Where are they gonna go? Through Japanese waters? Taiwanese waters? Philippine waters? They have to pick one of three hostile waters to cross. Blockading Taiwan would mean that one of these three countries would let them through to the other side.
This article discusses how an invasion could play out, and proposes that Taiwan could even win!
Notice how the staging areas shown in the map are well beyond Kinmen and Matsu
[Ian] Easton [a fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, in his book The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia] estimates that Taiwanese, American, and Japanese leaders will know that the PLA is preparing for a cross-strait war more than 60 days before hostilities begin. They wi…
Although Beijing is undoubtedly committed to further widening the military imbalance in the Taiwan Strait and to deploying assets that can delay or even prevent a U.S. intervention, China’s ability to prosecute a quick invasion of Taiwan at...
Given the closed political system in China, tight controls on the media and heavy censorship, it is difficult to assess the current levels of instability in China that may exist in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic which, if serious enough, could encourage an insecure CCP to seek external distractions—along the border with India, in the South China Sea or, as the mother of all rallying points for Chinese nationalists, the unfinished business of Taiwan.
China’s flexing seems more suggestive of internal issues than a belief that it’s ready and capable of fighting and winning a war against Western powers.
I also doubt the USA or anyone will do anything but sanction. You don’t war with nuclear nations. Nothing stops China from firing nukes at Japan and Taiwan as they slowly lose as a last ditch response. But also, what do I know.
China doesn’t know either so thats why they are reluctant to try
China doesn’t have enough nukes, or the delivery systems capable of getting them to their targets, to knock the US out.
If China launches a nuclear first strike against Japan, Taiwan or any other nation aligned to US interests, the silent service alone could turn China’s entire eastern coast into a glass parking lot. And if the Chinese thought the century of humiliation was bad, they’d be in for a millennium of humiliation.
The US isn’t going to start a hot war with China. The US is trying to maintain the status quo. China is the one that isn’t satisfied with the status quo.
If China starts a war to change the status quo and uses nukes, it might go down as the greatest military blunder in history.
An air and sea blockade would be one of China’s first moves. Need to control the back door before knocking on the front door. Such a move would also stretch Taiwan’s defenses. Power plants and other major infrastructure targets would be hit, along with seats of power. Paratroop drops all over the island. Small-scale special forces amphibious landings all over the island thru a thousand small back doors. Meanwhile the bulk of Taiwan’s defense forces would remain locked along the Strait in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with the PLA’s massive offshore amphibious forces, poised to invade… Rearguard PLA attacks would continue to eat away at Taiwan’s defenses, finally drawing away some Taiwan defense forces from the stalemate along the Strait. Only when the fighting elsewhere on the island had drawn away enough of Taiwan’s strength would the main amphibious assault launch.
Meanwhile President Kamala Harris would be trying to decide whether or not to sit out World War 3 for a country the U.S. doesn’t even have formal diplomatic relations with.
If China does this, even if America doesn’t intervene, they would embargo China at the very least. That would be damaging to China to say the least unless they can secure their own resources. It would be hard because America has allies all over the world. They’d end up like Cuba and if that happens China will have serious internal problems to deal with.
And America would probably do more than embargo, they would likely provide air support to Taiwan or lend lease stuff like F35’s. Or park a few carriers on the East Coast of Taiwan which would make blockades impossible.
All they need is one. The financial and political fallout would be significant.
All they need is one? That’s not how nuclear war works.
The US spent decades in a Cold War preparing for all-out nuclear conflict. The US stockpile is close to 4,000 if you don’t count retired weapons, and over 1,000 are actively deployed across the world’s most robust nuclear triad. China, by comparison, has a total stockpile of perhaps 300 weapons, and according to the Federation of American Scientists, none are believed to be deployed.
If China uses a single nuke in a first-strike, the financial and political fallout would be significant. And far more significant for China’s future than that of the US as it would mean the end of the CCP and perhaps modern day China.