[quote=“Mr He”]If a stock has doubled once…quote]
…it will double twice?
Hardly, if it has had its run you find a fool and unload it to him.
I find the charting at the Fubon Secs website http://www.fbs.com.tw/newweb/ to be much more versatile than Yahoo!Finance Taiwan 
The stock market is a burning thing
and it makes a firey ring
bound by wild desire
I fell in to a ring of fire…
I fell in to a burning ring of fire
I went down,down,down
and the flames went higher.
And it burns,burns,burns
the ring of fire
the ring of fire.
(based on Ring of Fire, with apologies to Johnny Cash)
The TAIEX over the past 5 days:
So you have discovered the joys of the biggest casino west of Vegas 
The stock market is dying,
Everyone is crying,
I got out on Monday,
I’m thinking about buying. 
Looking good for Monday. Hmmm…Anyone going to gamble? Maybe the above 6,000 was temporary and it will return to 5xxx. Hmmmm…I am going to stay out.
The markets tend to overshoot or undershoot. Don’t draw conclusions yet.
Apparently much of last week’s decline was due to announcements by the PRC government about various steps it will take to slow down its runaway economy, which is linked so closely to Taiwan’s economy.
nytimes.com/2004/04/30/busin … 0asia.html
usatoday.com/money/world/200 … over_x.htm
Nor is this is the first time this year it’s taken such steps in response to concerns about an impending implosion or the first time authorities have expressed such concerns.
iht.com/articles/514370.html
businessweek.com/magazine/co … 866035.htm
atimes.com/atimes/China/FA07Ad02.html
This seems to be more serious news for Taiwan’s stock market than a bunch of yahoo protesters with wacko conspiracy theories.
I’ve read these articles but I don’t understand the connection to Taiwan’s economy. Yes, Taiwan’s economy is closely linked to China’s. But Taiwanese companies mainly export from their factories in China. The sector that will really get hurt is people who sell raw materials to China for China’s huge construction industry.
Squeezing credit will slow down construction projects which will in turn reduce demand for raw materials. Also, I don’t think Taiwanese companies in China get credit from Chinese banks, so the credit squeeze will not affect Taiwanese much.
And there may be hidden silver linings for Taiwan. As the China Times pointed out today, the lessening of demand for raw materials in China will help Taiwan’s construction industry at a time when Taiwan is poised to begin a massive new round of public works.
From what I can see, Taiwan’s economy is booming at the moment. The market is down on news from China and on uncertainty about will happen on 20 May. For a contrarian like me, that’s a signal to buy,which I did on Friday. Note that I don’t buy individual stocks in Taiwan, but rather buy the iShares ETF that tries to reflect the entire Taiwan market.
Comments from more informed investors?
The biggest growth export market for a lot of Taiwan companies is the PRC. If they put the breaks on the economy there then, well it could hurt sales growth of Taiwan companies selling there. But I agree with you, it looks like a buying opportunity and I think people are over reacting. I think that most of the dip had to do with the dip in the NASDAQ which Taiwan’s index closely mirrors. If the US markets pick up tonight, then expect Taiwan to take make a correction tomorrow. (Just my guess, don’t bank on it, I am such the amatuer.)
I wasn’t saying that it’s not a buying opportunity,
. . . although people keep saying that every time the market goes down 
. . . and then it goes down further
. . . and further :s
. . . and further :help:
. . . and I no longer have any money to buy anything 
. . . and will be happy when people quit talking about buying opportunities and start talking about selling :lovestruck: .
Incidentally, you’re right about the similarity of recent performance between the NASDAQ and TAIEX (for some reason this service shows the former as ixic and the latter as twii), although obviously all of the various factors are interrelated – the election shenanigans and uncertainty in Taiwan, the PRC cooling its economy, the dips in the NASDAQ, fighting in Iraq and terrorist bombings, and on and on.
As for local issues, I think a lot of us (such as myself) were starting to feel that the uncertainty over the election was pretty much resolved. But it’s not. First, there’s the possibility that the recount could result in a reversal. Second, there seem to be an awful lot of nutcases out there talking about assasinating the president (wasn’t some guy just arrested for sending a fax stating that last week). I hate to be an alarmist, but that seems to be a perfectly plausible possibility to me. I think getting past May 20 will be a big milestone.
Milton Friedman wrote:
[quote]To some degree the world is getting hooked on China
The Chinese government froze the imports of steel and concrete. That’s a big depression to the Taiwanese economy. It doesn’t seem like the stock market is going to be going up in the short term.
OK I see that China Steel will be affected since it exports large amounts of steel to China. On the other hand, wouldn’t the massive expansion in Chinese domestic steel production also have hurt China Steel in the near future? Does Taiwan really export significant amounts of concrete to China? I though Taiwan didn’t have enough concrete for the domestic construction industry, let alone exports.
The Taipei Times notes that 36 percent of Taiwanese exports go to China. But what percentage is really targeting the Chinese domestic market and what percentage is parts that will be re-exported in finished products.
Don’t get me wrong–I think China’s economy is very important to Taiwan, but I’m still not sure how a credit squeeze in China and the bursting of the Chinese real-estate/construction bubble will affect Taiwanese manufacturers directly.
OK I see that China Steel will be affected since it exports large amounts of steel to China. On the other hand, wouldn’t the massive expansion in Chinese domestic steel production also have hurt China Steel in the near future?
There was an article in the TT that said there would be a glut in steel within a year or two. Either yesterdays or sundays TT.
Don’t get me wrong–I think China’s economy is very important to Taiwan, but I’m still not sure how a credit squeeze in China and the bursting of the Chinese real-estate/construction bubble will affect Taiwanese manufacturers directly.
I think it will hurt some Taiwanese manufacturers because they are invested directly in the mainland. It should have an effect depending on how much they rely on the mainland for their operations.ie can’t borrow money to expand or buy equipment or other income producting assets.
Ouch. I was hoping that those who spoke of the market bouncing back up on Monday were correct, but it looks to me like it’s still heading down.
Here’s one year:
This is not so bad. I actually didn’t buy in and was out before the drop last week. The more it goes down the more it will go up after May 20.
Will make this short and sweet. I’ve heard some locals predicting sideways to up a little before May 20, followed by a 1,000 point plunge.
Sounds like overly fearful thinking. Ridiculous, even.
However, I expect America, Singapore, and Taiwan to all trade up from here, give or take a little. I like the double bottom that is forming on the Dow, while the US economy is strong and interest rate hike fears are being fully priced in. Singapore follows the US closely, and has started moving up. Taiwan has been sold down and was a buy a few days ago. Great action in the daily KD.
As always, place stops on all trades. Be aware of the dark side, well explained in the following article about Belkin’s predictions…btw, this analyst predicts that all major markets are overpriced and will trade much lower from here on in. I am thinking it thru, but will stay with the bullish stance for the meantime. Besides, Belkin is giving a directional, not a timing.
Interesting info about his stance on the market. Also gave information that semiconductors are about to take a major hit. It seems like the whole market in the world is going to get clobbered… but for that to happen I think China will need to have its bubble burst first.