The next war

So with the US withdrawl from Afghanistan and indeed the entire Middle East, the worlds worst kept secret is the next war will be in Asia, with China in the US crosshairs.

2 recent events have complicated things:
1/ The recent visit by the VP to Vietnam. Vietnam is first choice as a potential flashpoint. With a substantial land border this would be the perfect launching pad for military action against China.

However this plan appears to have failed as Vietnam has clearly refused to be drawn into confrontation with China - despite being given a coast guard boat.

2/ Last weeks QUAD meeting - with India being the key chess piece.

This also seems to have failed given the extremely muted press release with a lack of rhetoric against China. Furthermore India, despite having a land border with China is not a good launching pad for military intervention in China with the Himalayas in the way.

What are the next viable options?

A South China Sea incident with a US warship colliding with and getting sunk by a gigantic Chinese container ship is another possibility but might be a hard sell to to the international community.

This leaves “defending Taiwan” as the only clear pretext for selling the next war.

What do people think? Is the unthinkable really going to happen? War between two nuclear powers with Taiwan in the middle?

I think the idea of Vietnam (along with the US) launching a land war against the PRC is ridiculous. If however the PRC tried anything against Vietnam, that is a different story.

Guy

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No you misunderstand me - Vietnam would not start a war with China - that is indeed ridiculous.

However it would be an ideal place to create a crises to allow US intervention ~ developing into an all out war in close proximity to Chinese industrial heartland cities.

Anyway its a moot pont - Vietnam clearly stated its not interested in playing.

Again I will say this is ridiculous. They will fight their way through the hills of Yunnan or Guangxi? Let’s just say that would be counterintuitive. But perhaps you like that as it seems you’re looking for some reason, any reason, to find for the US to get involved in a land war.

Meanwhile, ROC fighter jets are flying over Taipei City now as I type this response, evidently scrambling to meet you-know-who and their now regular incursions. If you want a flashpoint, you might find one there.

Guy

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Yep well thats the conclusion I have already come to as above - Taiwan is the only realistic place to kick off.

Just needs that final push to get China over the line and actually start something substantive - that justifies war.

I don’t get the part where the US wants to start a catastrophic war with another nuclear-capable nation.

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I know

Well who knows right? Its unthinkable but there are discussions about precisely this. The pointers are all heading that way - unless another crisis pops up someplace else.

What about the Korean peninsula? That used to be on everyone’s list. Or is the svelte Kim no longer crazy enough to spark something?

Isn’t Thailand a good staging area to attack or destabilize Guangzhou, the largest economy inside China? That is where many if Chiang’s army went to in addition to Taiwan and Burma - so the border should be easier to traverse than the Himalayas

Let’s start a war with China to cripple our own country as almost everything is now made there that we rely on like components for power stations, medicine, food, etc…Then again that may be a plan with those pulling the strings.

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Valid considerations.

Korea is perhaps too tricky with North Korea in the picture - and South Korea has also signalled its not keen on getting involved.

Having said that Japan does seem willing to join in. Perhaps its a bit far? A land connection is preferable in terms of logistics. Could end up drawing Russia in as well?

Thailand is actually a somewhat solid Chinese ally now. The US did not even bother trying to get them onside.

Indeed - well said - “with those pulling the strings”

All I know is something big is in the works. Hell the US even just pulled its Patriot missile systems out of Saudi Arabia. Unthinkable a year or two ago.

not just that, specifically a land invasion of one of the largest and most populous countries in the world… for no reason…

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Why the hell is this not in IP so I wouldn’t have to see it?

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Not exactly an invasion but a liberation :wink: Just the threat of land invasion from Vietnam would pose a major headache for Chinese generals that they would have to devote resources to counter. Land invasion not really needed.

The main objective is to subject the big Chinese cities to sustained air and naval bombardment - eliminating their industrial base and economy.

Also in terms of logistics for supply of ammo, missiles, air bases etc Vietnam is a solid option. Infinitely better than Taiwan where large formations of incoming US military hardware could be much more vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes on airports, ports etc.

… for no reason… :wink:

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This recent article suggests that US’s current fleet of submarines may well be capable of containing China’s ambitions and thwart an invasion of Taiwan or other nearby island country (Japan? the Philippines??), and if they can do this for the next 20 years, then China will age-out and no longer be in a position to threaten its island neighbors

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Thailand doesn’t share a border with China- Myanmar and Laos are in the way, countries not unfriendly to China- the area is mountainous and jungle-covered, with poor transportation, and is about a thousand miles from Guangzhou. The reason the KMT fled there after losing the civil war is that it was extremely remote and isolated, so neither the Chinese or Thai armies could winkle them out.
I’ve been to both northern Thailand and Xishuangbanna- not the best country for large-scale military operations.

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I thought the OP was thinking along the lines of Cuba or Turkey as a way for the US to threaten China. Something the former bases in the Philippines sort of did in the past.

Then again the idea of the US a pretext for war today, especially against the 2nd largest economy, is an unlikely one.

Your wish is the mods’ command. :rofl:

Guy

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Oh fuk oh fuk oh fuk I’m in IP!

Run away!

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