Here’s the first one of the season, just a small one and may not even make it here:
tropicalstormrisk.com/tracke … 1103W.html
Please take all precautions, especially in plains close to rivers. A drought plus any sudden rainfall means big trouble. Morakot and others have been especially devastating not only because of the amount of water poured but rather because the soil was parched. The drought now encopasses most of the island, so a lot of areas are at great risk now.
No cause to celebrate that this typhoon will bring some relief since the land is not ready to receive it. Wished the authorities would also take a more cautious stand, and not say “oh, it’s a mild typhoon, nothing to worry about, keep working overtime, slap-slap…”
I’m supposed to fly to Shanghai Thursday at noon. Keeping a close eye on this one…
The projected typhoon path has shifted eastward, while the projected wind strength has slightly decreased, both factors mean that the winds along the eastern coast of Taiwan and in the Yaeyama Islands will be less strong than initially anticipated.
One of my sources for periodically updated typhoon information is this page:
usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
Of interest to most of us will likely be the links “TC Warning Graphic” and “IR Satellite Imagery”
A useful list of technical terms associated with typhoons is here:
hurrnet.com/definitions.html
(as you know, hurricanes are typhoons by another name)
Some scattered news about this typhoon and some other stuff:
bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-0 … pital.html
Aere is bringing some east coast pptn today, but not that much. Path is still NE, I can’t imagine any of Taiwan’s airports will be closed over this.
My real concern is the weather this weekend, forecast charts show a stationary front over the island. I suppose this means 100% cloud cover, but what about the rainfall? Is it just going to pour down (am supposed to be doing outdoor stuff both days).
Yep, lots of rain for the east side -not for the parched west. Those of you on that side take care, go to higher, safer ground. Rain will start around Thursday, stay all weekend.
Better stay in all weekend. It will not be pleasant and could get dangerous. Don’t become Apple Daily’s next cover.
[quote=“Icon”]Yep, lots of rain for the east side -not for the parched west. Those of you on that side take care, go to higher, safer ground. Rain will start around Thursday, stay all weekend.
Better stay in all weekend. It will not be pleasant and could get dangerous. Don’t become Apple Daily’s next cover.[/quote]
So you really think it will get that bad? After listing to the east the Typhoon seems to be far enough away not to bring too much rain. Radar doesnt look too bad either… Never been to the east but will go to Yilan Friday and Saturday… would that be a problem?
The problem as I said is not teh amount of rain. The problem is the soil: it is too dry. Being the first real rain, up in the mountains, it may bring a lot of debris along with higher than usual amount of water. If you are downhill, you may think it’s peachy… when it is actually not, and be hit with a not so pleasant surprise, especially crossing bridges…
Typhoons can be quite deceptive: a little rain can bring a lot of damage, a whammer will pass so quickly it leaves us unscathed… Don’t make any plans too much ahead of time and keep an eye on local news and local conditions.
BTW, they are predicting that with that high pressure system, we will have another “one typhoon per week” -or a succession of typhoons, remember Shiraku?- again.
ps.
you going by train or bus or car? Driving conditions might be impaired on an already difficult road, trains may be delayed or stopped altogether… you will only know by Thursday or Friday.
Dear typhoon Gods,
Give me three hours Saturday morning and 3-4 hours Sunday afternoon without rain in Taipei.
Thank you.
I think Icon is giving us the ‘better safe than sorry’ line (which isn’t a bad thing). But this one doesn’t look bad to me so far. The satellite images don’t show a very wide cloud cover, and the storm track is pretty far east. I think if it stays east or edges further eastward we’ll get a bit of blustery weather and scattered rainfall. But these storms are very hard to predict. The thing to do is make sure that you have a way to stay updated on the weather situation as a storm is approaching, just in case it suddenly veers straight at you, and don’t plan any activities like hikes in dry riverbeds or mountain climbing if possible. If it does edge westward in its track a bit, that will make a big difference in terms of rainfall on Taiwan’s east coast. Look at the past track and then note the fatalities and landslides in the Philippines. 
Ya THINK? No WAY, dude! icon is a journalist! A member of the fourth estate! OBJECTIVITY! That’s her watchword!
In any case, its all academic. Master Wang’s magnitude 14 quake and 70-meter tidal wave will hit us tomorrow at 10:42 a.m., so that’ll be the end of that.
Now that you mention that… went downstairs to our little fuli se -downstairs small grocery store within public buildings- and lo and behold, it is picked clean. Typhoon preparations you say? Nope, the EOTWAWKI!!!
Ya THINK? No WAY, dude! icon is a journalist! A member of the fourth estate! OBJECTIVITY! That’s her watchword!
In any case, its all academic. Master Wang’s magnitude 14 quake and 70-meter tidal wave will hit us tomorrow at 10:42 a.m., so that’ll be the end of that.[/quote]
170 meter duck
Ya THINK? No WAY, dude! icon is a journalist! A member of the fourth estate! OBJECTIVITY! That’s her watchword!
In any case, its all academic. Master Wang’s magnitude 14 quake and 70-meter tidal wave will hit us tomorrow at 10:42 a.m., so that’ll be the end of that.[/quote]
170 meter duck[/quote]
Repeat after me, all is well, all is well…
So, Typhoon Aere has passed us by, but there will still be thunderstorms and rain over the weekend.
Look at the bright side: it will be cooler.
It’s as close as it’s going to get to us now, and nada!
The rain is coming from another pressure system. Yep, just saw the satellite images. It is way on its way to Japan.
They mentioned something about the plum rains arriving on the news yesterday.
We’ve already had our plum rains, and now we are sitting under our first typhoon (Okinawa)… and the water temp is 3 degrees lower than it should be at this time of year, as the Kuriosho current hasn’t done its usual thing. Weird weather this year.
Early days, but bears watching:
