At this exact point in time, they do not. A full-out war with the US would destroy the Chinese military. However, that victory would have to be a swift one as due to their numbers and the way the government can mobilize things, we could see yet another sleeping dragon wake from its slumber…(reference to the US, who was known for making refrigerators and nicknacks, like China, before it entered WW2)
[quote=“JillyPolla”]The problem is that ROC is essentially entirely reliant on America to provide its defense. America has a pretty nice deal set up here, being the only country with the ability and willingness to stop a mainland invasion. Thus they’re able to extract “protection fee” from Taiwan in the form of overpriced antiquated military hardware. The whole thing is a machination of the military industrial complex.
To be honest, it’s pretty sad because many people actually see it as a favor granted by the Americans. The fact is, if America really cared about protecting Taiwan, they’d do it for free instead of this current set up. The economic relationship with PRC is too good to give up, so they’re just doing all they can to get as much money from the Taiwanese people as possible.
The last time when America actually did anything was the third Taiwan Strait Crisis. Ever since the economic growth of China, America has pretty much given up on Taiwan.[/quote]
it is quite a pathetic show from america. they are putting up with all of china’s petulant demands and giving them none of their own. there has been a big currency imbalance so china has made big profits trading with america. usa asked china to sort out their currency, and obviously they didn’t(who do they need to, when they can just get away with whatever they like?). so did usa make any demands after that? nope, they just let them get away with whatever they like. chinese are not at all interested in playing fair, the american’s just do not have a clue how to deal with them.
and what kind of benefit do they really get from their economic relationship of being china’s bitch? a lot of cheap poorly made goods and a lot of fake rip off’s and being responsible for funding the rise of a nation of petulant commie brats… and soon to be a democracy thats getting straight up handed over for free because nobody wants to upset them.
[quote=“Lros”][quote=“JillyPolla”]The problem is that ROC is essentially entirely reliant on America to provide its defense. America has a pretty nice deal set up here, being the only country with the ability and willingness to stop a mainland invasion. Thus they’re able to extract “protection fee” from Taiwan in the form of overpriced antiquated military hardware. The whole thing is a machination of the military industrial complex.
To be honest, it’s pretty sad because many people actually see it as a favor granted by the Americans. The fact is, if America really cared about protecting Taiwan, they’d do it for free instead of this current set up. The economic relationship with PRC is too good to give up, so they’re just doing all they can to get as much money from the Taiwanese people as possible.
The last time when America actually did anything was the third Taiwan Strait Crisis. Ever since the economic growth of China, America has pretty much given up on Taiwan.[/quote]
it is quite a pathetic show from america. they are putting up with all of china’s petulant demands and giving them none of their own. there has been a big currency imbalance so china has made big profits trading with america. usa asked china to sort out their currency, and obviously they didn’t(who do they need to, when they can just get away with whatever they like?). so did usa make any demands after that? nope, they just let them get away with whatever they like. chinese are not at all interested in playing fair, the american’s just do not have a clue how to deal with them.
and what kind of benefit do they really get from their economic relationship of being china’s bitch? a lot of cheap poorly made goods and a lot of fake rip off’s and being responsible for funding the rise of a nation of petulant commie brats… and soon to be a democracy thats getting straight up handed over for free because nobody wants to upset them.[/quote]
Ahhh but see, you’re assuming the people in charge in the US (the super rich) actually care about national security. Sure Americans as a whole may not benefit from this relationship with China, but the super rich sure do.
[quote=“Lros”]it is quite a pathetic show from America. they are putting up with all of china’s petulant demands and giving them none of their own. there has been a big currency imbalance so china has made big profits trading with America. usa asked china to sort out their currency, and obviously they didn’t(who do they need to, when they can just get away with whatever they like?). so did usa make any demands after that? nope, they just let them get away with whatever they like. chinese are not at all interested in playing fair, the American’s just do not have a clue how to deal with them.
and what kind of benefit do they really get from their economic relationship of being china’s bitch? a lot of cheap poorly made goods and a lot of fake rip off’s and being responsible for funding the rise of a nation of petulant commie brats… and soon to be a democracy thats getting straight up handed over for free because nobody wants to upset them.[/quote]
A lot of people are living in the last century when it comes to the US-China dynamic. Nobody cares about Communism anymore. Heck, nobody in Washington even cares about oppressive governments and human rights. The US will wag its finger at China over rights abuses while patting the back of Vietnam, guilty of many of the same crimes, with its other hand.
