Tariffs, trade war

Rolls not continuing with Boom because they don’t see the commercial viability, leaving Overture without an engine platform for now. I’d bet even more money now that there’s no first flight in 2026.

I see supersonic planes failing because of emissions. Will probably be banned even if feasible as not fuel efficient.

  • The Biden administration plans next month to broaden curbs on U.S shipments to China of semiconductors used for artificial intelligence and chipmaking tools, several people familiar with the matter said.

  • The Commerce Department intends to publish new regulations based on restrictions communicated in letters earlier this year to three U.S. companies — KLA, Lam Research and Applied Materials, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

  • The letters, which the companies publicly acknowledged, forbade them from exporting chipmaking equipment to Chinese factories that produce advanced semiconductors with sub-14 nanometer processes unless the sellers obtain Commerce Department licenses.

Meanwhile, Xi leaves China for the first time since Covid started, and Russia says China supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ironically Putin has weakened his position by partnering so tightly with China on a wide range of issues. Once Russia loses the natural gas leverage over EU, they will have to rely heavily on China. China appears to have the upper hand in the relationship. Now that Russia is less diversified, they are at Xi’s mercy in a sense. Of course Putin still has military control, question is how sustainable is his relationship.

I think we can expect further deterioration of whatever trade relations are left at this point.

Insight here is Xi is making efforts to build its own “Chinese NATO” alliance called the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” to combat NATO, AUKUS, QUAD.

Xi’s new security alliance includes:

  • Russia

  • Kazakhstan

  • Kyrgyzstan

  • Tajikistan

  • Pakistan

  • Iran

  • Afghanistan

  • India — I am not clear if India is a member or was attending as a result of border tensions. It’s possible Modi might meet with Xi as well.

The meeting of the eight-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization comes at a time when Putin is isolated abroad following his invasion of Ukraine.

In a sense this is a major blow to Putin’s power and plans of a Greater Russia, or somewhat restoration of USSR territories. His military failure in Ukraine, coupled with crushing sanctions which have made Russia heavily reliant on China for energy purchases and trade has drastically weakened Russia’s standing. China meanwhile has positioned itself as the top threat to the world.

Too little too late

I’ve been here on and off 40 years and I’ve never seen anything like this, where all of a sudden ideological decision-making is more important than economic decision-making.

Joerg Wuttke

PRESIDENT, EU CHAMBER OF COMMERCE IN CHINA

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/20/europe-turns-on-china

Lazy businesses and a total lack of proactive thinking/planning/execution. At the very least, they are finally waking up.

The Federal Reserve made history on Wednesday, approving a third consecutive 75-basis-point hike

Consecutive 75-basis-point hikes - raising pressure on China. The how-low-can-you-go limbo continues as US and China wield the weight of their recessing economies against each other. US tries to lower consumer demand while China tries to lower export supplies. Who will break first?

Euro below parity. Next up: the pound. UKers better prepare to see it go below parity (to USD) in next 1-3 years.

With party Congress approaching, Xi’s faction continues to purge dissenters.

Little progress on tariffs… (by design)

Xi is expected to become more aggressive following the October meeting… eyes on Trade in the Taiwan Strait. Any disruption could throw Taiwan, Korea, Japan into turmoil.

China has taken a central role, with Russia targeted to lose most of its leverage by end of the year as countries drop reliance on Russian energy. Without energy and trade as leverage, Russia can only resort to use of force for leverage. And with their military blunders, Russia is leaning more and more towards using nuclear force.

Insight is that US is publicly stating that they want to “stop China from reaching the cutting edge industry”

This is a full on pivot of US strategy from Engagement to Containment.

We are in a Great Power conflict.

  • Leading chipmaking nations including the United States, South Korea and Japan are forming alliances, in part to secure their semiconductor supply chain and to stop China from reaching the cutting edge of the industry, analysts told CNBC.

  • The alliances underscore the importance of chips to economies and national security while at the same time highlighting a desire by countries to stem China’s advancement in the critical technology.

  • Still, there are some cracks beginning to appear between some of the partners, in particular South Korea and the United States.