The Never-Ending Break up of Russia

stoa1984 · February 26, 2023, 3:38am

The future break up or Russia was first predicted a decade ago in 2015:

The peril beyond Putin

Jul 30th 2015 | MOSCOW

The world rightly worries about the prospect of a Greater Russia. But a Lesser Russia could be just as troubling

UNDER Vladimir Putin’s presidency, Russia is seen in the outside world as an expansionist power trying to revise post-Soviet borders and rebuild an empire. But what if Russia itself—a country of nearly 200 nationalities that stretches across 11 time zones—is in danger of crumbling?

It would not be the first time that Russia tried aggression and expansion as a defence against modernisation and by doing so undermined its own territorial integrity. In 1904, when Russia was on the verge of a revolution, Nicholas II attempted to stave off change by looking for national traitors and starting a small war with Japan. The war ended a year later in Russia’s defeat and 12 years later the tsarist Russian empire faded away in a few days. In 1979, as Communist rule struggled under the weight of its own contradictions, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan; 12 years later the Soviet Union collapsed just as suddenly.

In 2011 Moscow’s urban middle class took to the streets to demand modernisation. Mr Putin responded by picking out alleged national traitors, annexing Crimea and starting a war against Ukraine. The idea that Russia’s latest foreign-policy adventures might end in the same way as previous ones—with the collapse of the state and disintegration of the country—is not as far-fetched as it might seem.

The Soviet Union came apart because it overstretched itself and ran out of money and ideas. Local elites saw no benefit in remaining part of a bankrupt country. It fragmented along the administrative borders of the 15 republics that made up the giant country.

Yet there was no reason why the process had to stop there. Indeed, many of Russia’s regions—including Siberia, Ural, Karelia and Tatarstan—declared their “sovereignty” at the time. To prevent further disintegration Russia’s then president, Boris Yeltsin, came up with the idea of a federation, promising each region as much “sovereignty as it could swallow”. Yeltsin made this promise in Kazan, the ancient capital of Tatarstan, which acquired many attributes of a separate state: a president, a constitution, a flag and, most important, its own budget. In exchange, Tatarstan promised to stay part of Russia.
…
In the words of Mikhail Iampolski, a historian, Russia at present resembles a khanate in which local princes receive a licence to rule from the chief khan in the Kremlin. For the past decade the main job of the Moscow-appointed governors has been to provide votes for Mr Putin. In exchange they received a share of oil revenues and the right to rule as they see fit. Chechnya under Ramzan Kadyrov, a former warlord installed by Mr Putin, is a grotesque illustration of this. In the most recent presidential election, Chechnya provided 99.7% of its votes for Mr Putin with a turnout of 99.6%. In return, Mr Kadyrov receives subsidies and freedom to subject his people to his own “informal” taxes and Islamic rules. Moscow pays a dictatorial and corrupt Chechnya a vast due in return for Mr Kadyrov pretending to be part of Russia and pledging loyalty to Mr Putin.
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If Mr Putin goes and the money runs out, Chechnya could be the first to break off. This would have a dramatic effect on the rest of the north Caucasus region. Neighbouring Dagestan, a far bigger and more complex republic than Chechnya, could fragment. A conflict in the Caucasus combined with the weakness of the central government in Russia could make other regions want to detach themselves from Moscow’s problems.

Tatarstan, home to 2m Muslim ethnic Tatars and 1.5m ethnic Russians, could declare itself the separate khanate it was in the 15th century. It has a strong identity, a diverse economy, which includes its own oil firm, and a well-educated ruling class. It would form a special relationship with Crimea, which Crimean Tartars (at last able to claim their historic land) would declare an independent state.

The Ural region could form a republic—as it tried to do in 1993—around Yekaterinburg, Russia’s fourth-largest city, or else it could form a union with Siberia. Siberia itself could revive its own identity, from a base in the cities of Krasnoyarsk and Irkutsk, and lay claim to its oil-and-gas riches, which it would sell to China. Unlike Russia, China might not have much interest in territorial expansion into the sparsely populated Far East and Siberia, but it could (and already does) colonise these regions economically. Vladivostok and Khabarovsk, two of the largest cities in the Far East, are more economically integrated with China and South Korea than they are with the European part of Russia.

