Must read on the prospects of an invasion by the PRC

#1

Sorry if this has been posted. I’ve spoken with an US Navy engineer back on memorial day weekend, and he shares this article’s optimism.

.https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/

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#2

2.5 million reservists with access to arms…possible?

#3

From the article:

Both Westerners and Taiwanese should be more optimistic about the defense of Taiwan than is now normal.

Both Westerners and Taiwanese should be more optimistic about the defense of Taiwan than is now normal.
Yes, the Taiwanese Army projects that it can only hold off its enemy for two weeks after the landing—but the PLA also believes that if it cannot defeat the Taiwanese forces in under two weeks, it will lose the war! Yes, the disparity between the military budgets on both sides of the strait is large, and growing—but the Taiwanese do not need parity to deter Chinese aggression. All they need is the freedom to purchase the sort of arms that make invasion unthinkable. If that political battle can be resolved in the halls of Washington, the party will not have the power to threaten battle on the shores of Taiwan

Taiwan could be the Oakland As of amphibious invasion defense.

#4

Also from the article:

“There are only 13 beaches on Taiwan’s western coast that the PLA could possibly land at. Each of these has already been prepared for a potential conflict” and “The berm of each beach has been covered with razor-leaf plants.” And “The path from these beaches to the capital has been painstakingly mapped; once a state of emergency has been declared, each step of the journey will be complicated or booby-trapped. PLA war manuals warn soldiers that skyscrapers and rock outcrops will have steel cords strung between them to entangle helicopters”

That 'ill keep em out! Murrrghhaa ha a ha ha ha!

Seriously though, how the hell is a weed on a beach and a bit of steel wire worth mentioning.

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#5

Not weeds… the article speaks of terrifying razor leaf plants (isn’t razor leaf a Pokemon move?) … and before facing those cacti, or whatever they are, the invaders have to survive the _sea sickness_that the article also mentions. But the “PRC grunt” described in the article also faces more serious threats:

“In the weeks leading up to war, he discovers that his older cousin—whose remittances support their grandparents in the Anhui countryside—has lost her job in Shanghai. All wire money transfers from Taipei have stopped, and the millions of Chinese who are employed by Taiwanese companies have had their pay suspended.”

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#6

How much do they factor in the combat readiness, mental and physical toughness or whatever you call it. Taiwan’s isn’t that great, but I saw some PLA cadets doing pull ups with gloves…so I’m not sure they are much better.

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#7

And they have probably had their soup orders deliberately mixed up too, Oh the humanity!

#8

I also question how operational and practical their equipments are in real life vs on paper. The Germans had some crazy shit on paper as well that didn’t work. At least most of ours in Taiwan have been used or variations used in combat situations.

I think China can level Taiwan within days if they wanted. But to keep infrastructure and people that actually want to fall in line. Even for Taiwan who isn’t the most natioanlitic will be hard.

#9

CrippleFight15

They have nukes though. WWIII anyone?;

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#10

I thought they were to deter war haha. Wouldn’t be much of a war once any country fires a nuke, a whole bunch will just come after.

You think China could nuke Taiwan and everyone would kinda don’t give a shit? I wonder sometimes.

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#11

Well how else are they supposed to get past the ‘razor grass’ thats been planted on the beaches?

#12

Why would they come after they nuke? They want to have children with 3 penises?

#13

But how are grandma and Grandpa going to get their remittances if the company headquarters has been glassed

#14

Are they really that sick and sad, who knows…

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#15

Pullups with gloves? Lol. Although I’ve seen a few guys in the gym here wearing gloves and just hanging from the bar. I’ve also seen female uni students in China undergoing military “training”: dressed in camouflage fatigues, squealing, taking selfies, fraternising with the enemy (me). About as martial as hello kitty.

3 penis children could repopulate the island faster…

The article is correct that a full-scale land invasion of Taiwan (hardly the most likely scenario) by the PRC would be an incredibly reckless gamble. If such an invasion (God forbid) ever took place, the PRC would be committed to winning at any cost. If push came to shove, even in the improbable “Battle of Stalingrad” scenario of resistance imagined in the article, the PRC ultimately has the military resources to destroy opposition (presuming, of course, US unwillingness to engage in direct conflict with the PRC). However, a “victory” under such circumstances would have terrible and unforeseeable repercussions for the PRC as a whole. It would be quite unlike the circumstances of the Tiananmen Square massacre, where the leadership was willing to accept sanctions, a temporary blow to the economy and international opprobrium for the sake of preserving the CCP’s authoritarian domination. The CCP leadership won’t (and cannot) allow moves towards Taiwan’s independence, but the leadership would be extremely reluctant to gamble on an invasion… that’d be risking – to use a Chinese idiom – dropping the whole Chinese watermelon for the sake of the Taiwanese sesame seed.

#16

There have been about half a dozen similar article over the past year, by the National Interest, Project 2049 and others. They always end with the conclusion/recommendation that Washington needs to sell more and better weapons to Taiwan and that Taiwan needs to spend more on its defense (aka buy more weapons). Makes you wonder . . .

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#17

Yes, it was actually like those mitts that factory workers use. They lined up to do pull ups and share the same gloves. I think they were cadets in college. Very skinny young kids. Uniforms with no ranking. I thought it was so funny I got up to the one next to them and proceed to do like a bunch with ease. They ask me how I can do some many. I said something like I train in Taiwan. And walked away.

#18

Chinese commanders fear they may be forced into armed contest with an enemy that is better trained, better motivated, and better prepared for the rigors of warfare than troops the PLA could throw against them.

Really? Of course, is only conjecture on my part but I do not believe Taiwan armed forces are capable of setting up or maintaining the wide range of defenses mentioned in this article.

Is the PLA full of wimps? This article seems to imply this. In the past conflicts against Russia, U.S., India…they certainly held their own. Who has Taiwan fought in the last 50 years? Better prepared for rigors of warfare?

China does not have to invade this island. Any conflict will seriously damage Taiwan’s economy and the million Taiwanese in China are without jobs and investments lost. I think no way Taiwan could maintain any reasonable standard of living with international trade damaged and foreign investment stopped.

#19

Pretty much.

#20

A million plus hostages gives China the upper hand.

What kind of better weapon, aside from nuclear, would be an actual deterrent? Or winning card, for all that matters?