The Presidential Election Result

Politics Taiwan Politics
1

We’ve already discussed the campaigning and prospects for the presidential election extensively in various threads on Forumosa. Now that we’re within minutes of the opening of the polls, let us focus on the actual result.

While the voting is underway, what do you expect the numbers to be when the result is announced at around 7 o’clock this evening?

And when the result is announced, what do you have to say about it, as well as about related matters such as the response of the candidates and their supporters, and the implications of the voters’ decision for Taiwan?

2

I expect Chen to win 55% to 45%. With poor sport mainlanders rioting outside KMT HQ in PM.

Big day for Taiwan. The world is watching.

(And with over 700 reporters from overseas in country to report on the election, there should be some good intl coverage, for once…)

Most important of all, let’s all remain calm and civil here on the boards, as tempers tend to run high on days like this. Even though there are many different points of view, even among expats, let’s not imitate the Taiwanese psychos are start calling each other names. This could be a very dramatic day (and terrible night) in our lives…

FYI: Newswires are saying: QUOTE:

Some analysts said the assassination attempt could boost Chen’s chances in what has been a close race. Before the shootings, Soochow University political scientist Emile Sheng saw certain victory for …Lien Chan. Now, he’s not so sure.

“This will give supporters a sense of urgency and tragedy, and cause a higher turnout,” Sheng said.

3

My money’s on a two percentage point margin of victory for Lien and Soong, with Chen and other pan-blue leaders accepting the result with gracious submission to “the will of the people”. The strongest words against it will come from Lee Teng-hui, but I don’t expect there to be any serious disturbances from pan-green supporters afterwards.

My wife will be voting for the good guys, and grim despair is likely to envelop the Omni household tonight.

4

Omni, all is not lost. Yet. Remember: “hope is that thing with wings” and this too: “Hope is for the hopeless.”

You can see which camp that puts me in then, huh? I still think ChenLu is gonna pull it off, by the grace of God!

NEWS QUOTES: Philip Yang, director of the Taiwan Security Research, a public policy center, said that the shooting could tip the votes of

5

Omni:

:smiley: :smiley: That strategy worked mightily in the rugby world cup. Thank you, I feel much better about the likely outcome now.

HG

6

I expect a narrow win for Lien Soong - perhaps no more than 2-3%. It’s possible that yesterdays events have further polarised people, and as someone has already mentioned many people are very sceptical about what happened.

My wife is voting blue, as are about 80% of friends and colleagues, so I suppose I lean that way. I’m also hoping for the expected TAIEX rally to 8,000 or so points if pan blue do win.

7

Prior to yesterday’s events I was thinking the result would be 53-47 in favour of Lien-Soong. I think the gap will be narrower than that now.

If the DPP can get 48 or 49% of the vote and have a convincing “victory” in the referendum it will be a good result for them. You must remember that six months ago nobody would have given A-bian a chance and some thought the DPP could only get 40% of the vote.

8

My wife just finished voting and she was pissed off and appalled at the number of people that didn’t carry their white referendum slip with them to pick up that ballot, but then again, we do live in BLUE/ORANGE area. She told me that she almost yelled out at them to point out that they forgot to carry their referendum ballot slip from home.

So I predict that the referendum will not get the quote of votes to matter. Sick really, but then again, the DPP should have put something in their that the KMT felt passionate enough to vote against. Something that they could not have stopped themselves from voting against in the referendum just to show their true BLUE colors. The way it is now, they just didn’t vote in the referendum at all.

9

I think its going to be a tie!

10

[quote=“Hobart”]My wife just finished voting and she was pissed off and appalled at the number of people that didn’t carry their white referendum slip with them to pick up that ballot, but then again, we do live in BLUE/ORANGE area. She told me that she almost yelled out at them to point out that they forgot to carry their referendum ballot slip from home.

So I predict that the referendum will not get the quote of votes to matter. Sick really, but then again, the DPP should have put something in their that the KMT felt passionate enough to vote against. Something that they could not have stopped themselves from voting against in the referendum just to show their true BLUE colors. The way it is now, they just didn’t vote in the referendum at all.[/quote]

dunno, my missus voted this morning in a staunchly blue area and she thought that more than half the people there had picked up the white slip. All it needs for the critical 50% is a small percentage of pan-blue voters to pick up the slip.

That said, I don’t feel the same way you do about the referendum. A referendum should be for real legislative action. This is nothing more than an election ploy.

11

Heh - I get to vote - my wife decided to give me the choice for her ballot. I predict a green win. (unless there are some hanging chad issues…)

12

Actually, a pan-green win would be more positive for TAIEX, at least in the short term.

The economy is in excellent shape, and foreign investors are very optimistic about its prospects under the current government. If Chen won re-election, TAIEX would quickly spurt above the 8,000-point mark, and would remain strong barring unforeseen eventualities.

But if the pan-blues win, it will usher in a period of uncertainty. They are sure to undo a lot of the DPP’s economic policies, even the most successful ones that have been strongly welcomed by foreign investors. Taiwan will quickly go back down the path of black gold, and nothing harms confidence in an economy more than the corruption, cronyism, and lack of transparency that the KMT has always epitomised.

Moreover, one of the Chen administration’s greatest successes has been to put the financial sector into much better shape, especially by its effective measures to cut non-performing loan (NPL) ratios. These high NPL ratios were built up under the KMT, which used banks the way the communist government in Beijing does, requiring them to extend huge ill-secured or unsecured loans to its own people, such as the Tuntex mega-thief Chen Yu-hao.

For all these reasons and more, including the period of policy void while discarded DPP policies await replacement by a new set of KMT policies, there will be many questions over the economy and compelling reasons for stock investors, especially foreign institutional investors, to reduce their positions in the market. There might be a brief jump as the KMT pours back some of the billions that it’s been pulling out of the market in an effort to bring it down prior to the election, but within a couple of weeks, TAIEX is almost sure to have fallen well below its current level.

13

I don’t think there’s a hope in hell of the referendum getting anywhere near half of the votes cast in the election. It seems quite evident that the pan-blues are going to refuse to pick up their referendum ballots en bloc, and as some of those who vote for Chen will probably not do so either for a variety of reasons, I’ll be surprised if there are as many as 40% of election voters casting a yes (or pair of yeses) in the referendum.

14

Actually, a pan-green win would be more positive for TAIEX, at least in the short term.

The economy is in excellent shape, and foreign investors are very optimistic about its prospects under the current government. If Chen won re-election, TAIEX would quickly spurt above the 8,000-point mark, and would remain strong barring unforeseen eventualities.

But if the pan-blues win, it will usher in a period of uncertainty. They are sure to undo a lot of the DPP’s economic policies, even the most successful ones that have been strongly welcomed by foreign investors. Taiwan will quickly go back down the path of black gold, and nothing harms confidence in an economy more than the corruption, cronyism, and lack of transparency that the KMT has always epitomised.

Moreover, one of the Chen administration’s greatest successes has been to put the financial sector into much better shape, especially by its effective measures to cut non-performing loan (NPL) ratios. These high NPL ratios were built up under the KMT, which used banks the way the communist government in Beijing does, requiring them to extend huge ill-secured or unsecured loans to its own people, such as the Tuntex mega-thief Chen Yu-hao.

For all these reasons and more, including the period of policy void while discarded DPP policies await replacement by a new set of KMT policies, there will be many questions over the economy and compelling reasons for stock investors, especially foreign institutional investors, to reduce their positions in the market. There might be a brief jump as the KMT pours back some of the billions that it’s been pulling out of the market in an effort to bring it down prior to the election, but within a couple of weeks, TAIEX is almost sure to have fallen well below its current level.[/quote]

well, if it turns out you are right you must know something everyone else doesn’t, because as far as i know every local and foreign securities house in taipei believes the opposite of what you say. the market is already leaning towards a kmt win - the rally on thursday and friday was largely on the back of people taking a position in the market in anticiapation of a kmt win. this was before the shooting incident however.

15

Both CTi and TVBS will be anouncing the results of their exit polls at 4:01pm. For my money, I’d stick with CTi as they’re perceived by most Taiwanese as being impartial (or at least less partial).

Cti has already announced the results of their exit polls on the referndum. I guess the ban on polls only covers candidates, not referendums. :unamused: Anyway, at the risk of spreading illegal poll results :wink: : 52% voted on the referendum, 36% did not. Obviously, the overwhelming majority of those who voted voted yes.

16

There’s less than half an hour to go until the voting closes and the exit polls give us the first confirmation of the result.

Taiwan’s fate is all but sealed now. The sickening certainty of a pan-blue win is making me more and more queasy.

17

CTi just reported that DPP’s internal polls predict a 200,000 vote victory

We shall see

18

the polls are closed - what do the exit polls say?

19

watching the exit polls come in now…IT’S CLOSE!!!

many key areas like taichung are coming is as 50-50.

20

Where’s the exit poll result? I thought it was supposed to be 4:01 or 4:10.

Really close at the mo. 35000:34000 to Chen. Doesn’t mean anything at this stage except that it’s going to be close.

Brian