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With China being the main beneficiary:

Why China Will Reclaim Siberia

Updated January 13, 2015, 11:54 AM

“A land without people for a people without land.” At the turn of the 20th century, that slogan promoted Jewish migration to Palestine. It could be recycled today, justifying a Chinese takeover of Siberia. Of course, Russia’s Asian hinterland isn’t really empty (and neither was Palestine). But Siberia is as resource-rich and people-poor as China is the opposite. The weight of that logic scares the Kremlin.

Moscow recently restored the Imperial Arch in the Far Eastern frontier town of Blagoveshchensk, declaring: “The earth along the Amur was, is and always will be Russian.” But Russia’s title to all of the land is only about 150 years old. And the sprawl of highrises in Heihe, the Chinese boomtown on the south bank of the Amur, right across from Blagoveshchensk, casts doubt on the “always will be” part of the old czarist slogan.

Siberia – the Asian part of Russia, east of the Ural Mountains – is immense. It takes up three-quarters of Russia’s land mass, the equivalent of the entire U.S. and India put together. It’s hard to imagine such a vast area changing hands. But like love, a border is real only if both sides believe in it. And on both sides of the Sino-Russian border, that belief is wavering.

The border, all 2,738 miles of it, is the legacy of the Convention of Peking of 1860 and other unequal pacts between a strong, expanding Russia and a weakened China after the Second Opium War. (Other European powers similarly encroached upon China, but from the south. Hence the former British foothold in Hong Kong, for example.)

The 1.35 billion Chinese people south of the border outnumber Russia’s 144 million almost 10 to 1. The discrepancy is even starker for Siberia on its own, home to barely 38 million people, and especially the border area, where only 6 million Russians face over 90 million Chinese. With intermarriage, trade and investment across that border, Siberians have realized that, for better or for worse, Beijing is a lot closer than Moscow.

The vast expanses of Siberia would provide not just room for China’s huddled masses, now squeezed into the coastal half of their country by the mountains and deserts of western China. The land is already providing China, “the factory of the world,” with much of its raw materials, especially oil, gas and timber. Increasingly, Chinese-owned factories in Siberia churn out finished goods, as if the region already were a part of the Middle Kingdom’s economy.

One day, China might want the globe to match the reality. In fact, Beijing could use Russia’s own strategy: hand out passports to sympathizers in contested areas, then move in militarily to “protect its citizens.” The Kremlin has tried that in Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and most recently the Crimea, all formally part of other post-Soviet states, but controlled by Moscow. And if Beijing chose to take Siberia by force, the only way Moscow could stop would be using nuclear weapons.

There is another path: Under Vladimir Putin, Russia is increasingly looking east for its future – building a Eurasian Union even wider than the one inaugurated recently in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, a staunch Moscow ally. Perhaps two existing blocs – the Eurasian one encompassing Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – could unite China, Russia and most of the 'stans. Putin’s critics fear that this economic integration would reduce Russia, especially Siberia, to a raw materials exporter beholden to Greater China. And as the Chinese learned from the humiliation of 1860, facts on the ground can become lines on the map.

▲ 2. China’s past core territories and new boundaries in the 21th century, as envisioned by U.S. author.
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A decade later, this forecast seems even more likely:

Almost half of top foreign-policy experts think Russia will become a failed state or break up by 2033, according to a new survey

Jan 9, 2023, 1:23 PM

•A new survey of foreign-policy experts found that 46% think Russia will fail or break up by 2033.

•The Ukraine war highlights the possibility of “internal problems” in Russia, said one author.

Nearly half of top foreign-policy experts think Russia will become a failed state or break up by 2033, according to a new survey by the Atlantic Council think tank.

The Financial Times was the first to report on the findings, which seem to suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine could have costly political consequences back home.