The partnership (yes, it’s a partnership) with China is more nuanced. The US and China are both very interested in global stability. While stability meant defeating communism 50 years ago, today it has more to do with terrorism and acting as effective world police. China has the capability to do some policing – including navy escorts for ships in pirate-infested waters – and I’m sure that Washington is actually pleased to see some of the pressure taken off of the US and NATO. It’s about security as much as it’s about economics, with China being “the devil we know.”
Anyone who is very certain that either the US or China will win a military engagement doesn’t know what they’re taking about. There are too many factors – where the fighting happens, who else is involved, when it happens, public support, and most importantly of all, what the end game is. Without knowing all of these factors, it’s impossible to say with any certainty that one side will win.
If China got total control of Taiwan (one way or another), what would happen to us lot? Would non nationals have their ARC/APRC/JFRVs cancelled? Any one got any idea what might happen?
I’m sure most of you will be flown out of the country before shots are fired.
[quote=“Hokwongwei”][quote=“Lros”]it is quite a pathetic show from America. they are putting up with all of china’s petulant demands and giving them none of their own. there has been a big currency imbalance so china has made big profits trading with America. usa asked china to sort out their currency, and obviously they didn’t(who do they need to, when they can just get away with whatever they like?). so did usa make any demands after that? nope, they just let them get away with whatever they like. chinese are not at all interested in playing fair, the American’s just do not have a clue how to deal with them.
and what kind of benefit do they really get from their economic relationship of being china’s bitch? a lot of cheap poorly made goods and a lot of fake rip off’s and being responsible for funding the rise of a nation of petulant commie brats… and soon to be a democracy thats getting straight up handed over for free because nobody wants to upset them.[/quote]
A lot of people are living in the last century when it comes to the US-China dynamic. Nobody cares about Communism anymore. Heck, nobody in Washington even cares about oppressive governments and human rights. The US will wag its finger at China over rights abuses while patting the back of Vietnam, guilty of many of the same crimes, with its other hand.
The partnership (yes, it’s a partnership) with China is more nuanced. The US and China are both very interested in global stability. While stability meant defeating communism 50 years ago, today it has more to do with terrorism and acting as effective world police. China has the capability to do some policing – including navy escorts for ships in pirate-infested waters – and I’m sure that Washington is actually pleased to see some of the pressure taken off of the US and NATO. It’s about security as much as it’s about economics, with China being “the devil we know.”
Anyone who is very certain that either the US or China will win a military engagement doesn’t know what they’re taking about. There are too many factors – where the fighting happens, who else is involved, when it happens, public support, and most importantly of all, what the end game is. Without knowing all of these factors, it’s impossible to say with any certainty that one side will win.[/quote]
i dont think anyone is saying america shouldn’t have a relationship wit china, obviously they are not going away- for a while at least. i am saying they don’t have a freaking clue about how to deal with them. the chinese comminist party are complete hard-asses who do not, and never will play fair. the yanks needs to toughen up, they are being made a fool of in many ways and the only ones who are benefitting are the chinese party. taiwan getting handed over after all these years is just another to add to the list.
If this thread’s topic is really about another ‘expert’ suggesting a date and time in which China claims Taiwan will be ‘wheeled in by aw mighty awmy’, then I’m bored. Again.
and, if the Taiwanese want to pout about their big tough Ucle Sam not looking so ‘got yo back’, then go cry me some tears at Holiday KTV. You fight for what you want in this world, or you fall into line and take what you get. I’ve already made things clear, but I’ll repeat it again: CHINA DON’T FIGHT! They don’t fight because they usually lose, badly.They have, however, gotten very good at getting something close to what they want without it. This is the New China, smarter China
Every conflict involving Han Chinese has been nothing more than a strategic retreat, sprinkled with a few skirmish victories. They just play to survive; then regroup.Anyone remember Genghis Khan? Yuan Dynasty / Ming Dynasty anyone? The reason that China never wins a war is because the men with the swords and the guns have no coherence because they have no idea what they’re fighting for. Think about the Qing Dynasty for instance. They took power in 1644 as a foreign (Manchurian/Mongolian) ruling class. The first thing they did was make every man grow the ‘worst hair-do ever’. The men of the country were demoralized and deflated. The Qing never fielded a volunteer army. They allowed China to be overtaken by powerful foreign interests. Interests that did what they wanted because they possessed world class soldiers and world class equipment.
