louisfriend:
What do you think they decided?
Whelp, it’s all speculation. But if my hunch is right and some persuasions have been made behind closed doors, I think there are 2 different avenues of agreement that would be most likely. Either scenario isn’t going to bode well for Taiwan’s status in the long term. I won’t bother mentioning the specifics of my guesswork because: 1. I’m just guessing 2. Even if it turns out I’m right no one will know I was right, including me. But even by conservative measures, all hunches and guesswork aside, most would agree Taiwan will have little room to maneuver from China’s advances by, let’s say, 2020. That doesn’t take into account the possibility of major unexpected events. The only way I see Taiwan pulling out of it would be from a major unexpected unexpected event, such as China loosing a major war, or something else belonging to the unlikely and catastrophic event category.
I have lived and worked in mainland China for 4 years.
I travel back and forth between my houses in Beihai Guangxi to Beijing.
I have been coming to China for the last 10 years.
The conventional wisdom is that the Chinese have gamed out invasion scenarios and it is not likely that they would ever in the immediate future invade Taiwan.
They could in a year or two blockade the Island. They can legally do this under international law.
In fact it would be more legal than the 1960 blockade of Cuba by USA. Technically that was illegal.
I am leaving the mainland for good now and returning home to the USA. The Mainland has in my opinion been slowly reverting back into authoritarianism.
As an American and seeing that a significant population of the Taiwanese wishes to have some sort of reconciliation with this Communist Government, I do not feel that the USA should get involved.
If the relationship between the USA and the Mainland was to deteriorate further Taiwan would not be the logical or strategic theater.
I would think that asymmetrical warfare aimed at destabilizing the CCP would be a much better approach; and Tibet would be my choice.
Tibet has all the advantages for the USA & all the disadvantages for the CCP.
Taiwan simply has too many disadvantages, and any invasion should be best fought economically and politically.
Any opinions?
Well Tibet isn’t able to buy billions of USD of weapons systems, nor does it offer a staging post for a Pacific fleet.
The US doesn’t spend much on Taiwan, In fact they make money, so I don’t see the problem.
In terms of changing the status quo, that would just be giving away a chess piece for no reason.
[quote=“rerhart585”]
As an American and seeing that a significant population of the Taiwanese wishes to have some sort of reconciliation with this Communist Government, I do not feel that the USA should get involved.
If the relationship between the USA and the Mainland was to deteriorate further Taiwan would not be the logical or strategic theater.
I would think that asymmetrical warfare aimed at destabilizing the CCP would be a much better approach; and Tibet would be my choice.
Tibet has all the advantages for the USA & all the disadvantages for the CCP.
Taiwan simply has too many disadvantages, and any invasion should be best fought economically and politically.
Any opinions?[/quote]
I would say your sampling is very few and biased. Most likely due to the fact that you probably have met these “Taiwanese people” in China. And most of them are KMT douche bags, claiming to be speaking for the Taiwanese, while willingly chooses to live in China and getting fat on special savings interest and tax privileges in Taiwan.
Actual Taiwanese people living in China work hard just to keep their competitive advantage and if they are entrepreneurs, tries hard to keep their business a float without their Chinese “partners” stealing the fruit of their labor.
In almost all polls in the past 10 years, the majority of Taiwanese people do not consider themselves Chinese. Furthermore, only those born and raise straight out of the KMT internal system would even consider using the term “reconciliation with the CCP”. That is born out of he past conflicts between those two parties. Actual Taiwanese people do not have past grudges with the CCP to “reconcile”. Taiwanese people have current grudges with the CCP because CCP constantly threats to invade Taiwan with force.
I think Taiwan serves as a strategic area in the Pacific if the US and China do come to conflict. Giving Taiwan to China would be like opening a door directly to Guam. By the way, what’s with all those Chinese living in Guam? How is that safe for national security?
You can’t have your cake and eat. You can’t just ‘give up Taiwan’ and expect things to stop there. This is a sign of weakness.
At the same time, the statement ‘reconciliation’ is correct. Of course any right minding Taiwanese would like ‘reconciliation’ but that does not mean joining with China. In fact, as Hansioux already stated, most Taiwanese prefer the status quo and certainly do not want to become part of China. You can’t get a balanced view of Taiwan from China as Taiwanese living there must be very circumspect in their political views.
You cannot have this debate without considering the vulnerability of the museum. It is too open to plunder. Remember with the Chinese the number one vulnerability is the one least aired.
I have lived and worked in mainland China for 4 years. I travel back and forth between my houses in Beihai Guangxi to Beijing. I have been coming to China for the last 10 years.
The conventional wisdom is that the Chinese have gamed out invasion scenarios and it is not likely that they would ever in the immediate future invade Taiwan.
They could in a year or two blockade the Island. They can legally do this under international law. In fact it would be more legal than the 1962 blockade of Cuba by USA. Technically that was illegal.
I am leaving the mainland for good now and returning home to the USA. The Mainland has in my opinion been slowly reverting back into authoritarianism. It is time to go home, and I am very disillusioned and depressed about it.
I had great optimism when I first got here. The CCP is going to eventually kill this economy that was delivered on a silver plate by Westerners experts & Free Asian professionals and the hard work of normal Chinese Workers.
As an American and seeing that a significant population of the Taiwanese wishes to have some sort of reconciliation with this Communist Government, I do not feel that the USA should get involved.
I am not a supporter of many aspects of American Foreign policy. I do not believe we can bomb people into democracy. Democracy is a state that a culture earns.
The Middle East, & North Africa and the signals coming out of these post authoritarian cultures serve to demonstrate this point.
If the relationship between the USA and the Mainland was to deteriorate further Taiwan would not be the logical or strategic theater. Never let an enemy pick the battlefield; let them come to your battlefield.
I would think that asymmetrical warfare aimed at destabilizing the CCP would be a much better approach; and Tibet would be my choice. Tibet has all the advantages for the USA & all the disadvantages for the CCP. Make the CCP bleed to death in Tibet.
Taiwan simply has too many disadvantages, and any invasion would be best fought economically and politically.
[quote=“bigduke6”]Somehow in any military attack, I do not think China gives an effing continental about casualties.
In my former life I was in China on business once a month.
I used to deal with educated Chinese, and they believe Taiwan needs to be brought back into the fold at any cost. Granted they are all effectively brainwashed, but this is irrelevant.
If they lost 200 000 in an invasion, the cost would be worth it to them.They are extremely Nationalistic, and believe China is on its way to being the sole superpower.
Militarily they probably will, simply because they are willing to lose hundreds of thousands to any nationalistic cause.
The USA is not willing to face large casualties anymore.[/quote]
[quote=“rerhart585”]
They could in a year or two blockade the Island. They can legally do this under international law. [/quote]
Utter codswallop!
More legal?
:eh:
[quote=“headhonchoII”]Well Tibet isn’t able to buy billions of USD of weapons systems, nor does it offer a staging post for a Pacific fleet.
The US doesn’t spend much on Taiwan, In fact they make money, so I don’t see the problem.
In terms of changing the status quo, that would just be giving away a chess piece for no reason.[/quote]
I was referring to that asymmetrical warfare. No boots on the ground, and do what was done in Afghanistan and do to Authoritarian Chinese Communist when was done to Authoritarian Russian Communist.
Yes, the CCP would bleed to death there.
There are 3 counties that have stated on numerous occasions, and have as official state policy the destruction of a functional democracy. These policies have nothing to do with retaliatory acts in the event of aggression, but rather that these states feel that these democracies simply have no right to exist. All 3 are authoritarian regimes.
Iran regarding Israel, North Korea regarding the South Korea, & China regarding Taiwan.
[quote=“rerhart585”] The Mainland has in my opinion been slowly reverting back into authoritarianism.
Any opinions?[/quote]
There’s Taiwan, and then there’s China. What’s all this Mainland rubbish? 
When you say Mainland, I take it you mean China, rather than the Japanese mainland (I live in Okinawa, and the mainland refers to Japan from where i sit).
semantics aside, China hasn’t been “slowly reverting back into authoritarianism”, as you put it, it’s already a fascist state, and has been for years. No connection to the party, no future. Why the fuck would anyone want to run a foreign owned business there, when the party lets you build it up and then strips the assets and arrests the foreign stakeholders and lets them rot in jail. See Rio Tinto, Suncorp, and countless others. ONly rupert Murdoch has escaped this so far, but at the cost of selling out his family by marrying some Chinese bint and abandoning all pretense to moral ity and ethics.