The survey found that 46% of the 167 experts surveyed, who come from academic, non-profit, governmental, and consultancy backgrounds, anticipate Russia’s collapse within the next decade.

The survey found that 40% of those surveyed foresee Russia breaking up internally within the next 10 years because of “revolution, civil war, political disintegration,” or another reason.

Just over a fifth (21%) considered Russia to be the most likely country to become a failed state within the next decade, more than double the next highest choice: Afghanistan.

Western officials believe that Putin has been weakened by his decision to invade Ukraine, with the Pentagon labeling the war a “massive strategic failure.”

Russia has drained its annual budget, been hit by sanctions, and suffered unexpected battlefield losses over the past 10 months.

A British government source said that Russia could take up to 30 years to rebuild its economic and military strength, according to The Times of London.

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Watch history, and decide for yourself (hint: Khazaria might soon meet the same fate as the legendary phoenix!):

▲ 1. 欧洲2500年风云 Europe Map in 2500 years. Published Feb 14, 2015

Taiwan_Luthiers · February 26, 2023, 4:00am

In Soviet Russia, post make YOU!!!

stoa1984 · February 26, 2023, 4:18am

I honestly can’t follow you talk about. It’s all like some alternative dimension type of stuff. Not trying to be rude, just trying to tell you, I can’t follow what’s going on with your “stuff”.

Mick · February 26, 2023, 4:31am

A note to @stoa1984 rules for the forum include.

5.09. Excessive quoting of external material. Do not post entire articles that are available elsewhere on the Internet. It is simply unnecessary and can make following the flow of the conversation difficult. Quoting a few paragraphs is better, as is posting a picture – aim to post just enough to give the gist of the article or the point you are trying to make. Provide a link at the end so that the reader can click through to the full content if they so choose. Try to keep the text relevant to the topic as much as possible.

Perhaps you can include a TLDR version and people can decide if the topic you are trying to discuss is worth investing the time to read the entire longer version.

Taiwan_Luthiers · February 26, 2023, 4:55am

Well honestly I can’t tell what his points are… and about 3 lines in few people will care.

Someone could just easily used chat bots and flooded the entire forum with non content.

TT · February 26, 2023, 5:01am

TT · February 26, 2023, 5:05am

But have you considered this?

Mick · February 26, 2023, 5:05am

I got as far as this claim.

In 2011 Moscow’s urban middle class took to the streets to demand modernisation. Mr Putin responded by picking out alleged national traitors, annexing Crimea and starting a war against Ukraine.

The claim is made without even a mention of the 2014 coup that saw the democratically elected President of Ukraine overthrown, the ushering in of virulent anti Russian measures such as getting rid of the Russian language as a national language as well as the ultra nationalists that travelled from the west of Ukraine to the east to burn down buildings of Russian speakers who protested any of this with them inside. No apparently according to the article Putins actions were motivated by something that happened in 2011.

Taiwan_Luthiers · February 26, 2023, 6:25am

Yea honestly you would normally post an article, not quote it, then ask a question about it to start a discussion, which would degenerate into nationalism and whatever. But quoting a bunch of different articles is just low effort posting.

stoa1984 · February 27, 2023, 10:00am

Read the conversation with John Bolton in light of the first post:

Transcript: A Conversation with John Bolton

February 24, 2023 at 11:00 a.m. EST

I would say the most threatened country in the world today from China is Ukraine.
…
This is, though, and the administration now acknowledges this–demonstrates that China has a real stake here in how this turns out. I think so far, China’s been the big winner of the Russia-Ukraine war,
…
China and Russia are increasingly in a closer relationship, which is–that’s gonna end up bad for the Russians by the end of the century. But it’s bad for us and Europe and Asia right now.
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What are American objectives here? It’s the stated position of the United States that Ukraine should be returned to full territorial integrity and sovereignty. Do we believe that? I don’t think the government does believe that. This morning, the secretary of Defense was asked that question, and he said, well, we’re going to leave that to Ukraine to decide. I don’t think it’s in America’s interest to do that.
…
China is the dominant partner here and will be for the rest of the century. The only real question I think is how much of a vassal state Russia is going to become if the current trends continue.