Taiwan has no volunteer army. China has no volunteer army. and…they never fight!
(someone mentioned the Korean War as an example of a Chinese military victory? seriously? 500,000 dead Chinese men to simply retain the status quo? For Kim Il Sung? That’s some sick math and not a human race I’d like to be part of)
But enough about that. Some people think there’ll be a collasal power shift where the super powers of the world bow at the feet of the ‘Great Dragon’. anything’s possible. Brittany spears won a Grammy you know.
A better topic (or scenario) to ponder is imagining a Pacific where China was truly able to invade and conquer a defended allied country. Where does this leave Eastern Asia? Especially Japan. Unlike the South Koreans and the South Vietnamese a few generations before, America has/will have a very capable fighting force in the Japanese people. A fighting force that despises the Chinese. Fervor is afoot with this race. If the day comes that Taiwan can actually be taken by force, Japan will have no reason not to believe they’re next.
It is because of the instability that ‘taking’ Taiwan will invoke, that China will never do it. They will never stop talking about it though. President Ma, with his Harvard brain, recognized this fact a long time ago and realized that war between the Chinas is a farce, so lets just make some money now, while enduring this unstoppable charade of ‘drama queen’ China.
Like I said the first time: CHINA DON’T FIGHT.
T
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[quote=“achdizzy1099”]
… China has no volunteer army. and…they never fight!
…
Like I said the first time: CHINA DON’T FIGHT.[/quote]
Man, you are SO out-of-touch!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_wars_and_battles
I thought China had already mounted Taiwan.
[quote=“achdizzy1099”] I’ve already made things clear, but I’ll repeat it again: CHINA DON’T FIGHT! They don’t fight because they usually lose, badly.They have, however, gotten very good at getting something close to what they want without it. This is the New China, smarter China
[/quote]
I agree with this part. Your point becomes very clear when it comes to marine warfare. Qing Dynasty, though extremely strong in the cavalry battle, never won any battle on the sea. The same can be said about PRC. China is almost a land-locked country. Her only oceanic front is blocked by Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Currently PRC is planning to occupy Taiwan without having to engage in any sea battle. They think KMT would hand over Taiwan nicely. It’s a futile narcissistic imagination.
In the 21st century, China battles using money and hope people look the other way. Well, there has to be a plug to this endless way of corruption. China’s already taking over Asia with its air pollution. Ugh… >__<
China warns U.S., Japan, Australia not to gang up in sea disputes
Suddenly China find herself in a gang-bang situation. PRC should have had thought twice before they banged other smaller guys.
If that amount of sexual deviance was looking to bang me I’d be worried too
I’m sure most of you will be flown out of the country before shots are fired.[/quote]
I don’t think we’d get a seat with all the local ‘Canadians’ running off first. Besides, we have family here, we are not going to abandon them, not that I think there will ever be a war anyway.
Now that you’ve ignored every fact provided in this thread, care to give us some of your own? What constitutes “always losing?”
The idea of China invading Japan is so preposterous it borders on parody.
I’m sure most of you will be flown out of the country before shots are fired.[/quote]
I don’t think we’d get a seat with all the local ‘Canadians’ running off first. Besides, we have family here, we are not going to abandon them, not that I think there will ever be a war anyway.[/quote]
Yeah, I wasn’t asking if I’d be able to escape or not. I guess I should have been more clear. I was mainly wondering what would be likely to happen to those of us with family and kids here? Would we (the foreign spouses) be likely to be deported?
Talking about a Chinese invasion. I read a few books from the Chung Kuo series a few years back (a sci-fi series set in future where China ruled): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chung_Kuo_(novel_series
I wonder if any of the stuff featured in the books actually happens. Those books are hard to come by, but you can order second hand copies on Amazon.
I’d guess foreign spouses would be okay but APRC holders may face changes.
I’ve no basis for that though, it’s just a thought.
Does anyone know what happened to foreign residents in Hong Kong in 1997?
I’m afraid that no amount of analysis is capable of taking away the uncertainty. To quote a well-known English 成語, “Always in motion the future is.”
The Chung Kuo series was an interesting idea, but poorly executed. The author obviously had little acquaintance with real-world Chinese culture.