Some of you may have read this editorial in the Taipei Times: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2012/11/22/2003548293/1. If nothing else it was an effort to address the problem of China’s military threat with a realistic approach, albeit still a bit desperate. I’m not sure about the whole “help spread democracy across Asia” thing, but reducing military personnel quotas would make sense when converting to a voluntary army. It’s obvious that trying to bolster the number of boots on the ground has long since passed its realistic expectations in the event of an invasion from China. Use the money instead to acquire the technology needed to maximize causalities to China’s air force and navy. What do you think?
Somehow in any military attack, I do not think China gives an effing continental about casualties.
In my former life I was in China on business once a month.
I used to deal with educated Chinese, and they believe Taiwan needs to be brought back into the fold at any cost. Granted they are all effectively brainwashed, but this is irrelevant.
If they lost 200 000 in an invasion, the cost would be worth it to them.They are extremely Nationalistic, and believe China is on its way to being the sole superpower.
Militarily they probably will, simply because they are willing to lose hundreds of thousands to any nationalistic cause.
The USA is not willing to face large casualties anymore.
[quote=“bigduke6”]Somehow in any military attack, I do not think China gives an effing continental about casualties.
In my former life I was in China on business once a month.
I used to deal with educated Chinese, and they believe Taiwan needs to be brought back into the fold at any cost. Granted they are all effectively brainwashed, but this is irrelevant.
If they lost 200 000 in an invasion, the cost would be worth it to them.They are extremely Nationalistic, and believe China is on its way to being the sole superpower.
Militarily they probably will, simply because they are willing to lose hundreds of thousands to any nationalistic cause.
The USA is not willing to face large casualties anymore.[/quote]
On that note, Taiwan should build a nuclear arsenal and target the 3 gorges dam 
[quote=“louisfriend”][quote=“bigduke6”]Somehow in any military attack, I do not think China gives an effing continental about casualties.
In my former life I was in China on business once a month.
I used to deal with educated Chinese, and they believe Taiwan needs to be brought back into the fold at any cost. Granted they are all effectively brainwashed, but this is irrelevant.
If they lost 200 000 in an invasion, the cost would be worth it to them.They are extremely Nationalistic, and believe China is on its way to being the sole superpower.
Militarily they probably will, simply because they are willing to lose hundreds of thousands to any nationalistic cause.
The USA is not willing to face large casualties anymore.[/quote]
On that note, Taiwan should build a nuclear arsenal and target the 3 gorges dam [/quote]
Probably their best option at the moment. And when I see the soldiers standing guard at the 2 bases near my home, they look like a bunch of girlyboys. I don’t think they have the strength to lift a BB gun, and if they do, the recoil will break their shoulders.
There’s no hope.
China not only clearly outnumbers the Taiwanese military, but much of their military technology comes from Israel.
Welcome to the future People’s Republic of Taiwan.
[quote=“bigduke6”]Somehow in any military attack, I do not think China gives an effing continental about casualties…
If they lost 200 000 in an invasion, the cost would be worth it to them.They are extremely Nationalistic, and believe China is on its way to being the sole superpower…
Militarily they probably will, simply because they are willing to lose hundreds of thousands to any nationalistic cause.
[/quote]
I call BS on that one! Any invasion in which China lost 200,000 soldiers - OK, you are exaggerating, let’s say 50,000 soldiers - would not only be a military disaster for them, but also they would have to trash Taiwan in the process - destroying a major player in East Asia’s economy, not to mention fucking up the world IT sector for a few years.
The generals and leaders responsible would be fired - if they were lucky. There would also certainly be a major political cost the next time there was a leadership change in the CCP.
[quote=“bigduke6”]
The USA is not willing to face large casualties anymore.[/quote]
They never were. But they did when they had to. Is losing the Western Pacific - or being demoted to an inferior and eroding position there - worth going to war over?
Well maybe not. But China’s position has lots of bluster in it.
First of all, their spanking new army has never been battle tested. Oops! That might be a problem, if they had to - for example - fight one with the US.
