party.
I think it all depends on who the officers see as the cause of war. If they think the PRC is the aggressor, then they are more likely to fight. We also have to take into account that the military is slowly but surely turning green. Perhaps in ten years time, that greening will have extended all the way to the top of the military. Nevertheless, the military will always be more cautious than the politicians. That is true in the US and most other developed countries.[/quote]
Agreed. And once bombs start dropping taking out these ‘elite’ army folks parents, children, relatives, friends and neighbours I am sure their attitude would change.
I am sure ac has a theory that the Chinese weapons are pro-mainland friendly and will only target pro-independence types. :loco:
[quote=“AWOL”]
I am sure ac has a theory that the Chinese weapons are pro-mainland friendly and will only target pro-independence types. :loco:[/quote]Having been labelled a “TI extremist”, I would not publish my lat/long coordinates here…
[quote=“hsiadogah”][quote=“AWOL”]
I am sure ac has a theory that the Chinese weapons are pro-mainland friendly and will only target pro-independence types. :loco:[/quote]Having been labelled a “TI extremist”, I would not publish my lat/long coordinates here…[/quote]
But you’ve already your position away, you idiot. Hello? “Near the 7-11?” I’ll bet they’ve got you in their crosshairs already.
I think both sides would have reservations about fighting each other but once it had started well then the time for procrastinating may be out.
In China they are brainwashed that Taiwan is a separatists trying to break from China, therefore they are doing their patriotic duty to China to stop this
In Taiwan they are thought they are Chinese, Taiwanese, both, and neither at different times of their life and by different TV channels.
I have a friend who volunteered for 4 years in the marines. His thinking is, most Taiwanese he served with or served under him, were confused on the whole issue. Did they want to do service? No, would they fight for Taiwan? Hard to say. Although they will be recalled and have to pickup a gun and defend Taiwan from the Communist/ Chinese Invasion, would their hearts be in it? He thinks not.
Self preservation verses the chance of killing yourself for Taiwan. Shit most of them are confused about what they are. Why would they fight for the unknown?
Not all were like this, there were some guys who claimed they would die for Taiwan as would he.
[quote=“Jive Turkey”]
But you’ve already your position away, you idiot. Hello? “Near the 7-11?” I’ll bet they’ve got you in their crosshairs already. [/quote] :help: OH NO3S!!11!!
The KMT/ROC military were killing commies before most of us were born. So I have complete faith they will fight PLA, if the PLA came over in a situation where the ROC did not provoke them.
Whether or not they will fight if a DPP draft dodging President provokes a war with PRC is a whole other issue.
AWOL,
Oh, there are munitions that can target on political idealogy. Know where I can get a conservative-republican-smart bomb as well as a rabid-TI-extremist laser guided missle. Surely 7-11 must have them behind the counter.
This was shortly after 9-11, and the “pollees” were privates and low-ranking commissioned officers. The VAST majority said they wouldn’t fight (this was not said in front of their commander, a colonel, however). Numerous reservists I have spoken with also have said they will not fight (although they too would not join with the PLA forces).
That said, I would stay and fight. It would be a waste of training if i didn’t.
[quote=“ac_dropout”]I have agree with Jive Turkey on this.
The KMT/ROC military were killing commies before most of us were born. So I have complete faith they will fight PLA, if the PLA came over in a situation where the ROC did not provoke them.[/quote]THE KMT/PFP/AC_Dropout Alliance is the PRC/CCP/PLA’s “Fifth Column” here in Taiwan. They will invoke serious fear mongering and proceed from there. Maybe even a coup. I think they should all be round up and put in a concentration camp if war breaks out!
[quote=“Hobart”]THE KMT/PFP/AC_Dropout Alliance is the PRC/CCP/PLA’s “Fifth Column” here in Taiwan. They will invoke serious fear mongering and proceed from there. Maybe even a coup. I think they should all be rounded up and put in a concentration camp if war breaks out![/quote]Why wait?
Well certain conspicuous examples are exceptions to that theory. The Cuban Missile Crisis comes to mind. If Kennedy had listened to his generals we might not all be here writing about current conflicts.
There is always a proportion of military personel (up to 75% in some units during WW2) who, when it comes to “war” and actually killing another human being, will conscientiously object, or simply fire at the ground or into the air. This is a historical fact in conflict from the American Revolution, Civil War, WW1 and 2 etc
Interestingly not all of these objectors were drafted.
Also, during WW2:
I think it might be worth bearing this in mind when considering your poll. I doubt they answered the way they did because they were infiltrators, participating in “sabotage”, suffering from confused national identity or whatever.
:help: OH NO3S!!11!!
