Taiwanese Politics & Uncertainty - Bad time to move there?

Politics Taiwan Politics
21

The Peking Duck article brings up a good point.

It’s a total exaggeration to claim that Taiwan is headed for poverty. And from a statistical point of view, Taiwan shouldn’t be disadvantaged when compared with South Korea, Hong Kong, or Singapore.

But of course, you can’t ignore the political and emotional aspects of this debate. Can Taiwan “accept” a future in which its economy is approximately the same size as the economy of a smallish mainland province?

If Taiwan’s ego is built around being superior to mainland China, it’s destined to be disappointed. If Taiwan’s ego is one of disinterest or (even better!) shared glory, then it’s a different story.

22

cctang, the economy of Taiwan will never be like a smallish mainland province. Why?
Because all the capital intensive industry stays in Taiwan. The one who really generates money is kept here, while the manufacturing intensive industry goes to China. If what you are saying is true, than also SK, Japan and many others will have economies equal to a smallish mainland province. By then, for sure China will be the richest country in the world, have the highest standard of living and be the most desirable place on earth to live.
Do you really think that the people who are not on streets doing nothing but in their offices really working for something believe that Taiwan will be a small economy?
A few changes here and there and surelly Taiwan can make the most out of it. My opinion is that we should be working for this to happen (and we all know that the more Taiwan grows, the more China benifits). I’m doing my part everyday. Maybe if the political persons in Taiwan where more objective and realistic, then we would be all enjoying the success. But they only know how to live in gore…

23

A couple of years back, I attended a Mandarin sermon from a long time Anglican pastor. Based on his fairly heavy accent, I thought he was from Taiwan. Turns out he’s actually from Xiamen/Amoy (廈門) on the mainland. No surprise there really.

I also find Mandarin accents along the central dividing line of China (i.e. Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan – major cities along the Yangtze) to be very similar to those in northern Taiwan. If you go much further north in China, the r’s become quite noticeable. If you go much further south into Fujian and Guangdong, well, they typically have trouble with properly pronouncing certain Mandarin sounds so the accent is noticeably different as well (like southern Taiwan).

I personally find the Minnan (southern Fujian) accent to be quite endearing while the Cantonese accent to be quite annoying. I find excessive r’s to be annoying as well. Maybe it’s because I can hardly understand those people. :help:

Note that these are generalizations. YMMV.

24

Baloney. I’ve met more than one person in China who spoke English with mostly a “Chinese accent” but underneath that a very noticeable British accent. Similarly, I’m sure you can have a foreigner who has a terrible accent but who still obviously learned their Chinese in Taiwan.

But I think the most obvious clue is not the s/sh accent or the lack of r’s, but rather the different vocabulary. You say 腳踏車 or 計程車 and the game is up.

I went back to China last year to visit some old friends there. I met up with one friend who was sent to the countryside in Hunan to work with some local government officials there. My friend knew I had spent the past two years in Taiwan, but I didn’t want to let that on to his co-workers since I was getting a lot of grief from people. I was doing pretty well of faking my 那兒’s but I accidently let slip the word 國小 and they immediately caught on. I was forced to apologize for personally splitting up their motherland by drinking a shot of baijiu with everyone at the table. Bleh.

25

[quote=“mr_boogie”]cctang, the economy of Taiwan will never be like a smallish mainland province. Why?
Because all the capital intensive industry stays in Taiwan. The one who really generates money is kept here, while the manufacturing intensive industry goes to China. If what you are saying is true, than also SK, Japan and many others will have economies equal to a smallish mainland province. By then, for sure China will be the richest country in the world, have the highest standard of living and be the most desirable place on earth to live.[/quote]
I don’t really think you answered the question “why the economy of Taiwan will never be like a smallish mainland province”. “Never” is a long time :unamused: , and I sure can’t think of any industry that Taiwan has that mainland China will not absorb or be competitve in given time.

I don’t think China will necessarily have the highest standard of living, nor it will necessarily be the most desirable place on earth to live… but the “richest” country in the world with the largest economy? Of course. Given peace and stability in the international order, that’s pretty much a guarantee.