Second, if they started a nuclear war with the USA - which some of their most rabid (but published in gov magazines) retired generals have threatened was possible - over such issues as the South China Sea, it would mean the permanent deletion of China from planet Earth. Yeah, America would be mutilated. But China would be vaporized.
It’s all a poker game, actually. But don’t count the US out. When have they ever pussied out of a war?
But there will probably never be a war over Taiwan unless there is a serious internal threat to CCP rule. Like Argentina and the Falklands. 
[quote=“BigJohn”]
First of all, their spanking new army has never been battle tested. Oops! That might be a problem, if they had to - for example - fight one with the US.[/quote]
Yep. Their new toys look good, and will pack a punch, but it’s not like we will be sleeping at the radar again.
[quote]
Second, if they started a nuclear war with the USA - which some of their most rabid (but published in gov magazines) retired generals have threatened was possible - over such issues as the South China Sea, it would mean the permanent deletion of China from planet Earth. Yeah, America would be mutilated. But China would be vaporized. [/quote]
Yeah, the Chinese are just not that crazy. Not going to happen.
[quote]
It’s all a poker game, actually. But don’t count the US out. When have they ever pussied out of a war? [/quote]
Wouldn’t be safe to bet on, or we’d be speaking Chinese here now 
believe it
There’s the rub.
[quote]I call BS on that one! Any invasion in which China lost 200,000 soldiers - OK, you are exaggerating, let’s say 50,000 soldiers - would not only be a military disaster for them, but also they would have to trash Taiwan in the process - destroying a major player in East Asia’s economy, not to mention fucking up the world IT sector for a few years.
The generals and leaders responsible would be fired - if they were lucky. There would also certainly be a major political cost the next time there was a leadership change in the CCP.
[/quote]
I call BS on the BS.
Have you ever sat down and discussed the Issue with an educated Chinese person? I have discussed it with many. When I used to tell them my wife was Taiwanese, the dinner conversation always went towards the Taiwan issue, in a nice way of course.
They do not give a shit about casualties. Bringing Taiwan back into the fold is all that matters to them. They cannot think rationally on the subject as they have been indoctrinated since birth. Look at the demonstrations in China against Japan recently as an example.
And in a one party state with a strictly controlled media, any real casualty figures would never be known anyway.
The Party would emerge stronger than ever.
The nuclear option,I agree is bluster.
Right, back to the important issue. “Nipples”.
[quote=“bigduke6”]
Have you ever sat down and discussed the Issue with an educated Chinese person? I have discussed it with many. When I used to tell them my wife was Taiwanese, the dinner conversation always went towards the Taiwan issue, in a nice way of course.
They do not give a shit about casualties. Bringing Taiwan back into the fold is all that matters to them. They cannot think rationally on the subject as they have been indoctrinated since birth. Look at the demonstrations in China against Japan recently as an example.
And in a one party state with a strictly controlled media, any real casualty figures would never be known anyway.
The Party would emerge stronger than ever.[/quote]
Not sure about your logic here. So, the educated Chinese people you talked to said they didn’t care about casualties?
If there were tens of thousands of lives lost in a struggle, the world would know. Satellites and the Internet.
[quote=“bigduke6”]
Right, back to the important issue. “Nipples”.[/quote]
Hao!
[quote=“bigduke6”]
The Party would emerge stronger than ever.
The nuclear option,I agree is bluster.
Right, back to the important issue. “Nipples”.[/quote]
Tell you what, them Commies start sending their nipples over here, well…
Game over, man, game over.
Nipples…nipples…hmmm…where was I…ah yes carnage and war that’s right.
Unfortunately I have had the exact same experiences as bigduke, there are so many rabid nationalist there, they would love to send the troops over and wouldn’t even care about deaths as long as they won. Sometimes it’s brainwashing and sometimes it’s more than that, like it’s our turn to teach everybody a lesson now…
You cannot even debate with them at all.
