Taiwan has signed two arms procurement contracts with the US

Politics Taiwan Politics
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Whenever I read reports about China imminently invading Taiwan I always think about how difficult that would actually be and how that would actually work? I mean, what would they do?

Getting tanks onto beaches is quite impractical for China. Apparently there aren’t many places you can do that. Would be a protracted and messy tank battle. And even if it wasn’t, and they just freely rolled into towns and villages…then what would they do? Say, “Hi, we’re here!” and it’s all over? I mean they’d have to defeat the entire TW military first, which may take a while, but definitely would be messy, and then they’d have to establish themselves as the rulers of the country. That doesn’t happen simply by a news announcement. They’d have to get the rest of the world onside, which is going to cause international relations to be so disturbed for decades. Taiwan wouldn’t be productive during that period of great upheaval at all. If China’s aim was to use TW as an extra cash cow, then I can’t see a military takeover achieving that, as the place would be decimated for a long while economically.

I guess they would first bomb key infrastructure - bridges, roads, military bases, communication systems and so on. But if they were going to do that, then they’d be destroying “their own” future infrastructure which would need rebuilding. The country would be a mess for them. Rebuilding for decades, in a country that resents them. Not easy. All the Taiwanese people’s lives being upended, societal chaos. Surely that would make it harder for them to take it over. Resistance pockets everywhere.

And I suspect that even though TW isn’t recognized as an independent country by the vast majority of the world, other countries nearby (as well as Western powers) would also chip in and assist the protracted battle on Taiwan proper. Maybe even the Philippines and Indonesia would be involved. Obviously if the US was involved then that’s practically WW3.

It seems that any scenario I can think of would result in Taiwan becoming a battleground for decades, with China invading and trying to hold ground on an island where they haven’t won the hearts and minds of the people and trying to force them to submit, all the while other countries are attacking them.

It would also be enooormously expensive for them to do this, even for China. It’s one thing to retake HK, but to take TW seems so impractical and impossible to me, or at least it wouldn’t be smooth.

I guess they could just not care and just do it out of spite, bomb the hell out of it, like a spoilt child - “If we can’t have it, then no one can!” - type of thing. No matter what the cost or end result, just obliterate it. That would show that they’ve completely lost it, if they haven’t already.

I just can’t see it working out for China, depending on their final goal of course. If they’re thinking of taking Taiwan for its resources (chips, labor, land, whatever), then that seems highly improbable to work. If they just want the entire country as a strategic military base for their expansion South and North, then they’d have to just destroy it completely and rebuild their own military bases, build that tunnel between the mainland and TW. That’s going to raise the hackles of all neighboring countries for sure.

Just can’t see it happening.

IMO, if China had taken a more benevolent stance towards Taiwan and made themselves be seen as the kindly grandfather or something, and started helping TW in various ways, then they’d win over the hearts and minds of the general population, who would simply voluntarily hand the country over.

I’m not too sure what the wolf warrior posturing is trying to achieve exactly. Maybe just to pump up their own population and show their own people how powerful they really are?

Anyone who has more insight on this, I’d be happy to hear it.

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Nah, how powerful than might be maybe if given the opportunity. Did you see the US navy testing it’s new carrier? If China does that kind of test with one of its tugboats and passes I’ll be very surprised. I’ve read they don’t even know how to turn them much less maneuver them in actual combat. Color me unimpressed.

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I see. I’ve also heard this argument - that the Chinese military aren’t particularly good at ‘war’ due to inexperience, lack of skill or that their planes/boats/tanks aren’t competitive. Would that be correct? :thinking:

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Yes. I’ve heard this straight from a U.S. Naval engineer.

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I have been thinking the same thing for years, if not the last two decades or three. The cost is just too high. The impact on China’s economy and the world’s would be immense. And like you said, what would be the goal, really? It’s about economy and military advantages. All the hard work they have been doing with the Belt and Road project, all the investments, could be in jeopardy. What if the Western world and all the East Asian countries and India, would boycott Chinese products? How would that sit with the Chinese people, who would face economic difficulties out of a sudden? How about the reaction once Chinese soldiers start returning in body bags? The Taiwanese are not really prepared for war, are the Chinese, who are just getting a taste of living rich and comfortably? Part of the Chinese could be whipped in a patriotic frenzy for sure, but how about the millions of Chinese studying and working abroad, who won’t be fooled by state propaganda?

I only see a military action becoming likely if:

  • There is deep inner turmoil in China, creating the need to unite the people by starting a war outside the country.
  • Taiwan is deteriorating for whatever reason, and is no longer able to defend itself.
  • The CCP leadership turns extremely hardline and is headed by someone way more radical than Xi.
  • Taiwan leadership turns extremely adventurous and confrontational and simply declares independence with the support of major Western countries.

The only other possibility I see is some interaction in the skies where a Chinese plane is brought down, forcing the Chinese to retaliate and the whole thing spirals out of control. Another trigger might be a war in Korea or some other major confrontation that would trigger WWIII. But then, then we are all eff’d anyway.

That doesn’t mean of course that China is not constantly playing war with Taiwan on the drawing board and looking for opportunities to take the island.

But I don’t know much. So I am likely completely wrong about everything above.

Peace!

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Thanks for your observations and analysis!

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No, did they figure out the electromagnetic catapults yet?

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Totally agree on this.

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No, not saying that at all. im saying more like this, for kicks : make a set of common sense rules based on abov points and stop acting like little entitled sellfish kings and queens and start acting the part of intelligent beings we claim so much to be.

Run on sentence just for more kicks.