At current growth rates, Taiwan’s economy (in size, not per capita terms) will be passed by Guangdong in 5 years. It will be passed by Nanjing, Zhejiang, and Shandong in 10 years. If mainland China grows as projected (slowing down to 7-8% over the next 30 years), and if Taiwan’s economy grows at a rate comparable to Japan or western Europe… Taiwan’s economy will probably rank somewhere in the middle of Chinese provinces before I reach retirement age.

Apparently, some of the people on the streets are deluded and have a poor grasp of economics in general; their opinions about what they’re doing is pretty irrelevant. Apparently, some of the others understand the economics and are depressed about the concept (as the blog above mentions). And others understand the economics, and are positioning their lives in response.

26

Baloney. I’ve met more than one person in China who spoke English with mostly a “Chinese accent” but underneath that a very noticeable British accent. Similarly, I’m sure you can have a foreigner who has a terrible accent but who still obviously learned their Chinese in Taiwan.[/quote]
The English/Chinese comparison doesn’t really work, because intonation isn’t critical in English. If one word out of 10 comes across with British intonation, it’s easy enough to sense that “noticeable British accent”. In Chinese, if one character out of 10 comes out with Taiwanese intonation… I sure as heck wouldn’t be able to distinguish whether the FOB ex-pat just made a mistake (like he did on the other 9 character), or whether he was speaking the way he was taught.

Anyways, I’ve never personally met a single ex-pat who spoke Chinese well enough that this was tested. I’ve seen perfect intonation from some on TV, and I’ve met some who had understandable Chinese… but never one where I could make a guess as to where they learned their Chinese without listening to vocabulary, as you rightly pointed out.

27

[quote=“cctang”][quote=“thyrdrail”]
Well one important reason why I want to come to Taiwan is to learn Mandarin so I can do business in the region. … I’d rather learn traditional chinese. …

just so long as it’s not a beijing accent with the exaggerated ‘s’ ‘r’ sounds. i cant stand those - they sound so commie.[/quote]
I question your dedication to doing business in region if the two above comments represent your opinions on this issue.

And yes, Taiwanese-accented Mandarin is very distinctive. The most WS of the WSR are still very standard, but they’re in the far minority. But I don’t see that as really being an issue. For a laowai learning the language, you’d have to put in years and years of very hard work before anyone would be able to tell your Mandarin is “Taiwanese-accented”.[/quote]

what makes you think i’m a laowei?

from my discussions with other chinese/taiwanese people, traditional chinese system is the purest and classical form and it’s the preferred system by educated people thus highly respected. it’s also still used in hong kong, japan and to some extent korea. the chinese system used in china, although simplified and supposedly easier to learn, has been butchered. i plan to learn both systems eventually - classical system first, simplified system later.

28

[quote=“thyrdrail”]
what makes you think i’m a laowei?

from my discussions with other chinese/Taiwanese people, traditional chinese system is the purest and classical form and it’s the preferred system by educated people thus highly respected. it’s also still used in Hong Kong, Japan and to some extent Korea. the chinese system used in china, although simplified and supposedly easier to learn, has been butchered. i plan to learn both systems eventually - classical system first, simplified system later.[/quote]
Well, I don’t think the label of "what’ you are really matters. The point is, if you’re really starting from scratch, your accent won’t be noticed for quite a while. If you’re ethnic Chinese looking to learn more about your heritage, great for you.

Written Chinese has changed substantially over the past 2000 years; why stop now? I don’t disagree that traditional Chinese is more aesthetically pleasing, but if the point is to conduct business, aesthetics become far less important… there are very good reasons to adopt simplified. There’s a reason simplified Chinese is increasingly used for overseas teaching… and if Singapore adopted it, it must be because it’s more efficient = easier for making money. Let’s put it this way: at least 1.3 billion people on this planet use simplified Chinese every day. Approximately 25 million use traditional Chinese. If this was a case study, the answer would be easy.