However being Chinese they care about face more than anything, if they make a balls of an invasion the commie govt would be finished very quickly. The army is untested there, as long as the US stands by Taiwan they don’t have a chance , that’s my firm belief.
This is worse in China. The Taiwanese are a little bit bigger than the Chinese, on the whole. Taiwanese soldiers may look like girly boys (not all), but Chinese soldiers look like 12 year old girly boys.
I also agree about the older educated Chinese not giving a rat’s ass about how many Taiwanese die. But quite a few of the younger ones don’t want a war at all.
The younger ones are not the generals: the older ones are.
And from what I’ve met from Chinese people, No, they would stop at nothing to reclaim taiwan once they’d crossed the line, because it’s not about the land or the resource or the people of Taiwan, which after all are a drop in the bucket next to the mass of China, because it’s the principle of the matter that’s important to them. And Chinese are, and always have been, very very principled cunts.
The youngsters are just cannon fodder anyway.
And believe me a lot of them Chinese want to cross the line. The shitline
I think all the posts ring true. I can relate to those who have talked with irrational, belligerent, and so-called educated Chinese about the topic of Taiwan. A couple of times I nearly broke one of them down with a carefully configured path to a reasonable thought, when suddenly they would realize the trap and snap back to “I don’t care what you say, Taiwan is part of China no matter what.” It’s seriously like some kind computer program in their mind. It’s scary and sad and at the same time fascinating. As far as the U.S. deferring China from forcing Taiwan into their fold, I see a few factors that tilt things in China’s favor: 1) 90% of Chinese want to use force to take over Taiwan, 90% of Americans think Taiwan is actually Thailand. 2) Politically, the U.S. government is under pressure to end its wars while China’s government is under pressure to go to war 3) America is more careful not to upset Beijing about Taiwan than ever before, and the U.S. has been unwilling to supply Taiwan with the military equipment it’s needed for more than a decade. 4) The Chinese are actually unable to give up on the idea that taking Taiwan is a major priority. But if my hunch is right there won’t be any need for a war. From all of the articles I’ve read and IR lectures I’ve attended, I have a gut feeling the future of Taiwan has already been negotiated between the U.S., KMT, and CCP.
[quote=“BigJohn”][quote=“bigduke6”]
Have you ever sat down and discussed the Issue with an educated Chinese person? I have discussed it with many. When I used to tell them my wife was Taiwanese, the dinner conversation always went towards the Taiwan issue, in a nice way of course.
They do not give a shit about casualties. Bringing Taiwan back into the fold is all that matters to them. They cannot think rationally on the subject as they have been indoctrinated since birth. Look at the demonstrations in China against Japan recently as an example.
And in a one party state with a strictly controlled media, any real casualty figures would never be known anyway.
The Party would emerge stronger than ever.[/quote]
Not sure about your logic here. So, the educated Chinese people you talked to said they didn’t care about casualties?
If there were tens of thousands of lives lost in a struggle, the world would know. Satellites and the Internet.
[quote=“bigduke6”]
Right, back to the important issue. “Nipples”.[/quote]
Hao![/quote]
Yea, they don’t care about casualties, as long as it is not their life or their children’s life on the line. They huff and puff, but want someone else to do the dying.
its true about talking to mainland chinese about this. anytime taiwan is mentioned to them they will say ‘taiwan is part of china’ or call it ‘taiwan province’ any discussion of taiwan or japan goes the same way. they cannot accept rational points against what they believe, and they cannot stand to hear any criticism of china. ccp has done a disturbingly good job of brainwashing nearly 100% of their population.
The PRC won’t commit any troops to an invasion. They just need to keep lobbing missiles over until the ROC government submits.
I bet the beginning will be all about embargoes and other administrative pressure. I have talked to a lot of “educated Taiwanese” in the US (people that moved the US about 20 years ago) and they also think Taiwan is China, a lot of them are very rich people, also they always frown when my wife said she was from Nantou County.
Taiwan (de jure) independence, realistically how?