The narratives about Trump thread.


#3887

They the swamp, people!
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#3888

Yes the logical option is to reduce debt to GDP by growing GDP but US deficit in 2018 was about 4 percent while growth has almost definitely remained below 2.5 (forecasts projected about 3 but projections are universally downgraded after the global slowdown in Q4 -->>https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retail-sales-slump-endangers-trump-goal-of-3-gdp-2019-02-14). That will still increase debt to GDP. Not to mention that a lot of economists think the current growth spurt will be short lived.
The reason that US could deal with deficits so easily before was because of extremely high working-age population growth compared to now which increased GDP far too easily. Nowadays the only way to increase GDP, without immigration, is to improve productivity which is a lot harder than banging without a condom.


#3889

Yet somehow US GDP continues to grow. :grin:

It’s important to remember that half (or more) of the US governing class can provide a significant (possibly fatal) headwind to “the animal spirits” behind growth, a saying that continues to outlive predictions otherwise.

And let’s not forget that lower taxes on US business, corporate or otherwise, increase the likelihood that productivity will increase. You can make a good argument that education (of varying kinds) is also capable of increased productivity, but nothing Trump or the GOP has done to date stands in the way of innovation. And in America, historically, innovation is almost completely independent of education (instead more dependent on diversity: another question here).

Guess I’m not convinced that increases in productivity are outside the reach of the USA, despite our opposition to increased taxes and increased regulation of the kinds popular in the EU and Canada.


#3890

Kind of avoided commenting on the facts that discredited your claims and instead focused on the less important opinion-based parts of my comment that were only added for extra context.

Good economic years of yesterday used to be 5 percent-ish growth not 2.x percent. The difference is largely down to population growth, so I maintain my claim.


#3891

Wot?!

Seriously, I have no idea what you mean. What facts?


#3892

Let me paraphrase if that is not clear. You can’t decrease debt to GDP ratio when deficit is 4 percent but growth is 3 percent (it almost definitely is not even 3). So Trump’s approach has not worked well enough to decrease debt to GDP ratio.
You can debate his approach and credit him with great growth and I’m not arguing with that. I think that he did really well but not as much as his supporters claim. Anyway that’s besides the point, which is that despite his achievements you can’t claim that this approach will reduce debt burden.


#3893

This is only true when the deficit is equal to or greater than GDP.

If you’re a small-business owner in Taiwan, as you’ve lead me to believe you are, then God help you and your family - unless your wife bears the brains in the family (I hope).

Are you by any chance a millennial of ours (US citizenship)?


#3894

I don’t know what led you to believe that but I am not. I am working in a university in Taiwan right now.
I’m not American but studied in the US for a few years and consider myself American culturally. I am also a millennial.
You are right the percentages are not necessarily comparable. I have not done the math but I will.


#3895

Shocking.

Do the math, dude.

Jesus H Christ, I am a bottle of South African cab sav and a bottle of Bordeaux down and I fiercely worry for the Commonwealth (no worries, there’s probably a medal waiting on you for what, diverse opinion or something).


#3896

Lol dude what’s your problem? you have zero evidence showing that Trump is reducing debt and yet feel righteous. Why? because you are not a millennial?
Don’t tell me you also think calling an emergency was a good idea.


#3897

It’s the trend that I follow (GDP up), not righteousness. And GDP is up, no doubt about it.

And I do not think declaring emergency powers was a good idea, far from it. I’m willing to punt to the Judiciary in order to avoid complete collapse of the government, but frankly I hope they decide against Trump. Even though I agree that a wall of some kind should be in place; it’s a matter of principle.

This is yet another time, among many so far, when I am prepared to abandon my support for the current President.

PS For the love of God, please work on your math skilz. You younguns plumb scare the fucking bejesus out of me with your total lack of critical thinking whilst simultaneously somehow occupying the “expert” slot when it comes to digital “IQ” … which btw is pretty much in doubt, and for good reason. God help us. All of us.


#3898

Well, good at least you try to be objective then.
My math skills have not proven wrong yet. I only concede that my approach is rough and needs more detailed calculations for an accurate number. FYI, US GDP at the end of 2018 was between 20.51 and 20.66 Trillion USD while deficit in 2018 calendar year was 900 Billion (900/20660=0.04356). The math will work out in my favor I just don’t know the exact number.
You seem to mistake me for the typical libtard millennial. I too think we need a wall of some sort, it’s stupid to let everyone just walk over illegally and then give them a path to citizenship. The democrats are just against it because it’s cool to say I like other people regardless of who the other person is now.
US and almost every single healthy advanced economy needs more immigration but it still should be up to the recipient country who gets to come in and who doesn’t. Therefore, I disagree with Trump as well because he is just anti-immigration.


#3899

if DPP or KMT was first party to allow foreigners to obtain Taiwan citizenship without giving up original citizenship, which Taiwanese political party do you think the foreigners would vote for, and for a long time?
That is Dem strategy in the US.


#3900

Judas Bastard I can respect that decision :joy: I can not think of any Party or individual politician , that is right on every issue.
There is an issue with the southern border , there is an issue with DACA people that should be resolved , and there is an issue with allowing illegal immigrants with no enforcement.
The big shame is that , virtue signalling aside, compromising seems to me to be the best way forward. Personally , I think Trump is being stopped by many people . That may be good for some things, but Obama screwed up some pretty big stuff and life went on .
It is fine and proper to hold a differing opinion and vote for Dem/Republican , but give them a chance when you have lost .


#3901

Well, obviously that follows. :eek:

I can’t tell you how much your generation scares the shit out of me and anybody else who thinks clearly. Is there any way your generation could set up a dipshit commission, or something that would disqualify admittance and/or on the basis of dipshittedness? (as long as we can identify)

Just for the record, if they ask: the branch you want is infantry, ok? Always, always demand that you be assigned to the infantry. You are so far far FAR, so much superior to the US Navy, the Marines, the Air Force, I mean it’s obvious you are cut out for the infantry. You deserve better, you deserve the infantry!

Best!


#3902

No he isn’t…he is anti illegal immigration. How about you let this one be decided on people who are actually americans and not american by culture…Both @bojack and I are from border states if i remember correctly. California and Texas respectfully, illegal immigration is a big issue, and so are drugs, guns, human trafficking coming across.


#3903

The Us economy has been breaking records recently, obviously thanks to the enlightened contribution of #44.
I think that people who want to prove who Trump’s doing is detrimental are not doing themselves a favor by criticizing him right now. The market is bound to flex downward because that’s how it works, and it will be the perfect time for blasting Sdrumpf for something (even if it was bound to happen).
Not now, during a period of healthy growth. Come on, wonky bros.


#3904

What does this even mean?

If the (budget)deficit is equal to or greater than GDP the US would be increasing their outstanding public debt with 100% or more of that years GDP.

The budget deficit for fiscal year 2018 is in the 4% range, and in 2019 its projected to be somewhere around 5%


#3905

I get hard as a brick wall :hugs:


#3906

The GDP is just a number, but whether you’re aware that average Americans are better off these days is a litmus test.

I’ll take workers over wonks any day.