Wait, he always was a cunt. Strike that previous comment.
You know that the CIA tried that already right? Arming the Tibetan rebels using CIA secret transport planes, with CIA on the ground training them? They have tried that in the 60s and the 70s. How is such operation going to be any more successful now that China is this much stronger? Besides, China already controls Tibet, it would be your imaginary Tibetan rebels that would bleed to death trying to get back into Tibet.
If history has taught us anything is that Tibetans hasn’t been very good at fighting wars since the10th century, and they aren’t going to get any better soon.
[quote=“urodacus”][quote=“rerhart585”] The Mainland has in my opinion been slowly reverting back into authoritarianism.
Any opinions?[/quote]
There’s Taiwan, and then there’s China. What’s all this Mainland rubbish?
When you say Mainland, I take it you mean China, rather than the Japanese mainland (I live in Okinawa, and the mainland refers to Japan from where i sit).
semantics aside, China hasn’t been “slowly reverting back into authoritarianism”, as you put it, it’s already a fascist state, and has been for years. No connection to the party, no future. Why the fuck would anyone want to run a foreign owned business there, when the party lets you build it up and then strips the assets and arrests the foreign stakeholders and lets them rot in jail. See Rio Tinto, Suncorp, and countless others. ONly rupert Murdoch has escaped this so far, but at the cost of selling out his family by marrying some Chinese bint and abandoning all pretense to moral ity and ethics.
Wait, he always was a cunt. Strike that previous comment.[/quote]
word… i guess the answer is short term gain, same answer for most things associated with china.
[quote=“rerhart585”]I have lived and worked in mainland China for 4 years.
I travel back and forth between my houses in Beihai Guangxi to Beijing.
I have been coming to China for the last 10 years.
The conventional wisdom is that the Chinese have gamed out invasion scenarios and it is not likely that they would ever in the immediate future invade Taiwan.
They could in a year or two blockade the Island. They can legally do this under international law.
In fact it would be more legal than the 1960 blockade of Cuba by USA. Technically that was illegal.
I am leaving the mainland for good now and returning home to the USA. The Mainland has in my opinion been slowly reverting back into authoritarianism.
As an American and seeing that a significant population of the Taiwanese wishes to have some sort of reconciliation with this Communist Government, I do not feel that the USA should get involved.
If the relationship between the USA and the Mainland was to deteriorate further Taiwan would not be the logical or strategic theater.
I would think that asymmetrical warfare aimed at destabilizing the CCP would be a much better approach; and Tibet would be my choice.
Tibet has all the advantages for the USA & all the disadvantages for the CCP.
Taiwan simply has too many disadvantages, and any invasion should be best fought economically and politically.
Any opinions?[/quote]
According to many pacts and treaties we have with the US, Taiwan is technically US’s business whether you like it or not. Just like the Japan is Us’s business. Taiwan would be a vital location if a war is to erupt, and I can bet that the US wouldn’t just stand by while Communist China takes over Taiwan. The US would come in.
I find it ironic that China constantly tells the world to stay out of their business when at the same time, China is getting into everyone else’s business.
I think only China believes Taiwan is part of China. The rest of the world just goes with it not to piss off the bear, but really, I doubt they believe Taiwan is part of China. I dont think Taiwan is China when it comes to international treaties. China just does a good job of bullying everyone about it and stopping Taiwan from having any influence. Taiwan needs to man up and just send the delegates to that Jakarta confrence recently instead of pussying out. We should ignore China’s objections and just go if the confrence allows Taiwan to go.
Taiwan has the right to defend itself. Taiwan has the right to buy arms and we have the right to put up a fight against aggressors that threatens Taiwan. If China wants to keep threatning Taiwan with missles and troops and bullying our delegates from attending events around the world, we have the right to counter that if we see fit. If China doesn’t like it, tough. Taiwan is a democracy. We have the right to do what we see fit. If you ever have been to Taiwan, you will realize that China does not control any part of Taiwan whatsoever. It really is like a country.
If you ask any Taiwanese, they will either pick the status quo, or independence. Only a extremely small amount would pick unification. And honestly, no Taiwan president wants Unification with China.
