This is an article from Bloomberg today:
Thoughts, comments?
Are Taiwan and mainland China headed toward reunification? Is this realistic? Would the Chinese invade as a last resort?
The Ma administration, like it or hate it, has sent Taiwan down the path to reunification (though at something of a snailâs pace in Beijingâs eyes).
China wants to make sure that any gains it has made during the Ma years are not undone as soon as the next DPP president is elected, and they are willing to use military threats to enforce that.
But China doesnât really want to invade Taiwan. What would they win from that? A piece of land, the inhabitants of which are all filled with nothing but hate for their invaders. Few have resisted Chinaâs use of economics as a weapon to conquer Taiwan, but the moment they start sending troops, the people here will be up in arms. In other words, Beijing is a proponent of honey instead of vinegar.
And despite what reports may make you believe, my understanding is that Taiwan lost its ability to launch an effective defense against Chinese forces some time ago.
A successful invasion by 2020 despite American assistance.
What I would like to know is, what would unification look like? Any pro-unification types on the board that could enlighten me?
[quote=âHokwongweiâ]
And despite what reports may make you believe, my understanding is that Taiwan lost its ability to launch an effective defense against Chinese forces some time ago.[/quote]
This article in no way disputed that, not sure any report in the world would. It was all about China beating the US.
[quote=âantarcticbeechâ]A successful invasion by 2020 despite American assistance.
What I would like to know is, what would unification look like? Any pro-unification types on the board that could enlighten me?[/quote]
take a look at hong kong.
it would most likely be the same deal as the one country, 2 systems policy used in hong kong, as that was designed originally for taiwan but back in those times taiwan had the sense to tell china where to go. so they used it on hong kong (and macau??)
hong kong is slowly being enveloped, even though the agreement says they have to let hong kong run as it is for 50 years. taiwan will most likely be the same.
i dont think there is any real risk of attack. they also said they will be powerful enough to take on american intervention. no chance in hell america and china will be fighting each other, but we know america are -vaguley- obliged to defend, based on history, i dont see why they wouldnât, if it DID come to that. this whole thing could be avoided if america didnât have a vague statement of defending taiwan and just out right said they would.
taiwanese donât seem to give much of a shit about this issue. they seem more interested in the bullshit news storyâs about hot macdonalds workers and garbage like that. i love the place but if it comes to unification, these people kind of got what they deserved.
I donât agree about Hong Kong. Taiwan is fundamentally different because Hong Kongers are very open to accepting they are part of a pan-Chinese identity (while many in Taiwan refuse to call themselves Chinese). At the same time, Hong Kong was handed over peacefully between nations that for the most part got along, and while many HKers were unhappy to see Beijing take over, a portion were also happy to see the English running dogs go home.
Very few in Taiwan look forward to unification â mostly big businesses and old, rich people â and it would inevitably drive up social tensions in Taiwan. I posit the fastest way to spur the Taiwan independence movement into taking concrete action rather than shooting water bottles around the legislature is to allow a Chinese takeover.
Anyone who believes the USA is interested in helping Taiwan out (unless there is a vested interest in doing so) is living in a Walter Mitty world.
The U.S and all the NATO countries would be outraged and Mr. Moon would write a very strong letter of condemnation to Beijing if China invaded. AlsoâŚsorry sweet FA else. Itâs all a game of politics. Taiwan is the weakest player and nobody cares. As mentioned , China has far better tactics to use than an invasion. 
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There would be more spitting and shouting in restaurants, people would be free to drive scooters without helmets on the wrong side of the road, and men with small willies and big guns would patrol discreetly around department stores looking for people thinking non-capitalist thoughts.
I donât think China would be too bothered about destroying the place (to save it?). Theyâd probably view that as a straightforward way of making it look more like China. As for ending up with a populace that hates the government, thatâs been de rigeur for all 5000 years of Chinaâs glorious history, with a few minor interruptions where the emperor (or local tough guy) turned out not to be an inbred psychopath.
Quite. It would be condemned, in the strongest possible terms. And then theyâd all get on with making money again. But I really donât think itâs imminent. Itâll probably happen when Chinaâs economy finally goes down the crapper (sometime around 2030 would be my guess) and the gubmint needs (a) a convenient scapegoat and (b) a target for fervent nationalism.
[quote=âshiadoaâ]Anyone who believes the USA is interested in helping Taiwan out (unless there is a vested interest in doing so) is living in a Walter Mitty world.
The U.S and all the NATO countries would be outraged and Mr. Moon would write a very strong letter of condemnation to Beijing if China invaded. AlsoâŚsorry sweet FA else. Itâs all a game of politics. Taiwan is the weakest player and nobody cares. As mentioned , China has far better tactics to use than an invasion. [/quote]
if the usa continues to remain ambiguous on the matter then we will never know, but usaâs âasian pivotâ policy leads me to believe they do not want china to get too big for its boots. less about defending taiwan and more about keeping china in check. i also read an article a few weeks ago from usa pretty much saying they will defend, like i said, i donât see why they wouldnât they are war mongers through and through.
[quote=âHokwongweiâ]I donât agree about Hong Kong. Taiwan is fundamentally different because Hong Kongers are very open to accepting they are part of a pan-Chinese identity (while many in Taiwan refuse to call themselves Chinese). At the same time, Hong Kong was handed over peacefully between nations that for the most part got along, and while many HKers were unhappy to see Beijing take over, a portion were also happy to see the English running dogs go home.
Very few in Taiwan look forward to unification â mostly big businesses and old, rich people â and it would inevitably drive up social tensions in Taiwan. I posit the fastest way to spur the Taiwan independence movement into taking concrete action rather than shooting water bottles around the legislature is to allow a Chinese takeover.[/quote]
and hong kongerâs dont have their own identity? the first chinese person i ever met was a guy from hong kongâŚwho told me to stop calling him chinese. they donât want to be a part of the main land as much as anyone. hong kongers call the mainlanders locustâs. doesnât sound like people who get along to meâŚ
it wouldnât be any different in taiwan and social tensions wouldnât make a blind bit of difference. if they are so concerned about unification why did the taiwanese vote in the pro china asskisser 2 times in a row?
The Chinese suck at war. They donât embrace conflict and they donât fight for what they believe in. In fact, they get what is given to them and thatâs that. Theyâve never won a single war without riding the coattails of a more powerful force. It also should be noted that they suck at building quality shit. War machines need be robust.
They donât love war. They do, however, love money. They love money more than they love love itself.
To review: Theyâre terrible at what they hate, and theyâre only so-so at what they love the most.
Anyone who thinks China is âwarringâ it up with anyone just donât know.
Itâs nothing but Jibber-Jabber!
T
Taiwan lost any hope of being an de jure independent nation when the Generalissimo refused the 2 Chinas offer.
[quote=âgavmasterflashâ]This is an article from Bloomberg today:
bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-0 ⌠-2020.html
Thoughts, comments?
Are Taiwan and mainland China headed toward reunification? Is this realistic? Would the Chinese invade as a last resort?[/quote]
This is old news. Taiwan will be bought and paid for by then anyway. Not a big chance of China needing to shoot a bunch of missiles at Taiwan in order to close the deal. You can thank that faithful old ally and defender of democracy (the U.S.) for doing their part to seal Taiwanâs fate 
An island of Han Chinese people who didnât seem to mind being Japanese for 50 years and then âMartial Lawâdâ for another 40. The Han Chinese people of Taiwan roll with the punches. They are not war mongers, they really only care that they have money and family. They are, basically, the same Han Chinese people who have been living the same Han Chinese way for a few thousand years.
Their only âindependenceâ was as an allied defended front-line territory in the war against communism. That war is now over.
T
The problem is that ROC is essentially entirely reliant on America to provide its defense. America has a pretty nice deal set up here, being the only country with the ability and willingness to stop a mainland invasion. Thus theyâre able to extract âprotection feeâ from Taiwan in the form of overpriced antiquated military hardware. The whole thing is a machination of the military industrial complex.
To be honest, itâs pretty sad because many people actually see it as a favor granted by the Americans. The fact is, if America really cared about protecting Taiwan, theyâd do it for free instead of this current set up. The economic relationship with PRC is too good to give up, so theyâre just doing all they can to get as much money from the Taiwanese people as possible.
The last time when America actually did anything was the third Taiwan Strait Crisis. Ever since the economic growth of China, America has pretty much given up on Taiwan.
[quote=âachdizzy1099â]An island of Han Chinese people who didnât seem to mind being Japanese for 50 years and then âMartial Lawâdâ for another 40. The Han Chinese people of Taiwan roll with the punches. They are not war mongers, they really only care that they have money and family. They are, basically, the same Han Chinese people who have been living the same Han Chinese way for a few thousand years.
Their only âindependenceâ was as an allied defended front-line territory in the war against communism. That war is now over.
T[/quote]
Any people would love to live in a peaceful life. But no matter how weak they are, they will fight when they are oppressed too much. The Taiwanese in the following mean the inhabitants on the island of Taiwan.
- The Dutch colonized part of Taiwan when the Dutch defeated the Spaniard in the Pacific Ocean and became a world super power. Taiwanese revolted against the Dutch.
- The Manchurian Qing Dynasty colonized part of Taiwan when the Manchurian were a world super power and even British ambassador knelt to the Manchurian emperor. Taiwanese revolted against the Manchurian several times.
- Japan Empire colonized all of Taiwan when the Japanese won decisively in the Russo-Japanese War and the first Sino-Japanese War and became a world super power. Taiwanese revolted against the Japanese several times.
- USA occupied Taiwan and sent in the Chinese KMT as the governing agency. The USA is the sole world super power and Chinese KMT is a brutal and the richest party in the world. Taiwanese revolted against the Chinese KMT for one time in large scale and have persistently fought for the democracy.
China is emerging as a new world super power and every nation respects the might of the Chinese. However, Taiwanese is the only people in the world that is fighting against China. The Taiwanese make money from the Chinese and use the money to buy weapons, which are explicitly intended to hurt the Chinese, from the American (a few from the corrupt French). So how weak you say the Taiwanese are?
You are right that the US doesnât want China to have too much influence in the Pacific. However, it may be too little too late. Considering Obama was supposed to be a Pacific President, itâs interesting just how much time, effort, and money his administration has invested in the Middle East (just like his predecessor). Basically the Asia Pivot is rhetoric. I donât doubt that Obama wanted to follow through on that rhetoric, but the reality is the Middle East is too time-consuming for the US to divert its interests, and internal US politics are such a mess that itâs difficult for him to get his way on anything.
[quote=âachdizzy1099â]The Chinese suck at war. They donât embrace conflict and they donât fight for what they believe in. In fact, they get what is given to them and thatâs that. Theyâve never won a single war without riding the coattails of a more powerful force. It also should be noted that they suck at building quality shit. War machines need be robust.
They donât love war. They do, however, love money. They love money more than they love love itself.
To review: Theyâre terrible at what they hate, and theyâre only so-so at what they love the most.
Anyone who thinks China is âwarringâ it up with anyone just donât know.
Itâs nothing but Jibber-Jabber!
T[/quote]
Which of Chinaâs wars are you basing this analysis on? The border skirmishes with India? The war limited war against a much weaker Vietnam? Or are we going back in history to the Republican or even imperial eras?
The fact is, China has a massive, modern army with some very decent equipment, but itâs untested in full-scare warfare so nobody really knows how it will perform.
This is not true: the Chinese have been fighting and winning wars for centuries. Many of them have been wars conquering or defending China, or civil wars and insurrections, but these are wars nonetheless.
How about the Chinese Civil War? The Korean War? Did the PLA suck in those conflicts?
Itâs really unknown how a war situation would pan out, but the Chinese certainly have the military power now to back up any threats.