But that said, most people can go back and forth without much difficulty. Learn whichever you prefer; the other will be usable whenever you need to lean on it.

(Japan uses Tang-dynasty Chinese, which is about equally familiar/unfamiliar to both traditional and simplified Chinese readers. And alas, you aren’t likely to see much written Chinese in the streets of Korea, these days.)

29

In the modern age, software to translate between simplified and tranditional makes the issue moot in my opinion. However, I find the PRC pingying system keyboard easier to enter characters than the zhuyingfuhao keyboard.

Here is the simple solution to the problem, study college level classical chinese on the mainland. They will have to teach traditional eventually, so that you can read the original text. But you’ll probably start talking and writing funny. People will think you’re a snob.

Traditional characters have snob appeal. Just walk into any high class restuarant on the mainland.

30

[quote=“ac_dropout”]In the modern age, software to translate between simplified and tranditional makes the issue moot in my opinion. However, I find the PRC pinyin system keyboard easier to enter characters than the zhuyingfuhao keyboard.

Here is the simple solution to the problem, study college level classical chinese on the mainland. They will have to teach traditional eventually, so that you can read the original text. But you’ll probably start talking and writing funny. People will think you’re a snob.

Traditional characters have snob appeal. Just walk into any high class restuarant on the mainland.[/quote]

i have a better solution: study classical chinese in taiwan where it’s widely used and has no snob appeal. then you can also learn simplified there as well. plus you have the added benefit of a free media and press with no censorship and more civil liberties where you wont get arrested, imprisoned and disappear all of a sudden for speaking your mind especially about the government.

has anybody gone to those deposition protests? exactly about how many people are there now at the rallies? the numbers quoted in the media are not consistent. the organizers have their own estimate which is usually higher than the police estimate. i read it’s as low as 300 on some days. so are they finally clearing out now…for now?

31

Snob appeal is still better than being called a spy/traitor for using simplified Chinese in Taiwan. Good luck with that under the green revolution.

32

the fact is, there are spies in taiwan. chinese spies and taiwanese spies spying for the chinese. some people THINK they are only trying to protect themselves and their country.

33

Uh, ok. And the best way to identify “a spy” is by the character set that they choose to write in? There are without a doubt Taiwanese spies on the mainland as well. In protection of our interests, I propose we lynch all those who write traditional Chinese.

I still don’t know whether you’re ethnic Chinese or not, but in any case, you really need to broaden your circle of Chinese/Taiwanese acquaintances… Sounds like you’ve been fed a whole barrel full of kool-aid.

34

[quote=“cctang”]Uh, ok. And the best way to identify “a spy” is by the character set that they choose to write in? There are without a doubt Taiwanese spies on the mainland as well. In protection of our interests, I propose we lynch all those who write traditional Chinese.

I still don’t know whether you’re ethnic Chinese or not, but in any case, you really need to broaden your circle of Chinese/Taiwanese acquaintances… Sounds like you’ve been fed a whole barrel full of kool-aid.[/quote]

my comment wasnt directed specifically at the written language issue. it was made in regards to your comment about paranoid people who suspect those who use the simplified writing system in taiwan as being spies. all i’m saying is that they are just looking out for their country i suppose. i’m not defending them, just trying to understand their thinking.

and i believe that people who use the traditional writing system in china are already being lynched as Taiwanese spies. the chinese also like to look out for their country. they’ve been lynching people they suspect as spies for taiwan left and right: poor farmers who speak out against corruption, journalists who write about china’s internal affairs, townspeople who complain about their drinking water being polluted by foreign and domestic factories, poor chinese who complained about being forced to live in colonies cuz they got AIDS from selling their blood to unsanitary blood banks, of course the attorneys who defend all those people, and the list goes on and on and on. they’re all taiwanese spies and justifiably imprisoned by the govt. the legal system in china is oh-so quick and convenient!!

p.s. i love kool-aid! it rocks.

35

I’m glad you’re already so informed about mainland China. You obviously have much to contribute on this issue.