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And what a 180 degrees change from a century earlier:

The Yellow Russia Project 黃俄羅斯計劃

▲ 1. Map of the Yellow Russia Project

The Yellow Russia Project was a plan proposed by the Russian Empire to annex China’s northern territory during the frenzy of carve-up of China by the great powers at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, with the intention of turning the north of the Great Wall into the so-called “Yellow Russia” .

Introduction

The “Yellow Russia Project” was a plan of the Russian Tsar Nicholas II in the 19th century aimed at invading China. It was to draw a straight line from Mount Chogori on the Sino-Russian border in Xinjiang to Vladivostok , and to assign all the land north of this to Russia. . It was only after the February Revolution in Russia during the First World War that the Russian Empire was overthrown that this plot did not succeed completely.

Background

In the 19th century, when the Western powers invaded and carve up China, the Russian Empire acted as the vanguard of the invasion of China by virtue of its geographical advantages. Incorporate Xinjiang , Mongolia , and Northeast China, that is, northern China, into its embezzlement plan, especially coveting the Northeast. In addition to the same methods of aggression as those of the great powers, it also obtained the privilege of overhauling the railway in the Northeast. They stationed troops along the Dongqing Railway, which was built across the Northeast, and committed crimes, which aroused great indignation among the Chinese people. The Imperial Russian government then believed that the time had come for a formal invasion of Manchuria. Its Minister of War said: “This will give us an excuse to occupy Manchuria.”

Tsar Nicholas II saw this opportunity, and in order to realize his desire to turn Northeast China into “Yellow Russia” like Little Russia ( Ukraine ) and Belarus as part of Russia , he decided on July 9, 1900 On the 1st, he announced that he would be the commander-in-chief. Using the high-sounding excuse of “helping the Qing government establish order and stability”, he ordered the mobilization of 180,000 troops and marched into Northeast China in seven routes. Except for the Southwest 1st Route, which directly participated in the Eight-Power Allied Forces, and after completing the capture of Beijing and Tianjin, sent troops northward and out of Shanhaiguan to attack Jinzhou , and took action at the end of September. Since then, the people of Northeast China have suffered an unprecedented catastrophe.

Middle Eastern Railway

In order to implement this evil plan, the Russian imperial government forced the Qing government of China to sign a series of unequal treaties and plundered more than 1.5 million square kilometers of Chinese territory. In 1891, the Tsar began building a large railway that would run through Siberia . This large railway, regarded as the “spine” by Russia, starts from Moscow in the west, crosses eight time zones and 16 Eurasian rivers, crosses Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces in northeast China, with a length of more than 8,000 kilometers, and runs eastward to Vladivostok (now Vladivostok).

On June 3, 1896, Li Hongzhang and the Russian Empire signed the “Treaty of Mutual Assistance against the Enemy” (also known as the " Sino-Russian Secret Treaty "), allowing Russia to build a road across China’s Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces to Vladivostok Ke (Vladivostok) railway. Regardless of wartime or peacetime, Russia has the right to use the railway to transport the wounded, food and ordnance. Under the guise of jointly defending against the enemy, the “Sino-Russian Secret Treaty” coerced and defrauded the privilege of crossing the border and building roads, sowing the seeds of disaster for China. This railway is called the Middle Eastern Railway.

After the “Ili Treaty”, Russia signed several demarcation protocols with the Qing government, and cut off more than 30,000 square kilometers of land west of the Horgos River in Xinjiang from China. In 1898, Russia sent troops to forcibly occupied more than 20,000 square kilometers of land west of the Sarekol Ridge on the Pamir Plateau , and took most of the Pamir Plateau from China, resulting in the century-long undemarcated issue of the Pamir Plateau. It was not until 2001 that the People’s Republic of China signed a border treaty with Tajikistan and took back nearly 2,000 square kilometers of land.

During the construction of the Middle East Railway, the entire northeast land was engulfed in a sea of flames. The massacre of the Russian army, the extent of the invasion, and the magnitude of the conspiracy are outrageous.

More:

Cultural invasion

Hailanpao Massacre

Jiangdong sixty-four massacre

Invasion of the Northeast

Occupation of the Northeast

At this link:
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A shame that this topic can only be found written in Chinese language, but not in English, such as wiki, quora.

Mr_PBH · February 27, 2023, 7:57pm

That probably explains a lot.

Btw, Russia went into hospice in 1989.

And this:

Bolton never saw a weapon he didn’t want fired—- immediately.

QuaSaShao · February 27, 2023, 8:22pm

Boltaction has to be frustrated with Special Operation Ukrainian Freedom because it’s put Operation Iranian Freedom on the back burner for the foreseeable future.

stoa1984 · March 2, 2023, 12:14pm

Remember, according to the Marxist principle of ‘history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce’.

Back in 2022, @stoa1984 has already indicated why Russia would disintegrate, following the tragic fates of Germany and Japan:

30th July 2022

The gamble made by both the Emperor of Japan Hirohito on 7th July 1937, the German Chancellor Hitler on 22nd of June 1941, and the Russian President on 24th February 2022, are what history and the current public opinion perceives as gross miscalculations.

But this is far from the truth. Indeed, what the 3 powers had in mind before the start of these major conflicts were only swift military operations.

Emperor Hirohito authorized the Second Sino-Japanese War because he was assured by his generals the victory would be secured within 6 months. Hitler was deceived by the Chief of the German military-intelligence service Wilhelm Franz Canaris, believing in a far inferior Soviet Red Army, thus betting on a victory within 3 months.

Similarly Russia banked on a 3 days blitzkrieg to seize Kiev and force the surrender of the entire Ukraine.

The wrong initial intelligence leading to an unexpected resistance has then turned for each of the 3 theatres, into an unwanted lengthy attrition war, ending in the smoking ruins of Berlin and Tokyo.

To escape this deadly situation, there is only one way out for Russia. An escalation is necessary, to ensure the total control of Ukraine’s land and sea borders with NATO nations. A first thrust from Belarus to Transnistria in the North, and a second thrust from Kherson to Transnistria in the South. Deprived from further arm supplies, attrition will then force the Ukrainian besieged cities to surrender without any unnecessary ground assaults.

That is why following its initial failure, Russia has acknowledged that this war is no longer about who will control Ukraine, but about the very survival of Russia as a civilization.

And even China knows that, tabling on a future inevitable break up:

February 25, 2023

▲ 1. Chinese Outer Manchuria

The Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources on February 14 published a new version of its world map – directing a return to using the Chinese names of eight cities and areas occupied by the Russian Empire in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. |1| |2|

The Qing government lost large expanses of land in the northern region due to the invasion of the Russians. As Wikipedia recounts it, the story is that:

The Treaty of Nerchinsk, signed in 1689 after a series of conflicts, defined the Sino–Russian border as the Stanovoy Mountains and the Argun River, affirming Qing China’s sovereignty over the region now known as Outer Manchuria. However, after losing the Opium Wars, Qing China was forced to sign a series of treaties that gave away territories and ports to various Western powers as well as to Russia and Japan; these were collectively known as the Unequal Treaties. Starting with the Treaty of Aigun in 1858 and the Treaty of Peking in 1860, the Sino–Russian border was realigned in Russia’s favour along the Amur and Ussuri rivers. As a result, China lost the region now known as Outer Manchuria (an area of more than 1 million km2) and access to the Sea of Japan.
…
Ou Hanzong, a Jiangsu-based columnist, said on February 20 that Chinese people has lost 1.7 million square kilometers of territory including what’s now called the Russian Far East region, Mongolia and some areas in present-day Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, to the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union under unequal treaties since the late 19th century.

Ou said the reuse of Chinese names of the Far East cities reminds Chinese people of their wishes to recover the lost territory.
…
Beijing, while reverting to the use of the old Chinese names of the eight places, has not changed the English names.

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▲ 2. Beijing presents a map of the world using Chinese names for a number of Russian cities.

In this dedicated thread, @stoa1984 demonstrates that Starlink is indeed a Superweapon that could end the war in Ukraine within days, and even within hours, when by 2027 the orbital weapon system would be completed.

In addition, Starlink can intercept all nuclear weapons, rendering MAD impossible.

Read this:
https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-21st-centurys-directed-energy-weapon-of-mass-destruction-space-race/227744

And indeed, even Russian military experts have now changed their goalpost or rather war goal (despite my repeated warnings issued since 2011 but all fallen into deaf ears!):

Mr_PBH · March 2, 2023, 12:50pm

@Mr_PBH wonders why you are referring to yourself in the third person.

bingobango · March 2, 2023, 1:10pm

stoa1984:

Remember, according to the Marxist principle of ‘history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce’.

Back in 2022, @stoa1984 has already indicated why Russia would disintegrate, following the tragic fates of Germany and Japan:

30th July 2022

The gamble made by both the Emperor of Japan Hirohito on 7th July 1937, the German Chancellor Hitler on 22nd of June 1941, and the Russian President on 24th February 2022, are what history and the current public opinion perceives as gross miscalculations.

But this is far from the truth. Indeed, what the 3 powers had in mind before the start of these major conflicts were only swift military operations.

Emperor Hirohito authorized the Second Sino-Japanese War because he was assured by his generals the victory would be secured within 6 months. Hitler was deceived by the Chief of the German military-intelligence service Wilhelm Franz Canaris, believing in a far inferior Soviet Red Army, thus betting on a victory within 3 months.

Similarly Russia banked on a 3 days blitzkrieg to seize Kiev and force the surrender of the entire Ukraine.

The wrong initial intelligence leading to an unexpected resistance has then turned for each of the 3 theatres, into an unwanted lengthy attrition war, ending in the smoking ruins of Berlin and Tokyo.

To escape this deadly situation, there is only one way out for Russia. An escalation is necessary, to ensure the total control of Ukraine’s land and sea borders with NATO nations. A first thrust from Belarus to Transnistria in the North, and a second thrust from Kherson to Transnistria in the South. Deprived from further arm supplies, attrition will then force the Ukrainian besieged cities to surrender without any unnecessary ground assaults.

That is why following its initial failure, Russia has acknowledged that this war is no longer about who will control Ukraine, but about the very survival of Russia as a civilization.

Medvedev says question of Russia’s existence to be decided together with that of human civilization

27.02.2023
“If the question of the existence of Russia itself seriously arises, it will be decided not at all on the Ukrainian front, but together with the question of the further existence of the entire human civilization,” Dmitry Medvedev said in an opinion piece published by the daily Izvestia.

Medvedev said history has demonstrated that any empire that collapses “buries half the world, or even more, under its rubble,” noting that those that wish for the downfall of Russia, and previously the Soviet Union, do not understand this.

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And even China knows that, tabling on a future inevitable break up:

February 25, 2023

▲ 1. Chinese Outer Manchuria

The Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources on February 14 published a new version of its world map – directing a return to using the Chinese names of eight cities and areas occupied by the Russian Empire in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. |1| |2|

The Qing government lost large expanses of land in the northern region due to the invasion of the Russians. As Wikipedia recounts it, the story is that:

The Treaty of Nerchinsk, signed in 1689 after a series of conflicts, defined the Sino–Russian border as the Stanovoy Mountains and the Argun River, affirming Qing China’s sovereignty over the region now known as Outer Manchuria. However, after losing the Opium Wars, Qing China was forced to sign a series of treaties that gave away territories and ports to various Western powers as well as to Russia and Japan; these were collectively known as the Unequal Treaties. Starting with the Treaty of Aigun in 1858 and the Treaty of Peking in 1860, the Sino–Russian border was realigned in Russia’s favour along the Amur and Ussuri rivers. As a result, China lost the region now known as Outer Manchuria (an area of more than 1 million km2) and access to the Sea of Japan.
…
Ou Hanzong, a Jiangsu-based columnist, said on February 20 that Chinese people has lost 1.7 million square kilometers of territory including what’s now called the Russian Far East region, Mongolia and some areas in present-day Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, to the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union under unequal treaties since the late 19th century.

Ou said the reuse of Chinese names of the Far East cities reminds Chinese people of their wishes to recover the lost territory.
…
Beijing, while reverting to the use of the old Chinese names of the eight places, has not changed the English names.

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|2|

▲ 2. Beijing presents a map of the world using Chinese names for a number of Russian cities.

In this dedicated thread, @stoa1984 demonstrates that Starlink is indeed a Superweapon that could end the war in Ukraine within days, and even within hours, when by 2027 the orbital weapon system would be completed.

In addition, Starlink can intercept all nuclear weapons, rendering MAD impossible.

Read this:
https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-21st-centurys-directed-energy-weapon-of-mass-destruction-space-race/227744

And indeed, even Russian military experts have now changed their goalpost or rather war goal (despite my repeated warnings issued since 2011 but all fallen into deaf ears!):

▲ 1. Dr. Yevgeny Buzhinsky: let’s touch Starlink

The Americans say that an attack on their space infrastructure is a declaration of war.
Well, let’s start with Starlink, a commercial structure that is used in the interests of the Department of Defense.
You can touch it. Let them feel it.
—— Dr. Yevgeny Buzhinsky, Lieutenant-General (Retired), Ph.D. in Military Sciences, 20th February 2023

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What has inspired @stoa1984 to post all of this information here? He seems quite passionate to disseminate his work, but what is his purpose in releasing such great quantities of it on – lets face it – a relatively obscure forum?

flatlandr · March 2, 2023, 1:15pm

Could @stoa1984 parse this video and tell me if the world will still need plumbers and ditch diggers?

TT · March 2, 2023, 1:23pm

You need to add at least one map, a few movies, and a videogame. Maybe Portal2 is a good choice

d2a6185a34de45cadeed8ebe4ab8ee99

Here’s a map

flatlandr · March 2, 2023, 1:29pm

Too Gen Y. This is more like it.

TT · March 2, 2023, 1:35pm

Good choice, comes with own map!

stoa1984 · March 2, 2023, 2:00pm

@stoa1984 is only one user name among the 1000 faces and 1000 hands of the OP.

Should one keep its wisdom for himself or is it better to share it with those the most in need of it?

Indeed, @stoa1984 has spared no effort since 2011 to educate the less endowed from Iran to Russia, including Pakistan, India and Thailand, etc… hopping from forum to BBS.

Well, @stoa1984 has not watched the video yet, but the opinion is that mankind is indeed already in the process of crossing the irreversible threshold of being replaced by an all Tesla Bot civilization.

As for the A.I., the equivalent of human level cognitive capacity was probably already achieved during the 1960s.

But what were not available then:

Synthetic robotic platform of small size. Processor not requiring house-size facilities and with cryogenic cooling system.
Portable miniaturized power source
Actuators as efficient as the biological muscle ones
Sensors small and cheap
Self-repairing, self-evolving robotic parts
Fast and low production cost

Six decades later, research have been completed in the following fields:

Synthetic robotic platform no heavier than a man can be produced, processing units alone reaching the 2.5 Petabytes of humans brain capacity can fit inside a Tesla Bot with no additional cumbersome cryogenic cooling system. Data link connectivity with orbital Starlink array allows cognitive capacity exceeding those of a basic human.
Starlink allows to power wirelessly from orbit all electrical robots, allowing the use of smaller batteries.
Artificial synthetic muscles have been developed, controlled by electric pulses
All type of miniaturized bio-sensors are available, including RGB camera, accelerometers, thermal sensors, vibration sensors, microphones, touch sensors, molecular sensors, pH sensors etc, all that can be mass produced at low costs and integrated into a Tesla Bot
No self-repairing, self-evolving robots are known to exists
Production cost has decreased several thousands fold