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Good points. i agree a lot. But will leave you with this. the chinese government doesnt have to.care about the people. they have always tended to nt care and let them suffer. So the students aren high on their priority list…as has been seen bebefore.

As long as they dont have a mass rebellion and.civil war, i think they are quite content destroying everyone else and laughing as everyone still enables them we are like the dog that is always beaten, but we still go back for a scrap of food.

I perhaps have less faith in the world than you, at least short term. I am hopeful over say a 100 years or so. I be t on more wars and genocides before that comes to fruition.

Last point. When people think taiwan declaring.independence is the wrong part of achina taiwan war, i think they must have hit their head a few too many times. if taiwan declares independence and war happens. they ONLY group to blame, 100%, is the CCP. They can easily not go to war and stop oppressing other nations, cultures and regions. The blame is on them, not taiwan being a troublemaker. Those people sound like wives constantly making excuses for their husband beating them and raping their children. its odd…

How dare we declare facts and have self worth. The tyranny of Tsai must be stopped!

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Taiwan would do itself wonders if they started developing and implementing a missile defense network. Much like what the Israelis have created but for larger projectiles already aimed at Taiwan. Modern technology and radar makes this much easier for the protection of the island. The US could help (as they helped the Israelis develop and set up theirs) even if they were a silent partner. At the end of the day Taiwan might lose Kinmen and Penghu Islands but would be able to defend Taiwan proper. And maybe changing the name from Taiwan to Formosa could be a good idea. Until then I’m avoiding the Chivax.

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The stuff from the middle east will be send to Taiwan after being refurbished.

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The stuff is not that hard to make. Taiwan has the manufacturing capabilities for most of it. You’d be surprised how flimsy but balanced a lot of modern weaponry can be. I’ve had arguments on here before in regards to some of this stuff. Or I should say people that should generally be ignored have tried arguing with me.

My guess is that this is what the PLAAF’s aim is. Perhaps the PLAN too. To set out to detect Taiwan’s radar and defense capabilities. I note that the 100 year CCP anniversary went by without any word from them about Taiwan. Although the CCP have basically just confiscated Jimmy Lai’s business and bank accounts (Apple Daily) while arresting everyone they can for whatever they could out a charge on them for.

So maybe a deliberate distraction. That and kicking out the Taiwan TECO staff from Hong Kong whilst shuttering the Hong Kong and Macau offices in Taiwan.

Not that the last two matter all that much. Both of their economies have ground to a halt since the whole COVID fiasco was unleashed. I’d say it’s more to stop people from leaving those territories and moving to Taiwan.

Biden’s push to contain China seems to be growing momentum. If there’s a significant transfer of Western Manufacturing out of China and a concerted effort to investigate the origins of COVID (with regards to Taiwan’s evidence from November 2019 deployments of medical personnel to Wuhan included) then that might just be able to stifle China’s ambitions. Or at least slow them down somewhat significantly.

Until then the ball is in Winnie the Pooh’s court. There’s still a week or so left for him to make a statement regarding Taiwan. he was expected to make a statement around the time of the 100 year birthday but never eventuated.

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@JPMichaels1 i cannot agree more. I have also had many adebate with friends and family abou taiwan should actually manufacture more murder mahines. We have the infrastructure, logistics and almost certainly the skills available. I hope we are though i understand if the gov is keeping it secret.

Your example of israel is a very good one. But i would say ther is absolutely no coutry on earth as fcuked as Taiwan in regards to the scale of threat. We luckily just havent hit a flash point yet. But its an amazingly HUGE problem that would be impossible normally. Taiwan does, however have enough the, money, moral high ground and more to justify massive investment in defense budget.

And on the topic of war, i am a hippy at heart…even i can agree this isnt just justified, its required in orde to not be murdered, raped and stolen from.

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Taiwan’s domestically produced land2sea missiles are in fact top notch.

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Great im glad they have developed a few good things. Not enough when the enemy that says they will invade regardless are making nukes. Just as a simple example.

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Nukes will not come into play, impossible to make the case that you are “reuniting a wayward province with the motherland” by nuking them.

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Taiwan has Nukes

They tested them on the east coast in the 70s I believe. May have been the 80s.

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Step 1, create a global pandemic.

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Actually Taiwan is not so easy to invade. And obliterating the place with missiles defeats the purpose of the whole warm embrace that the CCP like to promote in regards to reunification with the Mainland. Reunification being their word for it. What makes it even more interesting is that those missiles will be aimed at the ports needed to invade. So the push out Eastwards by the PLAN makes more sense when you view it from that understanding. That means a handful of places that are suitable for landing craft on the East Coast and even only a handful of suitable landing places on the West Coast.

This is why the US never invaded Taiwan when it was controlled by the Japanese in WW2. They just went straight past and hit Okinawa.

That also brings in a lot of issues in regards to Taiwan. Technically the US Military have never surrendered control of the Island. That means that if China does attempt to invade that all Taiwan citizens would be eligible to apply for emergency visas to the US. Imagine that headache for the USA?

But as Deca said the Taiwan developed indigenous missile is top notch. It’s based on the Patriot Missile and can carry multiple interchangeable payloads. There’s also the upgrading of the Patriot Missile system which is well under way. And the upgrading of the radar defense and notification system.

The US is making it known fairly loudly that the balance between Taiwan and China has gotten too far out of whack and seems to be helping to rapidly upgrade multiple systems in a relatively short period of time. Next will be how the US approaches Duterte and the Philippines. Duterte is going on an anti-China rant but nobody believes him. He’s well and truly hitched his wagon to China. The upcoming election will show just how bad the sentiment towards Duterte and his ruling party really is.

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