I, for one, don’t have enough time to waste on yet another uninformed internet warrior. When you ultimately decide that you want to be treated as an intelligent individual capable of reasonable discussion, feel free to let the rest of us know.

36

i guess i should stop getting my information from unintelligent, uninformed sources like washington post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/05/AR2005080501505.html

Reporter In China Charged As Spy
2nd Detainee Has Ties to President

By Philip P. Pan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, August 6, 2005; Page A10

BEIJING, Aug. 5 – China formally charged a prominent Hong Kong journalist with spying for Taiwan on Friday, ratcheting up a politically sensitive investigation that has also resulted in the arrest of a mainland scholar with ties to China’s president, Hu Jintao.

The government decided to charge Ching Cheong, chief China correspondent for the Straits Times newspaper of Singapore, despite appeals for his release from Hong Kong political figures and international media organizations. But Ching’s family held out hope that the authorities might expel him after a quick trial rather than sentence him to prison.

Ching, 55, considered one of the most knowledgeable reporters covering China, is the first journalist from Hong Kong to be accused of espionage by the Beijing government since the former British colony’s return to Chinese sovereignty in 1997. If convicted, he could also be the first correspondent for a foreign newspaper to be imprisoned in China since Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution.

State security agents detained Ching on April 22 in the southern city of Guangzhou, where his wife and editors said he was trying to obtain a manuscript by an author who secretly conducted years of interviews with Zhao Ziyang, the Communist leader purged for opposing the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

Ching’s wife later accused the government of luring him to the mainland and detaining him in an attempt to get information about the manuscript and to intimidate other journalists and publishers from trying to obtain it. China’s Foreign Ministry immediately denied the allegation, saying Ching was detained on suspicion of espionage.

About the same time, the authorities detained two scholars at a government research organization, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Lu Jianhua, a well-known sociologist who is a longtime friend of Ching, and Chen Hui, an influential official in the academy’s administration.

Lu, 45, was considered a rising star in political and academic circles and appeared regularly on state television as a commentator. In recent years, he was working to develop a relationship with the office of President Hu and sometimes presented himself as an informal adviser with ties to the president.

A colleague of Lu and Chen, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the men also enjoyed good relations with officials in the government’s intelligence apparatus. He said it was extremely unusual for the authorities to detain such well-connected individuals, suggesting that the investigation was a politically motivated attempt by Hu’s rivals to embarrass the president.

The colleague said Lu made enemies by advocating more moderate policies toward Hong Kong and Taiwan. Lu also provided Hu’s office with independent assessments of the politics of both territories that sometimes contradicted reports provided by the government’s traditional policymaking bureaucracy, the colleague said…

btw, i know that reporter philip p. pan. graduate of harvard, 1992/1993. youngest bureau chief ever at washington post and based in beijing.

37

Do you have any idea who the Ching Chong case ended up? Look it up. The verdict and court findings were delivered a few months back. I don’t know if it was widely covered in the English press. If you are really hurting for “good” English-language of Chinese affairs, you should turn to the South China Morning Post or EastSouthWestNorth (zonaeuropa.com).

The Chinese legal system is inefficient, incompetent, and often misused for political reasons. Specifically, the definition of what it means to be a “spy” can be ambiguous, and by some standards, unfair. In the Ching case, he was writing research papers about mainland affairs on commission from a Taiwan-based “society”. Some insist the Taiwan-based society was purely an academic institution and not involved in espionage; I don’t know whether that’s true or not. But in balance, I believe Ching’s wife when she says that he’s a Chinese patriot who would’ve never participated in a scheme that he thought compromised Chinese interests in any way. Most likely, he was walking on the thin line between researching Chinese politics and exposing internal intrigues. I look forward to the day when that isn’t necessarily a crime, but that certainly isn’t today.

Now, that’s a fair characterization of the state of affairs in mainland China. Feel free to compare that with the nonsense you regurgitated in the earlier post. Philip Pan has always been a reasonably objective journalist, and he’s certainly at least informed about China. I somehow doubt he’d be very impressed with your earlier writings.

All in all, if you’re able to “understand” the need to treat simplified Chinese users as spies, perhaps you don’t have the intellectual integrity and moral high ground needed to criticize the Chinese legal system.

38

[quote=“cctang”]
The Chinese legal system is inefficient, incompetent, and often misused for political reasons. [/quote]

This is why we should treat CC Tang differently from AC Dropout (who is so self-consciously comical his sincerity is in doubt) and Zeugmite (who is as Neanderthal in his simple-mindedness as his stalactite handle). CC is clever enough, that when confronted with the obvious points, does not obstinately bang his head against the wall, but instead changes direction to other points that might portray China in a positive light. It’s almost admirable, in its way. I’d prefer it that he were rabidly defending the little mouse of Liechenstein or Andorra than the threatening gorilla of China, but that is geopolitics.

Why don’t we just drop the pretense? This is the American vs. the Chinese Empire, as will be the 21st century. This conflict will define the upcoming century. Let’s all just admit it and get on with it and make peace with the conflict, not let it fester into war (ala France and Germany and Russia in the past century…see what denial gets ya = WWI & WWII). Nobody wants WWIII between the only two possible superpowers in the world, the US and China, so let’s not let this little island get in the way, eh?

39

the ‘nonsense’ that i regurgitated are all actual events that have occurred and which have been widely reported in the media - in newspapers, on t.v. news channels, on the radio, on the internet and from word of mouth from people who have been there and know about it. granted, of course, that they havent been publicly reported in the place they occurred in - china.

i never said i “understand” the NEED to treat simplified chinese users as spies. i was merely inferring that i can understand why some taiwanese would be so PARANOID - which i have used a few times now - as to suspect people who use simplified chinese as being spies for china. when you’re constantly living in a tense situation and environment like tiny taiwan where you’re constantly under threat on a daily basis from a big evil enemy just across the strait, it can understandably make a few people PARANOID. it’s no different than some government secretly wiretapping its citizens without proper authorization, and therefore illegally, all in the name of fighting terrorism. or screening people at the airport who look a certain way, fits a particular profile, is a particular ethnicity, race, nationality, has a particular name, etc. that would arise suspicion due to precedence. many people think it’s unnecessary and attribute it to paranoia. but these are tense times in this world that we live in - i can certainly understand the foundation of those actions.

thank you!! hence, my original comment: “poor farmers who speak out against corruption, journalists who write about china’s internal affairs, townspeople who complain about their drinking water being polluted by foreign and domestic factories, poor chinese who complained about being forced to live in colonies cuz they got AIDS from selling their blood to unsanitary blood banks, of course the attorneys who defend all those people, and the list goes on and on and on.”

basically, anyone who criticizes or speaks out against the chinese government CAN BE LABELED AS A SPY.

i just compared it. and i need to thank you again for your assistance in proving my regurgitated nonsense with your characterization of the state of affairs in mainland china.

many of the real events i mentioned above were taken from articles written by philip p. pan himself. i know i may not be as articulate and intelligent as he (real smart family - dad is corporate attorney; two younger brothers graduated from harvard and college of william and mary), but i think he’d be flattered that i read his articles and used them as a reliable source.

south china morning post??? HAHAAAAAAA. there goes your credibility. i had my suspicions.

40

Quentin,

I think you’re neglecting that ac_dropout and Zeugmite are probably American passport-holders. I’m not a US citizen, but I also freely admit that I’m thankful for both the open generosity of the American people, and the open/stable/successful society that the Americans have built. Without these, I wouldn’t be blessed with half the things / opportunities that I’ve been given.

I don’t want to speak for others, but I’ve got a feeling that ac and Z would both join me in saying that while we hope to see China as a “winner” in the 21st century, I absolutely don’t want to see the United States become a “loser”. It’s unfair and inaccurate to say we’re necessarily taking sides here. This is not a zero-sum game; everyone can become rich, happy, and successful at the same time.

But that said, lemme be the first to say I agree with you: we should avoid conflict over Taiwan (not to mention a thousand other potential issues). Just put down your gun, step away from the island, and everything will work out just fine. :wink: