Tariffs, trade war

Mass produced cheap shit can find a market.

China’s rebound has been disappointing so far.

Meanwhile preparations under way:

Fed Rate hiked another 25 points after bank turmoil

US continues to suppress demand to inflict heavy damage on Chinese economy - it’s definitely working, but who will back down first before breaking?

As with other rate hikes, the Allied Nations will follow suit as Force Multipliers to maximize economic damage in China.

But the question is, how will the equation work as more countries switch to Yuan…too little too late?

Notable – Quad Summit cancelled.

“At present and in the future, local conflicts and turmoil are frequent, global problems are intensifying, and the world has entered a new period of turmoil and change,” Wang wrote.

“Various ‘black swan’ and ‘gray rhinoceros’ events may occur at any time, especially with the containing, encircling, decoupling, suppressing, and military threats of some Western nations,” he said.

Is the Chinese annexation of Russia complete? Putin’s role has dramatically diminished to the levels of a Kim Kong Un type puppet dictator as government and military guidance at the highest levels has transferred over from Moscow to Beijing.

Allegedly there was a tense US-China military encounter near Hong Kong the day before the Jan 6 riots in DC.

China and the US became locked in an intense military confrontation as close as 150km from Hong Kong in early 2021, prompting the US to destroy its own floating sonars to prevent them from falling into Beijing’s hands, it is revealed for the first time.

G7 Meeting to take place in Hiroshima, Japan (symbolic!) to discuss dire China relations and how to deal with an increasingly belligerent China.

Mentioned further up the thread - the US and China have been in an economic game of limbo to see who can go lower without completely breaking.

China cut off supplies then reopened with constrained supply chain with Covid, so the U.S. reduced demand even more. The tit for tat continued with progressively extreme measures on each side.

In the face of decoupling, the US which has successfully wielded inflation, and inflationary measures such as rate hikes to suppress global demand on Chinese made goods is now looking at a golden opportunity to hit China with a potential knockout blow.

A US Debt Default.

A US Debt Default could be the non-military confrontation Retaliation that they have been looking for. The stage appears to be set to disguise the US strategy to counter China as merely some domestic political infighting between the Democrats and Republicans. But make no mistake - this is about China.

debt default projections suggest a ~45% drop in the stock market.

I would say, if the US strategy is to counter China and avoid direct military conflict - a U.S. Debt Default could be a powerful tool to bring China to its knees over the next 2 years.

The only question is if the US is willing to endure this…
It’s important to note that China was willing to endure unleashing a virus on itself yo counter the U.S. Trade War… so there is a definitely a chance the US is considering this retaliatory action.

China places restrictions on some Micron chip products in escalating Trade War with the US

US warns China again…

Biden stressed that “We’re not looking to decouple from China, we’re looking to de-risk and diversify." Biden said that G7 leaders agreed that this would be achieved by diversifying supply chains, joining forces in resisting economic coercion by Beijing, and protecting a “narrow set of advanced technologies” vital for national security.

Biden then said, “And there is clear understanding among most of our allies that, in fact, if China were to act unilaterally, there would be a response.” However, he stressed that he does not believe that a conflict is inevitable between China and “the United States and the West and/or Japan and Korea and the Quad.”

US-China trade talks after G7 vows to “de-risk”

China’s factory production hits lowest level since the end of Zero-Covid

A sign that US strategy to reduce demand on Chinese made goods is working. The overall strategy entails suppressing consumer spending on China made goods through inflationary pressures in the US, and force-multiplied by Allied nations mirroring US policies such as Fed rate hikes.

also notable progression in how the trade relationship is being described:

2018: “Trade War”
2020: “Decoupling”
2023: “De-Risking”

and on the business side of things - tech entrepreneurs seek to “De-China”

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Beijing has long been trying to remedy its vulnerable food and energy imports. They need a bulletproof supply chain if they intend to invade Taiwan or other Asian countries.

Surviving an embargo will be challenging. The West is uncertain about weaponizing hunger against the CCP, so an early sanction/embargo would likely be on Energy resources of which the Allied countries would be able to intercept far from China.

Meanwhile Russia’s 2nd pipeline to China through Mongolia has yet to be developed.

At the moment the Allied Nations are sticking with an “economic embargo” in the sense that the consumption of China-made goods is being significantly suppressed, straining China’s export driven economy and leading to very high unemployment & stifled post-lockdown recovery.

Xi tells national security team to “prepare for worst case scenarios”.

Xi said the “complexity and difficulty of the national security issues we now face have increased significantly.”

China must “adhere to bottom-line thinking and worst-case scenario thinking, and get ready to undergo the major tests of high winds and rough waves, and even perilous, storm seas,” he said.

While this has been happening, in parallel there are rumors that China is trying to backfill its trade losses by converting production of consumer goods to military and medical goods. It is notable that China has sought to convert Ferries and Shipping Containers for military purposes, and since 2020 has shut off transponders on more than half of its shipping fleet.

Maintaining Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China under these circumstances is very high risk.