And regarding casualties, Although I dont think China cares about their people because lets be honest, China would just throw people into the front lines for the hell of it, I think the US will have minimal casualties too. Our recent wars have resulted in such minimal bodycounts compared to our opponents, that I dont think we will have many casualties.
Well, the current KMT position is still that they own and are only temporarily not in control of the entire ROC, which includes the mainland and a whole buncha other areas that even the PRC has given up on*. So that still looks like a plan for eventual unification to me (but on the KMT’s terms, whatever they may be. Probably including gilded monuments of Chiang replacing those of Mao and Deng on every mainland street corner, and renaming all the main roads to Grand Unification Success or some other jingoistic nonsense).
*Apart from the South China Sea, of course. Only the PRC believe that they own that, of course.
The ROC still claims the South China Sea…
I think many Taiwanese unwittingly believe they are part of China. Many people refer to themselves as 中國人 or say things like 中國菜, 中國電影, when what they’re referring to is stuff in Taiwan. And the “status quo” is that the government holds Taiwan and the mainland are both part of the Republic of China and shall one day reunite, so whenever anyone says they support the status quo on one hand but Taiwan is not a part of China on the other, they are technically contradicting themselves.
If Taiwan doesn’t want to be a part of China, it needs to change its constitution to reflect that. But uh… sort of off topic at this point. To bring it back, Taiwan lately has fewer reasons for defensive capability. It’s really a bargaining chip more than anything else because everyone knows the PLA would crush Taiwan’s army, and it’s pretty unlikely that the US would willingly put its forces toe-to-toe and barrel-to-barrel with China’s just for the sake of Taiwan (or even for any other reason, really). I’m also a pessimist who believes that most of Taiwan’s soldiers would throw down their guns at the first sign of trouble, but I welcome anyone to prove me wrong on that point.
[quote=“Zla’od”]louisfriend:
What do you think they decided?[/quote]
The deal would be simple. The US-government, KMT and CCP, over drinks and snacks in a nightclub in Bangkok, would shortly discuss:
- CCP: If the US decreases support to Taiwan, we will lower our power play on them. Let us Chinese (mainland, Taiwan) solve this issue.
- USA: Ok, fair. But, we may still have to follow some old laws in support of Taiwan. Sure, you guys solve it, peacefully.
- KMT: Why don’t we become like HK, settle for a 100-years guarantuee that China will leave us alone. Yes, we are only willing to give up our army.
And the next century everybody is fine continuing as things are and without any loss of face.
That wouldn’t work, because it wouldn’t have the support of the population. That’s what a lot of people forget. Not only would it not have the support of the population, the army is pretty professional here and would never disband like that.
I have to say that I haven’t had a chance to see a single soldier who looks like a soldier. They look like 10 year olds with their height and built. Most of them are forced in military out of compulsory regulations. Professional Army in Taiwan, I strongly doubt that. That 100 year contract might be a better option.
[quote=“Hokwongwei”]The ROC still claims the South China Sea…
I think many Taiwanese unwittingly believe they are part of China. Many people refer to themselves as 中國人 or say things like 中國菜, 中國電影[/quote]
I think that has more to do with being used to the phrase, rather than they really believe in it.
Many of my family elders are strongly pro Taiwanese independence, however, they were raised under a dictatorship, where brainwashing is part of getting educated enough to eventually form their own opinion about these matters. They only get into universities because they can write about “the glory of ROC” and how “all the Chinese in Taiwan will save other starving Chinese brethren under the harsh and unfree rule of the CCP” during exams.
So to this day, despite their best efforts, sometimes they would still sometimes utter stuff like “我們中國人xxx”. Other terms they have a hard time not using is 山地同胞 (Brothers in the mountains) instead of aboriginals (原住民). I have explained to them using such terms doesn’t support their agenda, and they make serious efforts not to use them, but it ain’t called brainwashing for nothing.
I think the only one matter is the 中國人 one. 中國菜 i have no issue with, that has nothing to do with self-identity. I don’t often here people say 中國電影 though, most people just say 國片 and when they do, they exclude Chinese films. Only the 金馬獎 (Golden Horse Award) would placate to the Chinese government since they day dream about becoming the Chinese Oscars.